The Mets have played well coming out of the All-Star break, going 9-5, which is a 104-win pace over 162 games. Of course, they haven’t played very much like that the rest of the 2019 season. In fact, it ties for the best 14-game stretch of the year. The only other time they went 9-5 this season was in the first 14 games. But when the Mets went 9-5 to start the year, there was a lot of optimism. Right now, there’s barely a shrug of the shoulders.
There’s always optimism at the start of the season. And there was even more than normal this year, bolstered by the aggressive words and actions of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen. There was his famous statement of, “Come get us!” And there was a boatload of transactions, too. The conventional wisdom was that there were four teams with a shot at the N.L. East title and the Mets had as much of a shot as the Braves, Nationals and Phillies.
That opening 14-game stretch included nine games against those other three East contenders and the Mets went 5-4. Sure, the record was padded with a three-game sweep of the Marlins but the path to a winning season is to hold your own against the contenders and clean up against the dregs. And the Mets were doing exactly that.
And on top of that, there was reason to believe that the Mets weren’t playing their best ball. They were winning despite getting virtually nothing from their pitchers. If they were 9-5 with a team ERA of 5.28 – just imagine how they would do once the pitching straightened itself out.
The ugly truth was that the pitching wasn’t going to straighten itself out, at least not in the first three months of the season. Through the end of June, the Mets had a staff ERA of 4.83 thanks to a starting rotation that underperformed and a bullpen that was just dreadful. And during that stretch, pitching coach Dave Eiland was canned.
The fourth month of the season didn’t start out much better. The Mets played five games in July before the break and their pitchers allowed 27 runs in 45 innings. The bullpen surrendered 10 runs in 15.1 IP. The question at the break was if the Mets could avoid falling behind the Marlins in a season where playoff dreams once danced in their heads.
But in the last 14 games, the Mets have a team ERA of 2.62 with excellent efforts from both the starters (2.50 ERA) and relievers (2.83 ERA) in this span. The quality of teams played isn’t as strong as in the opening 14 games of the season but that’s balanced by the number of road games, where the Mets have not performed well at all this year, including a trip to the West Coast.
Right now, the Mets are closer to second place than they are to last place.
The second place team in the East right now is the Nationals. They began the year in a funk due in large part to a bullpen that was horrible. But the Nats made a few moves, began to get better bullpen results and are now viewed as essentially the only threat in the division to the Braves. The Nats went through a stretch where they were 19-7 and all you heard about was their improved pitching. No one mentioned the 12 games against the Marlins, Tigers and Royals and the six games against the reeling Phillies, who’ve beat up against the Mets and played like the Orioles against the rest of MLB since mid-June.
In their last 11 games, the Nats are 5-6, thanks to taking three out of four in a home series against the last-place Rockies. Anything you can say about the Mets in their current streak, you can say about the Nationals and what they did right before the All-Star break.
So, what do you think about the Nationals?
In their next 11 games, the Mets have four against the Pirates, three against the White Sox and four against the Marlins. Not exactly a murder’s row of opponents there. And then comes three against the Nationals at home. If you don’t view the Nats as world beaters, the Mets could enter their series in Atlanta on August 13 at .500 for the year and playing their best ball of the season.
But in the middle of that will be the new hard deadline for trades. The Mets have been rumored to be selling anything that isn’t bolted down. It may very well be the right approach to take. If the Mets can trade Noah Syndergaard for a current #4 SP and two guys who’ll be on their top 10 prospect list in December – with one of those in the top five – that might be the right thing to do. But it certainly would be a blow to their current squad.
My view is that the Mets are in a win-win position here with the trade deadline. If they sell off a Syndergaard and get good future value, it’s hard to look at that as a bad thing. The Mets have gotten into this situation in part because they never think about the future – it’s always what’s on the immediate horizon that counts. Taking a long-term view of things would be a healthy change.
But if they decide they didn’t get offered enough in return for their assets and hold pat, they establish that they’re not going to make a trade for the sake of making a trade. And let’s be honest – Van Wagenen needs a little bit of that credibility right now. Syndergaard will still have trade value in the offseason.
Last year at the trade deadline, they decided they weren’t offered enough for Zack Wheeler. And then Wheeler went on to have a great final two months of the season. Van Wagenen should hold firm to what he believes Syndergaard and Wheeler are worth. If a suitor meets that price – great! And if not, they can help lead the charge up the standings the final two months of the year. A repeat of last year’s 26-18 closing stretch, will have more meaning if it comes with a .500 starting point.
It will be interesting to see what they do. Rumors on Diaz as well. The bizarre rumor was trading Syndergaard to San Diego and then flipping some of the pieces for Stroman. It makes no sense.
My gut tells me that they wont trade Syndergaard. Wheeler yes, Diaz, maybe.
But who knows what is going on in the twisted mind of BVW.
I will scream if BVW trades Syndergaard for a bunch of A ball prospects.
The Mets are in a corner and if I can see it, so does every GM. Don’t expect any team to fall out of their chairs for Wheeler on a 2 month rental. There’s enough dark corners in Syndergaard and Diaz that returns won’t be cleaning the top 2 or 3 out of a deep farm system like SD or ATL. The flip side is that the team hangs on to Wheeler, to no end, and he goes to FA or takes the QO and the merry-go-round is back in business. If the Mets were to extend him, unless its like almost no salary for next season, then you already have a payroll at about expected levels. OK, so extend him and do nothing else, meanwhile get nothing this season, which is on the fast train right off the cliff.
Its a precarious situation to be sure. I think th eMets should be aiming super high, and also ready to accept someone under #1 in a farm system.
I think that Mets should move on from Syndergaard and Wheeler rather than look to extend them. The writing has been on the walls for years, the days of young talented SP under long term control is gone.
The team was supposed to be built around strong arms which isn’t viable at this point. So, pivot.
Try to work out a way to get Lux from the Dodgers or one of the Astros many talented bats (BVW has already dealt with Houston). Build the team around a strong offense of Alonso, McNeil, Conforto.
These trades make me nervous because these one for three or four deals seem to benefit the team who gets the one.
I think the problem here is more of BVW making a name for himself rather than being ultra-shrewd in making the right moves to build the team.
Yeah, I agree, I don’t believe that the Mets need to come away with someone else’s top prospect. Especially in regards to a potential Syndergaard trade, it seems like the Mets are looking for both quantity and quality. And maybe that means the top guy in the deal is a team’s third-best prospect. Recall that’s where Syndergaard himself was ranked on the Blue Jays’ top prospect list by BA before the Mets acquired him and where Wheeler was ranked by John Sickels before the 2011 season.
Syndergaard is the one that should be traded because , in all likelihood, we would get the most good players for him. With Syndergaard they don’t have to trade him at this time . Wheeler should have been extended last winter. They need to do that now or trade him for the best option available as long it is better than a qualifying draft pick. Let’s face it, would you give Wheeler a qualifying offer for one year at 19 million dollars? He is not good enough for that so extend him for a reasonable ,fair salary or trade him.
If Mets don’t get two high prospects and a SP, they need to keep Thor and see what the offseason brings when all teams and not just the playoff contenders are looking to improve rosters. If the BP keeps improving, he could end up with something like a 13-14 win season and value would still be high. As for Wheeler,
I am a fan and wish the Mets would keep and extend him. At 7-6 and a relatively high mid 4’s ERA, the fact he wants to stay, it could be a bargain to keep him, especially if Mets really want to trade Thor in the winter and get 3-4 players to help them build (not to mention undo to some extent the Cano / Diaz trade). Finally, I am not so sure Mets are done .
They have next 11 games with teams that they can beat: 4 Pirates, 3 White Sox, 4 Marlins.
This is their chance to get back to .500 and beyond, 6 games out of the WC race. If they can go 9-2, 8-3, and get within 3-4 games of WC with most of Aug and all of Sept, who knows..? They still have many games with Marlins, Nats and Phils, the likely teams they would have to beat out to reach WC. The other WC is coming from the Central.
Ya gotta believe, right ?
Yes break up the team and then get stuck looking at Cano getting old. Ohhh, can’t wait for these idiots in charge to sc$$w everything up.