If it was somehow possible to do the impossible, and remove the month of the June from this season for the New York Mets, things would be a lot more optimistic than they currently look. Sure, the team is absolutely surging at the moment, with the help of playing some teams that aren’t exactly competitive. Their starting pitching has begun to mow down hitters, consistently, just like everyone had expected to from the onset of the season. After rumors swirled about them being potentially traded, both Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard delivered statement performances on the mound, helping their team to victory against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Despite all the positive momentum, the Mets are still only given a 7.9% chance to make the playoffs by Baseball Reference, although it does sit higher with Fangraphs who give them a 21.8% chance to make the post season. The Mets, who need every single win that they are earning currently, are facing the repercussions of an atrocious month of June for the second consecutive year. Without the month of June, the Mets would have a record of 43-37, six games over the .500 mark. Since that is impossible though, the Mets simply need to play with the cards that they were dealt. Luckily for them, the cards have been dealt quite favorably in terms of the schedule.
The Mets are currently in the midst of the easiest part of their schedule. To their credit, they have done their job and beat down the teams that they needed to beat down. This has enabled them to put their name back into the conversation for making the playoffs. Their next games following the White Sox series are against the Pirates and the Marlins. Following that stretch however is when the true playoff abilities will be tested. A couple of the following series are against teams that are in the heat of the playoff race.
Following the series with the Marlins, the Mets will do battle with the Washington Nationals, who are currently on top of them in the Wild Card standings. This is a crucial series for the Mets, as they will be facing a division opponent in the Nationals that they have actually seen success against this season, with an 8-5 record. The Mets will also have the benefit of hosting the Nationals. The Mets have played significantly better at home this season, having a record of 28-20 at Citi Field.
The second will come against the Atlanta Braves, who seem to have the NL East locked up at this point, with a seven game advantage over the second place Phillies. The Braves have become a juggernaut this season, and the Mets have struggled against them. They are 4-6 against the Braves this season, and the games become more difficult for the Mets when you realize that they will play the Braves on the road. The Mets are 25-35 on the season when they play on the road, so it will not be a light task taking on the division leaders on the road. Following the Braves, the Mets will take on Kansas City, but following Kansas City, which plays on the same caliber as the teams the Mets are currently squaring off against, but will be challenging due to their speed.
It has been a fun stretch of baseball for the Mets. They have been winning at a voracious pace, and have played their way back into playoff conversations. While it is still a long shot that they will find themselves in the postseason, the Mets at least deserve credit for making their games have meaning in the month of August.
In reality, because they’ve dug themselves into a hole, every game is a playoff test, as playing well against the contenders will be for nothing if they can’t clean up against the bottom feeders.
For those of you with access to The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal penned a terrific in depth article about the Mets today, trying to unravel the situation at the deadline, while keeping an eye on payroll considerations.
Very good read.