Went to look up Brandon Nimmo’s Spring Training PA and came across something that caught my eye. This is not to be taken too seriously – it’s just interesting. Just as likely a coincidence as anything else. But these ST numbers were “right” more often than they were “wrong.”
Here are the numbers for all Mets hitters with more than 100 PA this season. First number is their regular season OPS and the second number is their ST OPS
Alonso – .979, 1.006
Rosario – .781, .998
Conforto – .862, .819
McNeil – .929, 1.005
Ramos – .761, .861
Frazier – .722, xxx
Cano – .710, 1.086
Davis – .888, .858
Lagares – .576, .496
Smith – .858, .831
Nimmo – .667, .862
Hechavarria – .611, .695
Nido – .577, .459
ST numbers missed badly on Cano, Rosario and Nimmo – although the last one comes with an asterisk. They were pretty good on Alonso, Davis and Smith. They were certainly directionally right on Lagares, Hechavarria and Nido. And since May 10, Ramos has an .840 OPS, which is right in line with his Spring numbers.
If we had looked at this at the AS break, Conforto, Hechavarria and Lagares would have been right on, too.
We were probably most interested in how the guys with 500 PA and fewer – Alonso, McNeil, Davis, Smith and Nido – when ST started were going to do. And their ST stats were a good indication.
This year. Just as likely to be a completely different outcome next Spring.
Following some nice news from the radio boys during the game, the Mets have 70% of their remaining games at home, where they are 34-21 or a .618 winning percentage. However, many of those incoming teams are very good. Here is the schedule:
Cleveland 3 (Cleveland has also cooled from their long hot streak)
Atlanta 3
Chicago 3
@Philly 3
@Washington 3
Phillies 3
Diamondbacks 4 (Flores coming back to hit some walkoffs. I’m nervous)
Dodgers 3 (I don’t think there’s a team I hate more right now. Between the Braves and Dodgers, it’s a tie)
@Colorado 3 (This is a series I don’t like. Murphy and company would love to make it a HR Derby)
@Cincinnati 3
Miami 4
Atlanta 3 (Wouldn’t it be cool if this was for all the marbles)
If the Mets continue to win 62% of their home games, that is 16 wins in 26 contests. If they go 7-5 in their road games (they should do much better because Philly, Cincinnati and Colorado suck), that’s 23 wins, or 87 for the year. I’m betting the over (and I want it to start with a 6-3 home stand) calling 19 home wins and 8 on the road. That’s a cool 91 wins. However, if the Braves play .500 ball, they have 92 wins. That’s where pulling a Matz too early makes a difference. Bottom line, the Mets have 6 games left against Atlanta and all at home: 5-1 is a must.
The Central division Gus is a mess. Chicago can’t win on the road. Milwaukee’s pitching comes and goes. St Louis the same. They will play each other and beat up one another. I see them all playing .500 down the stretch. The wildcard will come from the East. I think Washington and New York. Strasburg vs deGrom. Wow! Doesn’t get any better than that.
Thoughts on “Offseason Moves” based on Player Evaluation…. There is no Sports Franchise more capable of evaluating the value of their own players than the NE Patriots. They are also at evaluating possible In-coming players, via Draft/Trade Free Agency.
The Mets and others might study what The Pats do…realizing that Football is an easier projection for Drafted Players and Backups, it is still critical to base Financial and Roster Moves on accurate “What You Know” info.
For Instance, 2 years ago—what did you Know about Nimmo? This year…What did you Know about Alonzo, McNeill, Smith???— you can really get best bang for your buck by knowing your own guys better. It opens up millions of dollars in acquisitions.
What would they have done differently if their Measure of McNeill was in line with What He Is?
What will they Know Next?…what will They do Next?
I think this is an important point and one which the Mets have gotten wrong too many times.
They tend not to believe in any hitting prospect in their system and give too much belief to pitching prospects on the farm. They completely botched the Jeff McNeil evaluation, which was okay prior to 2018 but unforgivable this past offseason. That poor evaluation cost them a 5-tool talent in Kelenic, who just happens to play the position they desperately need to fill ASAP. And they continue to believe in the Jacob Rhames of the world, despite all evidence to the contrary.
The MLB evaluations aren’t much better. The previous administration gave out the long-term deal to the wrong guy in Lagares. And didn’t do anything to lock up a SP to a deal that would buy out a free agent year or three at a big discount. Worked out good for them with Harvey but not so hot with deGrom or Syndergaard or Wheeler.
When they finally extend deGrom, the discount they get is either negligible or negative. Was he getting $36 million a year in free agency, which is what he’s getting now in 2021 and 2022, which would have been the first two years when he was no longer arb eligible?
I think Alderson did a good job lining up payroll to be able to afford guys under the Wilpon budget. He didn’t do a good job in anticipating which guys to extend when. Imagine how much better shape the org would be in if instead of extending Lagares at the start of 2015, he extended deGrom at the start of 2016. And BVW has painted the Mets into a corner with the deGrom extension when it came and the Cano deal.
Yup.
The deGrom Deal was done under severe duress. A year too late and a Year too early–all at the same time!!!!
Juan?…that may have been a misjudgement of the Person, more than the talent..IDK. But you can’t let it scare you off. Sometimes it just doesn’t work. Part a Big Team budget is mistakes and things that go Jelly Down…. you need to be Perfect Pittsburgh—the Mets can be wrong once in a while and still make payroll.
Yup , and I’ll raise you an yup Chris! Brian, you are spot-on.
Brian,
I agree with your overall point that the Mets have had some misses on evaluating their own players. But I will disagree a bit on the cost of not locking up the starters with long term deals that bought out some arb and FA years.
First, Cots notes that given the structure of the deGrom deal and its deferred payments, the present value is about $109 mil for 2019-23. I consider that a pretty good home town discount deal based on comps like Corbin. And, by not extending Harvey and Wheeler, the Mets avoided tremendous cost. The Nats extended Strasburg for $175 mil in 2016. Had the Mets extended Harvey after his 2015 performance, it would have likely been in the neighborhood of Strasburg money, and they would have gotten back zero on that deal. With Wheeler, he missed two seasons, and as Name points out regularly, barring his second half 2018, he has not been good. Again, big cost avoidance.
Cespedes has hurt big time, just like Wright before him, but the acquisition of Cano without amount $40 million from Seattle is the biggest burden by far. I’m not sure if this deal occurred because they underestimated McNeil, or if the valued McNeil properly and put Kelenic in the deal instead. My gut tells be that Brodie wanted to get his guy – Cano – with the bigtime closer, regardless of their valuation of McNeil. And, in fairness to the Met evaluators, McNeil had some weird injuries that stunted his evaluation, and then exploded on the scene in 2018, but like TJ Rivera before him, he did demonstrate his hit tool at several levels when healthy.
At the end of the day, it is a crap shoot until a guy shows he belongs in the bigs. The Mets have produced a lot of big leaguers recently, so while I can knock the franchise on many things, it is hard to be too critical on the extension front, especially with ownership that likely doesn’t allow management to pursue these deals more frequently.
I have a beef with the Tigers. Yes we know they’re tanking and “try” to lose as many games as possible. But to do it at the expense of a future Hall of Famer? Miguel Cabrera does not complain. He leads by example. The Tigers are using a kid batting .143 as DH. It’s fairly obvious what’s going on. Tanking at its finest but at the expense of Miggy not being able to add to his HOF totals is criminal. Release him or trade him while eating a good portion of his salary. I’ve never heard Miggy complain about management. He’s a professional. He’s classy.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml
Based on his present Production and Trajectory, The Tigers may be one of the few places where Miggy can Pad his Totals.
That’s a little unfair as Miggy cannot pad his numbers from the bench playing twice a week. That projects to less than 60 games a year. Trade him to Houston for some kids and eat 50-60% of his remaining salary.
So Houston would sit Guys who are Cheaper and Better to make way for Miggy?
Check your facts Pete – I don’t know why you are griping as Miggy has started 105 out of 123 games this year and 11 of the last 12…
Name I’m aware of the number of at bats Miggy has so far this year. My point is that the Tigers are in rebuilding mode and there is only one player left on this roster to watch.I believe he has two more years left on his albatross contract.. I understand Gardenhire has his marching orders to give the kids a chance to play. I know Miggy is rapidly fading along with playing skills. It’s just unfortunate set of circumstances the club finds itself with their last core player.
Yea… no. that’s not why you were ranting.
“Tanking at its finest but at the expense of Miggy not being able to add to his HOF totals is criminal.”
100% false and unfounded. I don’t know why you are trying to pivot and claim you were trying to say something else. I’m not trying to pick on you but it doesn’t add to the discussion if someone is just spewing false facts
Braves claimed Billy Hamilton, so we’ll see him a few times in division games
Excellent. Sure out.
Or designated runner and late inning defensive replacement.
So what. Everyone runs against the Mets. We have a GG person that actually hits better and plays CF. Lagares is our Billy Hamilton
Al Jackson passed away….
A story on Al Jackson from 2010
Great article!
I just used Houston as an example. Of course Detroit would have to eat a significant portion of his contract. Castellanos had Miggy batting behind him for protection and help add value to his production. Who did Miggy have? We talk about value a player provides, but what happens when a team is doing their “best” to lose?
Luis Castillo and Octavio Dotel got busted in the D.R. for money laundering.