J.D. Davis has played 400 innings in left field so far this season. Looking at all players in MLB to log at least 300 innings in left, we see he ranks tied for 35th in DRS with a (-7) mark and 39th with a (-16) UZR/150. Both systems see his range as the biggest problem. He ranks 38th out of 41 LFers with an .833 RZR. For points of comparison, Curtis Granderson checks in with an .849 RZR in LF and Kyle Schwarbher has an .854 mark.
If you’ve been following the team for a few years, you might recall that Lucas Duda played in the outfield. If you didn’t get to see that, he was as bad out there as you might imagine. He played 893.2 innings in his career in LF and in that span, he posted an .885 RZR.
Davis may be better in the OF than he is at 3B. But if that’s true, it’s a little frightening to think how bad he is at third.
If you’re one of the people who think the Mets don’t place enough emphasis on defense – certainly a rational POV – figuring out where and if to play Davis in the field on a regular basis is a question you should be pondering.
And playing Dom Smith out there makes JD look like the reincarnation of Mays and Clemente combined.
Smith has played 219 innings in LF this year, a little more than half of what Davis has played.
Davis (-7 DRS), Smith (-2 DRS)
Davis (-16 UZR/150), Smith (-22.2 UZR/150)
The sample sizes aren’t big enough for either player and the main two systems are split on what they see in the small amount of playing time. DRS thinks Smith has performed better while UZR thinks Davis is better.
It’s hard to imagine the Mets giving a starting job to Smith given the 2020 options. Now, something could happen where multiple people get injured and he finds himself back out there. But that’s fallback/worst-case scenario.
But Davis as the starting LFer (or 3B) is a real possibility.
Living proof that defensive metrics have some distance to go. Smith makes Duda look good in the OF.
It’s not that defensive metrics have some distance to go. It’s that it takes longer for defensive metrics to produce reliable results. General rule of thumb is it takes two years of defensive numbers to produce the results of one year of offensive numbers.
I aim to get as good at bashing Panik as you are with Smith. But I have miles to go, even though I have four years worth of full-time play to base my distaste while you don’t have anything near that.
🙂
The Mets will have interesting decesions to make this offseason, insomuach as they plant on upgrading the defense while extending/maintaining the line up. The emergence of Rosario is a huge factor here, so long as he can maintain his second have level of play to the finish line.
What is pretty certain is that McNeil is a solid fielder wherever he has played, JD and Dom are bad in FF, and Cano is in the statue phase of his career. Of Smith and Davis, I do think each cam modestly improve in LF, but regardless both ill be a liability. Davis at 3B is the bigger question, as it provides more options going forward. His showing with the Mets was poor, but he does have a cannon arm and in theory should be passable. If the Mets drop quickly out of the WC, he needs to play third daily for some basis of evaluation.
For my two cents, I’d prefer McNeil at 2B and Cano shipped out (ok, it’s dream time). I could even live with a Davis/Smith or Nimmo 2020 LF backup plan to Cespedes, but it would require the acquisition of a legit everyday 3B that can contribute with the bat and glove.
A healthy Nimmo is a starter, not a backup plan.
Unless he retires, you have to include Jed Lowrie in the plans. He’s got to be more likely to see the field than Cespedes.
I did forget about the $20 million dollar man. It must be old age, or is he more invisible than Cespedes.