As fans, we’re dealing with imperfect information. The best we can do is try to grab as much info as we can and combine that with historical precedent and common sense and use that to try to put the odds in our favor.
It was shocking when the Mets signed Rick Porcello because that deal either put them right at or slightly above the CBT threshold once arbitration salaries and pre-arb numbers are included. From the imperfect information we had, this deal didn’t make sense, especially since they had just signed Michael Wacha to (seemingly) be the fifth starter.
Then another piece of information came into the public domain. And that was that the Mets had reached a restructuring agreement with Yoenis Cespedes on his contract, thereby making more money available for the 2020 season.
Now the question is: Did the Cespedes money allow the Porcello signing or is there still $10 million or so more out there to go chase Player X?
The Mets have approximately $14,000,000 of Dead Money in David Wright and Vargas Salary against the 2020 Cap…that’s probably “Not Too Bad” as 7% against the total—- if you add Ces, It’s $24,000,000 and 12%.
You cannot say that they’re pinching pennies at this point, and last years Roster Plan was aggressive, if not wise in retrospect.
The Story ahead is about the Talent of The Baseball Management Team. Given a growing willingness to spend, will they compete on intellect as well as cash?
A Genius in the Dugout?.. a Genius in the GM Chair? …it’s a bigger Team today than it has ever been. The Stat Geeks and The Scouting Staffs need to be gathered and tended and fed…. It’s an exciting time in baseball. Maybe it’s a good time to be a Mets Fan
Last year, Nimmo had 44H, 46BB and 5HBP, meaning he had less hits than other means of getting on base in a partial season. Other than Barry Bonds in the 2000s, is this a common occurrence over a full season? Also, is there a way of using BB Reference search features to find these occurrences?
If you subscribe to the B-R Play Index, they have search parameters you can input to customize your search. Here you’d set Hits = X (50, 100 or whatever number) and then BB > X.
You can do it for free at FG but it will be an effort on your part. You would go the Leaderboards but the only thing you can customize is the number of PA. Then you would go to the “Standard” tab, where they have hits and walks on the same screen. You’d sort by hits and then just eyeball over to the walks column to see what you have there and whether or not it’s greater than the hits total.
The Mets are sitting around $160 million in 2020 payroll right now, so there is certainly room to spend. Whether they have the will or not, especially under the uncertain ownership situation, we shall see.
The Porcello move wasn’t so surprising, but my excpectation was a deal following that would shed some salary. The Cespedes adjustment was a surprise but it makes sense. I also think is suggests that it is likely he’ll play in 2020.
I do think Brodie has some flexibility at this point. As it gets closer to camp, it becomes more of a buyers market. Can he pull off a late deal for a big name? I’m sure he’d love to, but so would the Dodgers and Braves, and they have more to offer. At a minimum he needs upgrades in the pen and backup catcher, as most would see Wheeler>Porcello+Macha.
If rumors are true then Cespedes’ salary for 2020 is a base of 10 million plus incentives.That would bring the 25 man payroll down to 169 and the 40 man roster 183 million (which includes arb hearings as per Cot’s). So T.J. not as much wriggle room as you propose if you add 14 million for player benefits. Would love to see Cano dumped with a Davis or Smith trade. I know that’s wishful thinking. New ownership is not in place yet. As we all look forward to the sun coming down on the current regime and we can turn the page
Knowing that they didn’t pay Cespedes last season makes the idea of trading Vargas for nothing even worse. Vargas blew up after the deal but he’d been really good before then. Mets should have gotten something besides a little salary relief for him.
Seems like multiple angles are happening:
-Who’s going to offer Betances $10MM? Will he give in to take less?
-Where is Donaldson going? Will a team that misses out on him be interested in Lowrie?
-Mark DeRosa on MLBN called the Marisnick trade “a steal” for the Mets. With all the outfielders, can BVW trade Lowrie and Smith to open up some room on the infield for Davis?
-It would be great to improve the backup catcher, but I just don’t see it in the budget. So, with Austin Barnes possibly being lapped in Los Angeles by the Fresh Prince and Keibert Ruiz, is there something they need so they can give us something we need?
-Would y’all do a Peter Alonso for Francisco Lindor trade? I would.
Lowrie can’t be traded until someone sees him run and play. He will have much more value during and after Spring, If he plays. He may have a place with the Mets.
Freeing Salary by trading young talent is not a Now or Big Market Move. This is not the same as the Mets trade for Cano…: the Mets actually placed Player Value on Cano—- nobody identifies a value to an on hires Lowrie
Spend money…. keep trade powder dry… retain talent until you can trade talent for talent.
As Mr. Owl says, “the world may never know.” Hopefully the organization becomes more transparent with the ownership change.
Generally speaking, I avoid video at all costs unless it’s about a draft pick. But I don’t know if I’ve ever ran away from a video post as quickly as I did from this one on MetsBlog:
Watch: Steve Gelbs’ Greatest Mets Hits of 2019