When thinking about the 2020 New York Mets, players like Jacob deGrom, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil come to mind the fastest. A man that has quickly reinserted himself back into the minds of Mets fans is Yoenis Cespedes, who recently restructured his contract. After playing only 119 of his possible 486 games with the Mets, Cespedes is now set to make in the ball park of $10 million for the 2020 season. This is given that he is able to play, which, as anyone could see above, is a struggle for Cespedes. Whether it be calcification of the heels or a broken ankle suffered on a ranch, Cespedes has spent more time in a seat than in a corner outfield slot.
According to Eduardo Perez, he not only expects Cespedes to play, but to also hit 40 home runs. Now, for a moment we can all sit and dream of what it would be like to add a 40-home run Cespedes to a lineup that had Alonso, who led the league in home runs with 53, as well as Michael Conforto with 33. Yes, it is fun to dream. Coming back to reality however, and there are a couple of factors that need to be taken into consideration before throwing Cespedes right back into the fold. The team is significantly different than when Cespedes last played at least 100 games for the team in 2016. So different that the entire starting infield has changed, and there are a lot of new faces that have become more important to the roster, both long and short term than he has.
Namely, there are players on the roster that can fill spots that Cespedes can play at. Since his limited mobility has more than likely gone down more than what it already was, Cespedes is really only capable of manning a corner outfield position. There’s already a large logjam in the outfield, since the only true center fielder currently on the roster, Jake Marisnick, is not likely to start. Conforto solidified himself as the right fielder on the team, and proved himself much more suitable in that spot than in center. This likely places Brandon Nimmo in center, who absolutely has the hustle for the position, but not necessarily the supporting statistics. This leaves one spot in left field for three potential players: Cespedes, McNeil, and J.D. Davis.
The obvious outlier in this group of Cespedes, since he is limited to a corner spot in the outfield. Being that he would have to take that spot in left field, that will leave Davis on the bench for the Mets. McNeil is too valuable of a bat to leave off of the field, but it is a shame that a player like Davis, who is starting to come into his own, will be left to a reserve role. At some point the question must be asked, who is more valuable to start in the left field, Davis or Cespedes?
At this point, the value of what each player will bring to the season is just pure speculation. If the Mets are looking long term, it might be wise to keep Davis starting in left field and find a way to get Cespedes some game action. If the Mets do believe that Cespedes can play a full season, and that he still has the power that he claims to have, it might be wise to consider a trade that involves Davis. As of right now, the Mets have remained steadily quiet in the arms race that has taken place in the NL East. The Mets have been “linked” to several big names so far this offseason, including Josh Hader, Francisco Lindor, and most recently, Nolan Arenado. A package for one of these players would likely have to include Davis, as well as a crop of prospects.
The fact of the matter is that the Mets have been dealt a huge elephant in the room when it comes to the Cespedes situation. No matter how injury-prone he is, there is always that small sliver of hope that he can return to the same form as when he slugged the Mets into the World Series. The idea of having Cespedes, Alonso, and Conforto slugging it in the middle of the lineup is undoubtedly tantalizing. Is it truly worth keeping Davis on the bench however? Carlos Beltran will have a lot of interesting decisions to make this coming season, and Cespedes sparks a million questions just by walking into the clubhouse. Here’s to hoping he can be healthy in 2020, and make the decision hard for Beltran.
Take Aways: Michael Conforto is the only position player still on the Mets from the 2016 season.
Cespedes and the Mets reached a deal to restructure his contract so he is making significantly less in 2020.
Cespedes and Davis will be the prime left field candidates in 2020.
One scenario I have not heard discussed-Cespedes starts the season in Queens, stays healthy and produces, but Mets get off to bad start. Mid season trade chip.
There’s two scenarios that come to mind. The best is the four outfielders rotate around the grass allowing ample playing time for all. Injuries happen so a 4th person fills in.
The negative would be Cespedes playing poorly, being benched and then sulking around the clubhouse dragging down the whole ship.
I certainly like the first scenario. I’m turning on the hot stove as we speak.
Cespedes should get every opportunity to show in Spring Training that he’s healthy and he can still play at a level somewhat like he used to. Maybe he can, maybe he can’t.
But if he can, I’d much, much rather see him in LF than Davis.
Offensively, Cespedes put up these numbers with the Mets:
15 – .306 BABIP, 156 wRC+
16 – .298 BABIP, 136 wRC+
17 – .316 BABIP, 132 wRC+
Davis needed a .355 BABIP to put up a 136 wRC+
Defensively, in LF Cespedes has put up a +10 DRS in 1,631.2 innings for the Mets. Davis put up a (-11) DRS in 585.1 innings.
Absolutely, Davis was one of the feel-good stories for the Mets last year. But he needed a super high BABIP to do as well as he did. What happens when the hit gods don’t smile on him next year? Maybe he improves defensively, but is it realistic to expect him to improve from “dreadful” to “average” in the field? Seems optimistic to me.
The odds of Cespedes being healthy and back to his 2015-16 level seem small. But even if that’s what we have, the odds of him playing in 150 games seem tiny, too. A healthy Cespedes allows Davis to get the lion’s share of starts when one of the starting outfielders gets a day off. Marisnick becomes the Defensive Replacement/PR/ PH against lefties he was meant to be.
It may be nothing but a pipe dream to think Cespedes is healthy. But a healthy Cespedes is a good thing and what we should be rooting for.
I know you started, love and write for this blog, but you should be writing for ESPN or mlb.com. They sorely could use someone with your insight and way 9f explaining things.
I, on the other hand, rely on the eye test and am very fickle, depending what day it is.
I reacted to this headline and said, heck, dump Cespedes now. But, after reading your comment, I changed my mind.
Thanks Brian
Thank you, Mike, you’re very kind!
Brian, I totally agree with Mike W. You are in a class with the likes of Neyer and Schoenfield, which I say as a person who rarely praises anyone other than himself. Plus, I listened to one of your podcasts, and you have a pretty good radio voice as well
What is this fantasy world where we don’t acknowledge the need for lots of good pitchers and players?….. and what exactly would be the “shame” of JD Davis being a very productive bench piece—maybe on a Championship team???? I love JD, but he cannot “Glove” a position on a Championship team as a fulltime player…yet.
I wouldn’t plan on Ces…or Lowrie….. if they do arrive healthy and rady to play, they are Giagantic pieces…unexpected pieces. They’re not even in my mix to measure this team going into Spring Training, but they are Awesome Lottery Tickets!!!!
I agree with you.
86 Mets had Strawberry, Dykstra, Mookie, Kevin Mitchell and Danny Heep and even George Foster for a half season.
All it takes is one injury.
Sometime in mid-March, BVW goes to Robinson Cano and says: “ Robbie, want to stay at home at the Dominican for the first four months? Like Jed did last year? If we make the playoffs you can be fresh and strong.” It’s a nice offer that’s a win-win. Robbie gets a chance to enjoy the tropical beaches of the Dominican Republic and the Mets put McNeil at second, Davis at third, La Potencia in left field partially rotating four outfielders to keep everyone fresh, while opening up a little playing time for Dom Smith. Whadaya think? Only the insurance companies get screwed, but they’ve been screwing us for years!
I am in agreement with Brian and ERaff here on two min points. First, logjams are not a bad thing, and on this particular Met team may be a very good thing. A health Lowrie and Davis on the bench is good stuff. Second, I think it is very sound to consider Cespedes a luxury and not counting on him as a key piece. But, none of us know what he’ll be. I get the feeling that this odds of him returning as a production player are being discounted too much. This guy was/is an elite athlete. He was hampered for years by calcified ankles, yet still put up good numbers when playing at less than 100%. Yes, he is older, but the ankles and the rest of his body have had significant time to heal. A 34/35 year old player is not his 28 year old self, but a healed 34/35 player that is a motivated elite athlete should not be written off. If he plays 60% of the games in LF and some DH, the MEts will be a very different team. That may be more unlikely than likely, but I wouldn’t call it far fetched. I’ll take a $10 million gamble on that. Go add to the pen and upgrade backup C.
Cespedes
1. I would not trade him – his lowered salary is more palatable and he is in a walk year (he plays better in walk years)
2. He is not going to play everyday. He had surgeries on both heels – who know how his defense will be affected. I say Cepedes and JD play 3 games each a week
What the Mets should do
I think Mets need a defensive back up catcher and a lockdown reliever and maybe backup SS (inglesias) – but not as important
Sign – Russel Martin, Betances
I’d also go with a 6-man rotation so each starter can go an extra inning and use pen less
Lineup
1. Nimmo – CF
2. Alosno – 1b
3. McNeil – 3b
4. Cespedes / JD Davis – LF
5. Conforto – RF
6. Rosario – SS
7. Cano / Lowrie – 2b
8. Ramos / Martrin – C
9. Pitcher
Late in games – put Marsenik in CF and Nimmo in LF
Bench – JD Davis (LF / 3b / 1b), D. Smith (1b / LF / left pH), Lowrie 2b / 3b / SS) , Martin (C), Marsenik – OF
Starters – deGrom, Thor, Matz, Stroman, Porcello, Wacha
Pen – Diaz, Lugo, Betances, Familia, Wilson, Gsellman, Brach
You want the team to give some of deGrom’s starts to Wacha and Porcello?
Lots of insightful musings from all the above contributors, and some of them echo my thoughts. Hoping that Carlos Beltran and the Mets FO really use the upcoming spring training to sort some of the questions. There’s just a number of scenarios at present for us to contemplate.
I personally think that Cespedes will be given a chance to showcase what he (still) have in the tank, and I see him as traded to the AL as a DH and part time OF if he still has some mobility. However; if Davis has a poor spring and his stock goes down, I can see the Mets holding on to Cespedes and trading Davis (and Lowrie), for BP help.
Sorry dan; I can’t see a six man rotation as being feasible. Again, I think ST will be extremely important for the Mets to sort out who stays in the rotation, who goes to the bullpen, or even who may be traded.
I would rather the Mets release Cano or give him up to someone else and eat the bulk of his contract; put McNeil at 2B, and trade for Arenado. Give the Rockies a pitcher, Davis, Lowrie, Cespedas, Cano, Smith; or any combination + eat $$$$ then we’ll know if the Mets are serious about 2020 or not.
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