One thing the Mets will have to think about in the offseason is if they need to bring in a righty bat. Their top five hitters are all lefties and there’s quite a dip in production from the fifth LHB to the first RHB. Here are their wRC+ numbers:
163 – Dominic Smith
162 – Michael Conforto
152 – Brandon Nimmo
148 – Robinson Cano
143 – Jeff McNeil
118 – J.D. Davis
99 – Pete Alonso
88 – Wilson Ramos
It’s reasonable to assume that Alonso will be better moving forward but will that be enough?
It does seem like the Mets have struggled against LHP as long as I can remember. Question #1 is whether there will be a DH. I am no fan of the DH, but hopefully that will be determined before teams start the roster build for 2020.
Alonso has been really bad this season, but he has shown too much to just give up on. That said, he is no given to return to 2019 form, and Dom has shown too much not to keep in the mix. Ramos has been extremely disappointing as well, and we all know CF can use a bit more RH presence, but those are rare commodities. Realmuto would fit really nice but he will be overpaid no matter where he winds up. If money is no option…
Realmuto and a trade for Arenado should solve that problem.
Arenado is fading as a hitter and look at that contract easy pass
Aside from those 3 righties, we also have Cespedes who opted out and Marisnick who can’t stay off the IL. It’s a lopsided lineup for sure. Some other interesting splits to note aside from lefty/righty. I dig into this in my post later this week.
As for the lefties, the Dodgers traded for Betts to help that, the Mets can too. You keep your best players and wait for when an opportunity comes up to address the imbalance. Realmuto is a perfect step in that direction.
I’d like to talk about the bullpen. Is there one guy out there that you say can be good next year, for sure? It seems like quite a bit of work to replace the entire pen, but it may be needed. If you keep Familia because he’s signed and Shreve and Diaz because there’s another year of control, do you bring any others back? I really don’t want to. Maybe Gsellman and Matz as tryouts in spring training, but Hughes, Brach, Wilson, Betances, etc, I say goodbye to. That’s alot of pitching they need to find this winter. Expect Stroman back on a QO.
Interesting point. Your top five hitters being lefty is a problem. I think Alonso will bounce back, probably not 53 home runs but if he could hit 38 home runs and drive in 95-100, with a .255 average, would you take him ? I would, especially with a DH.
I am always a believer of sell high. If the right deals come along, I think they could float McNeill, Davis, Nimmo and Dom. For that matter, Rosario, Gimenez or Mauricio. How about getting Lindor in a package if he signs an extension. How about getting a right handed power hitting third baseman. Tampa is always wheeling and dealing. Maybe we could pry loose Glasnow or Snell.
But, we have to go back to catching, center field, starters and the bullpen. Stroman and Bauer are the top two pitchers. Lets see what Syndergaard comes back with next year. Maybe extend him. Realmuto would be ideal, but at age 30, he will probably decline like Carter did. He will be overpaid. But he is the best of the lot.
I just would like to see the team look a lot different next year with shrewd trades and free agent signings. I’d like to see it a lot more balanced and have more focus on defense.
Mike, great job comparing Realmuto to Carter. Since they won the World Series, my mind was blind to Carter’s decline until I just looked. He did give three years of decent production, but certainly less power. Still, the fit is perfect and if you can get him at a higher rate for just three years, it may be worth it with a overall savings in the long run.
Where I disagree with you is the Alonso numbers. From a DH, those numbers aren’t good enough for me. If a guy can’t play defense, in order to justify his spot I’d like to see David Ortiz numbers: .300+, 30+ HRs, etc. I know those are HOF numbers, but unless I have that kind of player I’d rather leave the spot open to give players rest. Now, I believe Alonso is a student enough to get closer to that level than he is now – and I love hearing how he wants to win every at bat from the pitcher – but if the Mets believe that his numbers going forward will be what you’re stating, I’d consider moving him for a center fielder. Maybe a good young prospect centerfielder and a couple of pitching prospects that a careless GM would give away…
The RHB aren’t producing to their career standards and they aren’t the best defensive option at their position.
Ramos at catcher is a offense catcher that isn’t producing offense and is a poor defender. His $10M shouldn’t be renewed. FA RHB James McCann (5 DRS) would be an upgrade.
Davis with his -7 DRS could be replaced by McNeil’s 0 DRS at 3B. Then Nimmo goes LF (7 DRS) and FA RHB George Springer with his 130 OPS+ and 5 DRS would be in CF.
Alsono isn’t a better defensive 1B than Smith and Smith is a very good offensive player. Hopefully the DH will be permanently adopted.
These moves would improve the RHB and shore up the defense.
I’d be fine with bringing back the same group of position players, except for catcher. If we could replace Ramos with a defensive minded catcher whose bat is a step up from Chirinos we can live with that. I know there are a lot of people here who think Nimmo’s not a CF and worse, maybe not a starting OF. I don’t agree and can live with Nimmo’s defense in CF in exchange for what he does at the plate.
The off-season focus needs to be on the rotation first and bullpen second. Right now we have deGrom as the only sure thing. Lugo looks good and I want him to start but he’s only had a handful of starts in the past few years. Peterson looks ok but Ali’s has a small sample size. Add Bauer and Stroman and I’ll feel a lot better.
Fix the pitching because I think the offense is fine.