Steve Cohen is a breath of fresh air. He also has a lot of money. Since officially becoming the Mets new owner, Cohen has made statements about how he’s “doing this for the fans”, “makes my money elsewhere” and “we’ll spend like a big market team”. It’s refreshing after years and years of the Wilpon Family’s at best frugal, at worst unbearably cheap treatment of a team in the largest sports market in the world. For the Wilpons, the Mets were not a team. The Mets were a significant part of their investment portfolio, one that needed to be protected for the day that the family could sell it for top dollar and slink back with the profits to their Sterling Equities offices in Great Neck.
Replacing the Wilpons thrifty ways with Cohen’s multi-billion dollar bank account has made Mets fans into giddy children again, pulling out our baseball cards, looking at the stats on the back and putting them all on our team. We’re getting J.T. Realmuto, Brad Hand, Trevor Bauer, George Springer, Marcel Ozuna and trading for Francisco Lindor. It’s in the bank!
Look, it’s great to be excited and Mets fans deserve it. Except for a short time in the mid-eighties and that one magical season in 1969, the Mets have always been the second team in town and part of that has been about ownership. The Wilpons weren’t the first cheap owners in Mets history. M. Donald Grant, who was named chairman of the team after The Mets first owner Joan Payson’s death, didn’t want to pay Tom Seaver, leading to one of the worst trades in Mets history. He also actively opposed free agency and refused to engage in acquiring players that way, all while George Steinbrenner and the Yankees created a super team in the late 1970’s in the Bronx. This team’s inability to maintain long term viability created an environment in which a man like Cohen, who is doing this as a fan, has created a level of excitement in this team that has so rarely happened in it’s nearly 60 year history.
Yet let’s also be realistic. This is still about building a team and Cohen is a smart businessman. He might be doing this because he loves the Mets and has been a fan since the team’s inception, but if we think he’s going to spend money without regard for the resulting product, we’re letting our exuberance get the best of us.
Currently the Mets are pursuing James McCann instead of Realmuto. That’s an example of a smart decision. McCann was a backup catcher early in his career and doesn’t have Realmuto’s injury history. With less injuries and less mileage on his body, McCann, who might cost half as much as Realmuto, makes a lot more sense, from an on the field, team building and financial perspective.
On the other side of that coin is Hand. Hand is a terrific left handed reliever. The Mets need a lefty in the bullpen, but this really isn’t a viable plan. The Mets just signed Trevor May, a flame throwing righty who seems to slot perfectly into the 7th or 8th inning and could potentially put together an intimidating back end of the bullpen alongside closer Edwin Diaz and Seth Lugo. Hand is not coming to the Mets to be the eighth inning guy that gives the glory to Diaz in the 9th and Cohen’s money isn’t going to change that. Additionally, just how much money are we expecting the Mets to spend in the bullpen, a place where dollars notoriously do not always generate productivity. Jeurys Familia anyone? With May on board, the Mets really just need to resign someone like Justin Wilson, who can probably be had for something akin to the 5 million a year he’s made with the club the last two years. Such a move would again be both smart short term and long term, while allowing the Mets to maintain liquidity.
This concept also feeds into the idea of Springer and Bauer. Springer is probably going to make around 27 million a year. Bauer could make 30 million a year. The luxury tax threshold this year is 210 million and Cohen has never committed to spending money in a way that would incur penalties. That means the Mets have roughly 84 million dollars left to spend, after May’s contract and taking into account the suspension of Robinson Cano. If you assume a catcher like McCann is going to make around 10 to 12 million a year, that leaves around 70 million to spend before crossing the threshold and paying luxury tax penalties. That seems to point to the fact that the Mets should probably only sign one of these players. Remember, Noah Syndergaard is going to be a free agent next year. So is Michael Conforto. Conforto deserves a significant extension and if Syndergaard returns to form after his return from Tommy John surgery, he’ll need one too. Let’s not forget that Cano will come back, and be owed 20 million in 2022 and 2023. Committing 57 million annually to Springer and Bauer, both over 30, could preclude the Mets from extending two key, homegrown, much younger stars.
Also, the Mets need more than just one starting pitcher since they can’t rely on Steven Matz and David Peterson, despite plenty of promise, has only thrown 49.2 innings in the major leagues. How would Mets fans feel if they committed less dollars and years to Jackie Bradley Jr., a plus fielder in center who is going to cost half of what Springer does and would allow Brandon Nimmo to move to leftfield, his best defensive position. Or how about Ozuna, a plus defender in leftfield that would help make up for Nimmo’s lack of range in centerfield. Either would allow the Mets to sign Bauer and a bounce back starting pitching candidate like Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, or Anthony DeScaflani on a shorter term deal. All together, that kind of combination makes more sense for the future of the roster, leaving money available to sign the Mets own players and manage the return of Cano’s contract.
The ultimate frenzied fan response involves a trade with the Indians for Lindor. Lindor is a generational talent, but there are a lot of factors that make this move extremely unlikely. Money is a big part. If you trade for Lindor, you have to extend Lindor. That’s going to be a 30 million a year deal. He’s worth the money, but it means gutting an already weak farm system and limiting moves at other positions. The thing is, the Mets have two major league shortstops right now in Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, as well as top prospect Ronny Mauricio, who is probably two years away. Lindor is just a luxury. He’s a terrific one, but he’s not one the Mets need.
Look Mets fans should be excited, but we still need to be realistic in our elation. As much as we all want this to be the old school strat-o-matic board game, where we could make whatever super team we wanted, Cohen’s money isn’t going to create that. Used wisely and with expediency, the Mets could use that money to create a team that could win a division and march to the World Series. It’s something that is very real and exciting, even if a super team is not.
I disagree that going after McCann over Realmuto is “the smart decision”. In fact, it’s a Wilponian decision to. Have the second best free agent rather than the best and not like Cohen’s character at all. Realmuto is the better player, plain and simple. However, Alderson and Boras have funded in the past and yes, Realmuto will want alot more money than McCann, but why? Maybe because Realmuto is better in every category? And Realmuto is not injury prone, his hip flexor from last season isn’t an injury that should keep him out.
If Alderson feels that he needs to spread the money around, then fine. But, Realmuto gives you Springer’s number from behind the plate. What’s worth more?
A Realmuto contract could turn into a boat anchor. Plus, we have Alvarez developing in the minors.
McCann is a significant upgrade over Ramos. He has improved pitch framing and throws out baserunners at the same percentage as Realmuto.
We have a good hitting team, even without Realmuto or Springer. We need better defense and pitching.
Dont want Lindor. Dont want to give up any assets for him when next year there will be five all-star free agent shortstops.
Have to believe Alderson and Cohen have a smart master plan.
We will learn more after this weeks winter meetings.
I totally agree, Mike! If we sign McCann for 3 years (with perhaps a 4th option year), the contract allows Alvarez to come up at the end of the deal to replace him, with McCann mentoring and backing him up at the end. And we don’t need Lindor really.
If we sign Springer and Bauer and a #3 or #4 starting pitcher, after getting McCann, we’ve got a really good team then.
Also, Cohen and Alderson have not said that they won’t go over the luxury-tax threshold. Again, even if they go over by $20 million, that’s only a $4 million first-time penalty. That’s less than Matz will make, if he sticks!
The Wilponian move would be to sign neither Realmuto or McCann, and instead opt for a (likely) shot player like Yadier Molina.
Obviously Realmuto is the better player, but I suspect he’s not going to be worth the deal he’ll end up getting. 5 or 6 years is an awfully long contract for a catcher who turns 30 before next season, and he should easily clear 20 Million in AAV. McCann can probably be had on a 2-3 year deal and much lower AAV, yet still represents an upgrade at catcher.
What’s worth more is having Springer’s numbers at the plate, and having close to Realmuto’s numbers behind it. There isn’t a close 2nd to Springer for CF, so he should be the #1 target. Then, if Cohen is willing to shell out for another $100+ million deal, it should be with Bauer, not Realmuto.
Scott, this was a very prescient article. It was well-thought out and well written.
Moreover, besides FA contracts which will have to be offered to Syndergaard and Conforto prior to the 2022 season, first-year arbitration raises will also have to be offered to four of our best hitters: Alonso, Smith, McNeil & Davis (in addition to the $20 Mil owed to Cano for 2022-23). This will preclude Uncle Stevie to use caution in spending over the next few months in free agency (if he wants to stay under the luxury tax threshold).
Given the aforementioned, I’m still hoping for the signing of Bauer, McCann, a 2nd tier SP and 2 LH RPs. CF will have to either be a platoon between Mallex Smith & Amed Rosario or a continuation of Nimmo. Nevertheless, there can be no additional signing of a FA OFer until MLB decides whether to continue the DH in the NL for 2021.
Realmuto would be a foolish signing for anything more than 18 Mil per year (and he will be offered more).
I totally forgot about Mallex Smith! I still believe an outfield upgrade is necessary, but that’s an interesting platoon idea. Smith would be a good bench player, but they tendered Gil Heredia a contract for some reason, so Smith is going to have to out play him.
Scott,
Remember that Van Wagonen wanted Mallex Smith to be included in the Cano deal. However, Seattle’s GM (Jerry DiPoto) absolutely refused to include Smith in the deal due to Mallex’s excellent 2018 season; instead he took Van Wagonen and the Mets to the cleaners.
I realize that this might be pie-in-the-sky. But if Mallex Smith can somehow revisit anything close to his productivity of 2018, the Mets will be in great shape in CF this year.
There’s things on which reasonable people can disagree. The baseball worthiness of Mallex Smith is not one of those.
Mallex Smith is a lousy ball player who got lucky one year
Mallex Smith is a lousy ball player who got lucky one year
Mallex Smith is a lousy ball player who got lucky one year
Mallex Smith is a lousy ball player who got lucky one year
If you don’t like lousy – maybe you’d like one of these, instead: bad, sorry, unsound, abominable, atrocious, awful, crappy, deplorable, distressing, dreadful, frightful, hopeless, horrid, icky, inferior, lamentable, mediocre, negative or no-good.
In 1,654 PA in the majors, he has a .686 OPS. In his last 613 PA, he has a .612 OPS.
He’s Juan Lagares or Andres Torres or Don Hahn. Lately he’s been more like Dave Schneck or Jeff Duncan. A while ago, I dubbed him “The Herpes of the Mets360 comment community.” He’s something you don’t want which keeps coming back.
I’d rather people propose the Mets sign The Freeze rather than Herpes. Oh, that’s right – the baseball genius of BVW already signed Herpes for the Mets. A parting gift for us to remember why he was shown the door.
Jeez, Brian, why don’t you tell us how you really feel?
Actually, Mallex might make a decent pinch runner down the stretch, when rosters expand. (Although I realize they don’t expand quite as much as they used to.)
I was thinking that Hunter Renfroe (or Rusney Castillo) might make a decent signing as a 4th OF. He absolutely crushes lefties. Maybe he would make more sense if there was a DH in the NL this year, but it doesn’t seem fated to be.
BTW, you might add:
Brody was a lousy GM.
Brody was a lousy GM.
Brody was a lousy GM.
One can only wish that the front office would construct a roster a la what Scott Ferguson has postulated! I agree with royhobbes7 that this was a well constructed article. Also, the Mets do have moveable pieces to trade for a better defensive player at 3B then say Davis. Rosario also may be someone that the Mets should move as part of a package to get that 3B or help in the bullpen; or a 2nd tier SP.
Just that catching in the majors is just so thin. Its either a defensive or offensive player. So either player would be a win.
To note part of the article look at the other pitchers and players Grant let go for next to nothing. Koosman, matlock staub kingman. All for over the hill or minor leaguers. Orosco is only player you have to show for all the players he gave away.
Would we rather have Bauer or Wheeler ? Phillies are feeling the cash crunch.
While would have been fun to speculate the phillies just released statement it was a false report by olney.
You were doing great until we got to the Luxury Tax and your take on value. The LT at $225 million is like 25% of the $15 million overage. Not a disqualifier to Cohen.
Number 2, Cohen is an art collector and he understands you get what you pay for. McCann is less expensive but brings you the defense you need. Offense at catcher is a double edged sword, the guy only plays 120 games so you dont want to have to rely on offense at that position, which is what you are paying more for with JT. You are right about McCann being a smart move, but its because the Mets only need quality defense at catcher, any offense is a bonus. Dont play that game with pitchers, quality is everything and that’s the place to spend big.
The Mets are in a tremendous position, having both money as well as some player assets to fill needs. That is exciting. It is fun to play GM and speculate, but my hope is that they have a cohesive plan that will be flexible enough as markets change. McCann could be a good ida vs Realmuto, but Realmuto is a far better player, what happens if his market isn’t as expected? Ditto with Lindor. There’s no way I’d trade a bunch of prospects for him when he could be signed in 2022, but what if the Indians get stuck? A Lindor for Rosario and say Baty or for Giminez and Davis is much different. And Hand to the pen is not a wild fantasy. He’ll likely go where he makes the most money and can win, and who says Diaz is the carved-in-stone closer? I hope the Mets identify their must have(s) and win those aggresively. Then I expect that they deepen the roster late with more spending flexibility than others. Exactly who the individual players are at this point is less important as there are many combinations that can propel them into serious contention.
TJ, while reading your comment about Realmuto’s offense, a thought occurred to me: If you sacrifice the offense this year for about $7-8MM per year for four years, how much will you have to then pay Conforto next year? Nimmo the year after that? I believe in getting the better player if you can, but McCann is still a good player, just not as good.
I read your comments about Lindor and the Indians getting stuck with interest. They already are stuck. The market is already saturated with decent (yes, cheaper) shortstops – Semien, Simmons, Gregorius, perhaps Kim Ha-Seong and even Freddy Galvis. Next year’s FA list of Story, Seager, Correa is perhaps the strongest ever from that position.
With that said, the market is really not there. An look at the teams that need to fill the position:
Angels: Lost Simmons, just traded for Iglesias
A’s: Lost Semien. Will not dive into the top $$ for a replacement.
Phillies: They are as vocal as anyone about losing dollars last year.
Cincinnati: Possible, but they seem to be second tier players rather than top shelf
There are really only four teams that could pay for a shortstop, and none of them have a pressing need.
Mets: Have a good one in Gimenez, and other pressing needs first.
Yankees: Have a good one in Torres
Blue Jays: Have a good one in Bichette, have other needs as well
Dodgers: Have Seager at this point, although Turner is (for the moment) gone at third base.
The others either have a good shortstop (Nats, Red Sox, Rays, etc) or will never pay for one (Tigers, Rangers, Marlins, Mariners, etc).
Lindor would upgrade almost any of these teams instantly, but my point is that nobody has a priority to get him. The Indians are stuck on this one. I don’t think they are going to get any top 10 prospects. As a baseline, I see the best they are going to do is something like Rosario/Davis/Szapucki, or something along those lines. The pot may be sweetened if they agree to part with one of their young pitching studs – Plesac, MacKenzie, or Civale. A package deal might be their only way to get much back.
Thanks for mentioning Kim. He’s near the top of my wishlist, but no one else seems that excited about him. Just by a glance at the available stats, I’d say he looks like a younger and faster Kang, which would be a bargain at the expected price.
Also, I agree with you 100% about Hand. Get the best player(s) and let it settle out in spring training or through the season.
Stop the madness….this week at the Winter Meetings, Uncle Stevie will be wrapping up three gifts for the Mets fans Christmas – Springer for CF, McCann at C, and either Bauer or Odorizzi as the last pitcher in the rotation. If he wants to put in a stocking stuffer for the BP, maybe Hand or Colome as well. Merry Cohenmas !
Edwin, the meetings are on Zoom only. No one is going anywhere except their home office.
Cohen has also said that he wants to championship in 3-5 years. Alderson has the task of delivering and also to built the minor leagues in order to sustain success. His plan is to sign free agents and not trade the young core of the player. Therefore to achieve the championship goal they have to fill their abundant holes with quality championship players. This will take money which they fortunately have.
They need one impact RHB that plays defensive well. The choices are Springer or Realmuto. McCann is the fall back for Realmuto. There is no back fall for Springer. Therefore Springer should be the primary target.
They need two starting pitchers that will fill in #3 and #4 in the rotation. Bauer would be a #2 and be expensive but more of a dominant pitcher . Pairing Bauer with a “Walker type” pitcher would be one avenue to take. The other is signing Odorizzi and Tanaka with less money. Option #2 more stable.
I am looking at my crystal eight ball. I see a Mets trade with the Reds this week of Rosario for Sonny Gray.