Mets 2021 projections: James McCann

The most interesting players are the ones where avid followers can disagree without taking obscure or purely theoretical positions. In recent years, Mets fans here have had these discussions with Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Zack Wheeler and others. If the computer models are any indication, we’ll soon have another player to add to the list in James McCann. The Mets’ new catcher made his MLB debut back in 2014. Usually, when a player has been in the majors that long, the computer forecasts are pretty similar. Not this time, though.

We have a new forecast to add to the group, as the ATC projections are now available on FanGraphs.

ATC – 455 PA, .243/.302/.409, 17 HR, 54 RBIs
Marcel – 397 PA, .249/.311/.418, 14 HR, 46 RBIs
RotoCh – 451 PA, .261/.316/.431, 17 HR, 53 RBIs
Steamer – 427 PA, .223/.285/.376, 14 HR, 49 RBIs
THE BAT – 459 PA, .238/.300/.402, 17 HR, 54 RBIs
ZiPS — 434 PA, .239/.297/.390, 14 HR, 51 RBIs

There’s 38 points separating the hi AVG from low AVG forecast, 55 points separating SLG and a 62 difference in PA. Focusing on the triple slash lines, Steamer is the most bearish, with ZiPS not too far behind. ATC and THE BAT are in the middle, with Marcel and RotoChamp being the most bullish.

Of course, McCann’s transformation the last two years is what’s driving the difference here. How much weight should we put on the last 587 PA? In that span, McCann has a 114 OPS+, which is pretty good for a catcher. Of course, the 1,658 PA that came before that paint an entirely different picture. In those, McCann managed just a 76 OPS+.

The hits have fallen in for McCann the past two years, as he posted a .339 BABIP last year and a .359 mark in 2019. But there’s more to it than just that. There’s been a slight bump in his BB% and his power production has increased substantially. McCann had a .126 ISO his first five years in the league but in the past two seasons, that number has jumped to .198, an increase of 72 points.

McCann’s done this while playing for the White Sox the past two seasons. Guaranteed Rate Field has a reputation as a hitter-friendly park but McCann has 28 XBH in his home park, compared to 27 XBH on the road, the past two years.

While some might wonder how the power will translate in a new park and a new league, perhaps the biggest issue will be how the Mets handle playing time and what, if anything, that will do to McCann’s numbers. He essentially split time behind the plate with Yasmani Grandal in 2020. But he’ll be expected to handle the lion’s share of the work for the Mets in 2021. The last two years, Wilson Ramos played in 141 out of 162 games in 2019 and 45 out of 60 in 2020. Is McCann, who played in 31 games last year, ready for that type of workload?

How he does defensively will play into the workload question. He’s improved his framing in 2020 and his overall defensive play the past two seasons. In 2019-20, he’s combined for a +9 DRS. From 2014-18, he had a (-10 DRS). It’s a lot easier to play someone who hits like 2020 Ramos if he’s adding value defensively.

At the end of the day, my beliefs are that his defense has improved, his power has improved and he’s due for regression with his BABIP. My totally biased prediction for McCann is:

475 PA, .230/.290/.420, 18 HR, 50 RBIs

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think McCann will do this year.