Mets 2021 projections: Marcus Stroman

If you just look at Marcus Stroman’s Baseball-Reference page quickly, you’ll see that his last line has 11 games and 59.2 IP, which sounds about right for our Covid-shortened 2020. Alas, that was Stroman’s line after he was traded to the Mets in 2019. Stroman began 2020 on the injured list and accrued enough service time while there to become a free agent. When he was getting ready to be activated, the Mets were due to leave for a road trip to Miami, which was a Covid hotspot. Adding it all up, Stroman opted out of the season and did not pitch last year. And it should be noted that a Mets player and coach both got Covid on that Miami trip.

One of the great unknowns will be how pitchers who only threw 60 or so innings last season will handle throwing 180 innings in 2021. And it will be even more uncertain for pitchers who opted out and didn’t throw a single pitch. Let’s see what the computer models forecast for Stroman:

ATC – 165 IP, 3.94 ERA, 139 Ks, 56 BB, 18 HR
Marcel – 78 IP, 4.04 ERA, 71 Ks, 21 BB, 9 HR
RotoCh – 177 IP, 3.92 ERA, 150 Ks, 59 BB
Steamer – 170 IP, 4.17 ERA, 137 Ks, 59 BB, 21 HR
THE BAT – 170 IP, 4.14 ERA, 138 Ks, 63 BB, 19 HR
ZiPS – 123 IP, 3.88 ERA, 104 Ks, 41 BB, 15 HR

Much like with Jacob deGrom’s forecast, we see Marcel and ZiPS with a much-lower innings forecast than the rest of them. If asked to guess which system would come in low on innings, Marcel would have been the obvious choice, as it’s the simplest model of the bunch. If nothing else, we’ve learned this year that ZiPS uses a significant weighting on the previous year’s innings output.

In addition to the lost year of 2020, an additional challenge when forecasting Stroman is what to do with his results after the trade to the Mets, specifically in the HR allowed section. Before being dealt, Stroman had a 0.72 HR/9 with the Blue Jays. However, with the Mets he posted a 1.21 HR/9. Furthermore, in his first seven games with the Mets, Stroman gave up 7 HR in 35.2 IP. But in his last four games, he surrendered just 1 HR in 24 IP.

Was it just a small sample fluke? That’s a reasonable guess. Yet it does look like his pitch mix changed after the trade. With the Mets, Stroman threw more fastballs and fewer breaking balls and the results with his fastball were significantly worse than what they were in Toronto. Was this Wilson Ramos cheating with runners on base, trying to have a chance to throw runners out? Or was this a difference in philosophy between the two organizations? Ramos is no longer around and the pitching coach now is different, too. Phil Regan held the job when Stroman was acquired and Jeremy Hefner took over in 2020.

It’s tough to make value judgments on players from afar, since so much of our opinion is shaped by what members of the media say of them. If you’re cooperative with the media, it’s much more likely that they’ll write and say nice things. For years, we heard what a great communicator Terry Collins was and it was only in the last month of his tenure that we found out this wasn’t true at all.

With that being said, it seems like Stroman cares and that he’s a hard worker. And if we’re being honest, it’s easier to make an optimistic forecast for someone who cares, rather than a Frank Francisco, who’s just as happy rehabbing and cashing checks as he is performing in games in MLB stadiums. Some wonder how much he really cares since he opted out last year. On the subject of the opt out, the New York Post had this from Stroman:

“It ended up being a collective family decision for me, something that has been weighing on me daily,” Stroman said. “I ended up sitting with my family and assessing the possibilities and realizing there’s just too many uncertainties, too many unknowns right now to go out there. It’s really putting the health for my family and myself first and foremost.”

Here’s my totally biased forecast for Stroman:

180 IP, 3.47 ERA, 160 Ks, 65 BB, 16 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you chime in now with what you think Stroman will do in 2021.