Mets 2021 projections: Taijuan Walker

After truncated seasons in 2018 and 2019, Taijuan Walker pitched a full year in 2020. Of course, 2020 itself was a shortened campaign. So, with three years where he combined for just 67.1 IP, how will the computer models forecast him for 2021? Will any of them project him to surpass 150 IP, which is essentially what he averaged for 2015-17? Let’s take a look:

ATC – 126 IP, 4.09 ERA, 119 Ks, 45 BB, 18 HR
BAT – 150 IP, 4.28 ERA, 138 KS, 54 BB, 21 HR
MtM – 132 IP, 3.82 ERA, 130 Ks, 51 BB, 19 HR
RCh – 137 IP, 4.14 ERA, 127 Ks, 50 BB
STE – 141 IP, 4.46 ERA, 136 Ks, 52 BB, 22 HR
ZiPS – 100 IP, 4.41 ERA, 86 Ks, 36 BB, 15 HR

We’re used to seeing Marcel and ZiPS being the most conservative when it comes to inning projections but Marcel is much closer to the average of the others with Walker. Steamer and ZiPS are the bears of our projection group, with essentially the only difference between the two is a much higher innings forecast from the former. None of our six systems sees any great leap forward from Walker in his second season back from TJ surgery.

By now, everyone knows the basic history of Walker. He came up as a top prospect, had three solid and unspectacular seasons in the middle of the last decade and then came down with elbow problems. But let’s take a deeper look at back when he was breaking in. The following excerpt is from prospect maven John Sickels in his 2014 book:

Walker did everything he could possibly be expected to do last year. He stayed healthy. He sharpened command of his 93-98 MPH fastball. He made further progress with his slider and changeup. He used his curveball a little more often; it still needs work, but he can give hitters a different look with it. Although his command is still a little bit inconsistent, he dominated Double-A, held his own in the difficult Triple-A Pacific Coast League, and pitched very well in three big league starts. Going down the list of things you want in a pitching prospect, Walker is athletic, has great makeup, and features the proper combination of overpowering stuff with sufficient pitchability to become number two starter, possibly number one. Grade A-

Sickels had him rated as the 10th-best pitching prospect in the majors heading into 2014, directly in front of James Paxton and Lucas Giolito and eight spots ahead of Trevor Bauer. Injuries have so far kept him from reaching the heights those other three hurlers have in MLB.

Before the TJ surgery, Walker lost time on the mound due to a shoulder impingement, a foot injury and forearm tightness. Those explain why he has yet to make 30 starts in a season. It’s difficult to imagine that this will be the year Walker breaks that streak. The good news is the Mets have him under control for two years. Perhaps 2022 will be the year it all comes together for Walker.

But we’re not interested in 2022 yet. Walker was signed to give the team quality innings this year, too. It would be great if he could approach last season’s 2.70 ERA. But much like with David Peterson, Walker’s peripherals paint a rougher picture than his ERA. Last year, he had a 4.56 FIP and a 4.82 xFIP. Prior to the TJ surgery, Walker posted better than average BABIP numbers. But last year he took it to another level, as he had a .243 mark in the category. It will be next to impossible for him to duplicate those numbers in 2021 over 20-plus starts. So, we’re looking at a giant question mark as to how many innings he can give, combined with the knowledge he’s likely to regress with his hits allowed. It’s not the greatest combination ever.

Still, my expectation is that Walker will be able to get back a little closer to the guy Sickels forecasted way back when. Another year removed from surgery, along with the comfort of a multi-year contract will hopefully mean good things for him, even if he’s still on some type of innings-reduction plan. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Walker in 2021:

154 IP, 3.64 ERA, 140 Ks, 53 BB, 20 HR

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you expect Walker to do this season.