Mets 2021 projections: J.D. Davis

The Mets don’t seem to believe in J.D. Davis as a starting third baseman and after his performance in September of 2020, it’s not too difficult to understand why. After looking good initially upon his return to 3B, he got progressively worse defensively. And in his last 28 games, Davis put up a .202/.336/.330 line in 113 PA. But should 113 PA last year trump the 453 PA he had in 2019, which produced an .895 OPS? Here’s what the computer models think:

ATC – 461 PA, .262/.341/.443, 17 HR, 54 RBIs
BAT – 390 PA, .259/.336/.433, 15 HR, 55 RBIs
MtM – 554 PA, .263/.348/.437, 20 HR, 60 RBIs
RC – 559 PA, .278/.360/.460, 21 HR, 69 RBIs
STE – 368 PA, .258/.337/.450, 17 HR, 55 RBIs
ZiPS – 533 PA, .257/.332/.432, 19 HR, 62 RBIs

There’s more agreement here than anticipated, at least for me. Five of the six forecasts have him within six points of AVG, while the HR and RBI numbers are very similar once you neutralize playing time. Here’s where we have some diversity, as we go from Steamer’s 368 PA to Marcel’s 554 PA. And the one outlier of the group, RotoChamp, has him with 559 PA. RC has Davis with an .820 OPS, while the next-highest mark is the .787 of Steamer. And even that’s not a huge difference.

So, if the models see similar production, one might ask why there’s such differences over playing time. And while that’s a function of how the different systems were created, it also works out nicely with how the public views Davis. Some might see him as worthy of 500+ PA, while others would put that mark in the 400s and some wouldn’t even go that high. However, my guess is that the public probably has wildly different takes on his expected production.

My opinion is that if the Mets installed Davis as their starter at 3B and lived with his output over 140 or so games, they’d get pretty much a league average player, even with Davis’ defensive issues. If that’s the case, that brings up two related questions: Will the Mets be happy with that production? And should they be happy with that production?

Some people operate with the belief that championship clubs have above-average players everywhere on the diamond and that’s simply not true. The Nationals in 2019 had below-average production from their starters at catcher and second base; the 2018 Red Sox didn’t make the cut at catcher, first, second or third and the 2017 Astros fell short at 1B and DH.

One of the problems with the Mets of the late 60s and early 70s was that they spent so much time and resources trying to upgrade at third base. If they had just been content to play Wayne Garrett there, they could have received league-average play and kept, among others, Amos Otis and Nolan Ryan. And while we’re not worried with Sandy Alderson about trading away top talent for old guys at an exchange of pennies on the dollar – is it worth the time and effort to plot upgrades from league-average production at below-market salary?

Sure, you always look for ways to improve your squad. But if James McCann is as good as the Mets think he is, then you’re looking at above-average production everywhere on the field besides, potentially, third base. My opinion is that instead of plotting ways to get better production at the hot corner, the Mets should be focused on improving their pen.

It’s my belief that Davis will follow a playing time path that has more in common with 2019 than 2020. Last year he was pretty much the starter from Day One. In 2019, he had to earn that daily playing time. My guess is that Davis is in some kind of time share early, but not a platoon where he gets the short end of the stick. Here’s my totally biased forecast for Davis in 2021:

480 PA, .275/.380/.425, 15 HR, 70 RBIs

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Davis will do this year.