The top 50 column is one of my favorites; but a challenging piece becomes just about impossible with the missing minor league season in 2020. No one has any idea who the layoff will affect the most, which means this list will likely be a bigger guess than usual. Anyway, about half of these entries contain the same blurb as last year’s list. But the order is a bit different than 2020, thanks to graduations and trades from that list, as well as additions from outside the organization. Here’s this year’s model:
50. Jake Mangum – Everyone seems to love him besides me. Can he hit?
49. Carlos Cortes – Others see a promising bat, maybe they’re right.
48. Quinn Brodey – L/L outfielder can do a little bit of everything but is too much of a tweener for my tastes.
47. Oscar De La Cruz – Former Cubs prospect switched to the pen in mid-2019 and as a reliever in Double-A, he posted 49 Ks and 9 BB in 37.1 IP
46. Branden Fryman – Son of former All-Star Travis Fryman, Mets drafted him out of high school in 2016 and then again out of Samford in 2019. Showed good contact skills in his pro debut last year.
45. Jace Beck – The 6’9 RHP had a strong pro debut, as he fanned 10 in 8 IP and picked up two saves.
44. Bryce Hutchinson – Oft-injured pitcher was finally healthy and did well as a reliever then moved to the rotation the last month of the season.
43. Jeremy Vasquez – Low power 1B had a solid season in the FSL but did most of his damage at home, where his OPS was 227 points higher.
42. Tommy Wilson – Fly ball pitcher kept the ball in the park in the FSL but surrendered 11 HR in 69 IP in Double-A.
41. Hayden Senger – Built like an NFL Tight End. Need to see what happens with his power once he escapes Columbia.
40. Blaine McIntosh – This seems to be the CF from the 2019 Draft on which to dream. McIntosh turned down a scholarship to Vanderbilt to sign with the Mets. The final numbers don’t look good but in his final nine games he posted 11 hits and eight walks. The defensive rep is very good and he comes with elite speed.
39. Scott Ota – A low-cost senior drafted in 2019, Ota showed power and patience in his pro debut and put himself as a guy to watch.
38. Franklin Parra – Raw lefty from the 2018 Draft limited batters to a .490 OPS in 21 IP and fanned 29 in the GULF.
37. Michel Otanez – Posted 70 Ks in 63 IP split between two short-season leagues.
36. Jefferson Escorcha – Lefty put up a 2.38 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP in 41.2 IP in the APPY as a 19 year old.
35. Yoel Romero – Saw more game time than expected, as he played in SAL and FSL before the opening of the NYP League. Had an OPS 176 points higher in road parks than his home parks last year.
34. Adonis Uceta – Bounced back nicely after injury-shortened 2018. Great in Double-A but hammered in both games in Triple-A.
33. Wagner Lagrange – Had the highest OPS (.748) of any hitter to appear in at least 50 games with Columbia in 2019. Promoted to the FSL and in 36 games put up a .776 OPS, the second-highest mark on the club among those with at least 100 PA.
32. Wilmer Reyes – Infielder put up an OPS 137 points higher than the club average for Brooklyn in 2019.
31. Andres Regnault – Posted an .865 OPS over his final 26 games in 2019, with 13 XBH in 114 PA.
30. Tony Dibrell – Pitched well in the FSL but got smoked after promotion to Double-A in 2019.
29. Yennsy Diaz – Has three MLB-quality pitches but command is a big concern.
28. Daison Acosta – Has good pitches with his fastball and slider. Remains to be seen if he can turn his change into a third reliable pitch.
27. Harol Gonzalez – A minor league free agent, Gonzalez re-signed with the Mets for 2021. The deck seems stacked against him, being an older, relatively short RHP without great velocity. But clearly the Mets think there’s something there.
26. Ryley Gilliam – Started in the FSL in 2019 and ended up in Triple-A. Has trouble at the higher levels but had a strong season in the Arizona Fall League, where he fanned 11 in 9.1 IP.
25. Gregory Guerrero – Signed the same year as Andres Gimenez and got more money. Has yet to put it all together over a full season.
24. Jordany Ventura – Dominican native is not overpowering but has strong command and pitched in DSL-GULF-APPY in 2019.
23. Franklyn Kilome – Showed some flashes in his MLB debut in 2020 but future seems to be as a long reliever, a role the Mets don’t typically embrace.
22. Hansel Moreno – Had promise this time last year with his status as an intriguing OF prospect. The trade for Lee and the lost year of development really hurts.
21. Tylor Megill – A 6’7 righty who throws hard stuff. Seems like a future reliever.
20. Joshua Cornielly – Venezuelan native had a 5.0 K/BB ratio as an 18 year old in the GULF in 2019.
19. Shervyen Newton – Perhaps the best defensive shortstop in the system, there are questions if Newton can survive his strikeouts.
18. Jaylen Palmer – In 2019 he tied for fifth in the APPY in Total Bases with 100 as an 18 year old.
17. Jose Butto – Had an eight-start stretch in the middle of 2019 with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.037 WHIP with 46 Ks in 45.1 IP.
16. Adrian Hernandez – Got off to a hot start and then suffered a season-ending leg injury early in 2019. Considered a five-tool talent, it remains to be seen how the injury will affect his speed and overall development.
15. Luis Carpio – Middle infielder dominated in his second go-round in the FSL in 2019 and more than held his own after a promotion to Double-A. Binghamton’s team OPS was .686 and Carpio posted a .709 mark as a 21 year old.
14. Sam McWilliams – Mets flexed their financial muscle by signing the late-blooming McWilliams, who took off after embracing analytics.
13. Junior Santos – Numbers don’t look good but he was a 17 year old holding his own in the APPY in 2019.
12. Alexander Ramirez – A CF with all of the tools. Needs to show he can make consistent contact.
11. Khalil Lee – A toolsy outfielder, he looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training action.
10. Robert Dominguez – A non-heralded international signing – he was almost 18 and the top ones sign when they’re 16 – he has great size and a powerful fastball.
9. Thomas Szapucki – Hopefully the last time he makes a prospect list.
8. JT Ginn – Great stuff but can he remain a starter?
7. Freddy Valdez – Heralded international signing had a strong year in the Dominican as a 17 year old and ended up with a cup of coffee in the GULF in 2019, where he went 4-10 with a double and a homer.
6. Mark Vientos – Known for his power, he displayed some patience in Grapefruit League action, which was a nice sign. Will he be able to stick at 3B?
5. Brett Baty – Just missed Keith Law’s top 100 list. That’s probably the last time we say that about him as a prospect.
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong – Didn’t look a bit out of place in major league camp, despite being in high school this time last year and with no professional ABs on his resume.
3. Francisco Alvarez – It’s at least a tiny worry that they didn’t let him catch very much, if at all, this Spring with the major league guys.
2. Ronny Mauricio – The only question seems to be where on the diamond he’ll play.
1. Matthew Allan – Spent some time last year at the alternate site. Followed Jacob deGrom around in Spring Training. Three plus pitches. It almost seems like people are scared to put too much faith in him for some reason.
A few thoughts:
That you left Mazeika off entirely is hysterical. But it’s your list, so the Carpio love lives on. I think you do that every year to bait me…
The Mets re-sign Harol Gonzalez and they only give the guy one start in which he did well? Cruel.
You didn’t notice that Carlos Cortes won he batting title in the Australian League this passed off season? It’s considered AA quality. I don’t love him either, but have to tip the hat.
Mazeika is 27 and has yet to play a game in the majors. List me all of the U.S.-born catchers this century who made their MLB debut at age 27. I’m sure there’s someone. There might even be four or five. But there’s not many and not any who were a threat to make the All-Star game. Mazeika probably has an excellent shot of getting 5 PA in the majors. I wouldn’t wager with your money on his chance to get 100 PA.
Actually I did notice about Cortes, which is why he made this year’s list after not making the 2020 edition.
Off the top of my head I know Kyle Higashioka with the Yankees was 27 when he debuted, but was 30 last year when he finally stuck full time in the majors as Gary Sanchez’s backup. Which I think proves your point — best case scenario is a replacement-level catcher.
I hope the Mets hold off on the Lindor extension so they can leave room for the Mauricio-Baty infield to develop. If Lindor sags offensively, there are plenty of options in the next FA class… almost too many to commit to an iffy, expensive future with Lindor.
Conforto seems a different story. If he continues to improve offensively (just entering his prime), he can be a mainstay in an organization not that deep in OF talent. Of course, Scott Boras can effectively block all that.
I’m a bit concerned for McNeil, who maybe hasn’t hit a ball hard this spring. He was the same for the first month last season, then came around. As much as I love the guy, his sample size is still on the short side… hoping he will find the groove sooner than later… division dominance can rest on April-May results, and McNeil is in an important position in the lineup.
I’m afraid that RISP performance is still a concern with this team.
Good offense can hide some defensive sins, but lack of RISP rips the heart from a team and clearly loses games that were winnable.
You have two Ex Mets on this list. Hansel Moreno Adonis Uceta both who were free agents that the Mets did not resign.
Thanks for the correction.
B-R does not list either with a team. They’re older prospects – I wonder if they’ve just decided to move on with their lives. Uceta at Double-A in ’19 had a 1.44 ERA in 56.1 innings with a strikeout per inning and a 3.0 K/BB ratio. I’m shocked that there’s not interest somewhere, even if not the Mets.
I hope it’s all right to ask a question here. I’m wondering if there is any list of USA amateur prospects who will be difficult to sign away from a college program or who have said they don’t want to be drafted. If not, could you provide such a list? My interest is because of the way the Mets were able to sign that sort of player in the last two classes.
The best bet to find what you’re looking for would be Baseball America, which is a subscription site. They’ll put out an article on the top XX High School players and that’s when you’d want to see if they offer a free-trial period.
FG has a top 100 list but it includes both HS and college players. There’s a column for “College Commit” but it currently is completely blank.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2021-mlb-draft/summary?sort=-1,1&type=0&team=&pg=0
Where would Kelenic, Dunn, and SWR slot in on this list? 1, 6, and 10?
Kelenic would be first
Dunn has exceeded rookie eligibility and wouldn’t qualify for the list
SWR – hmm, 10 is about right. Could make a case for him being a slot or two higher.
Thanks for another great list. I was afraid you were not going to do this.
As you have said in the past, a top 50 list is hard. No minor league season last hurt a lot of these players.
Glad someone else pointed out about Moreno and Uceta. That would have been my comment. I put Wilmer Reyes higher than Moreno. I also have Mangum ahead of Fryman as Fryman did not play much in 2019 due to injury. Other notables I like Jose Peroza, in 49 2019 games he drove in 42 runs, 10 HR, 10 doubles, with a .263 BA, .330 OBP, .514 SLG. 3B, an RBI machine (same age as Baty with more years of pro experience); Jared Biddy – Relief Pitcher, had a tremendous 2019 professional year. In 18 games and 31.1 innings between Columbia, Kingsport, and Brooklyn, Jared went 4-0 with 3 BBs, 35K’s and a 0.86 ERA; and Ranfy Adon – was named fastest man in the organization (as you once said “Chicks love the long ball but dudes love speed”). He may no longer be the fastest with PCA and K-Lee aboard but Ranfy had a big homerun and the walk-off double to give the Cyclones a 4-3 win in the deciding game against Hudson Valley in the first playoff round.
Tylor Megill as a future reliever ? A bit off on that one ! Lol…
Happy to be wrong when a player exceeds expectations. That being said, the “future” could be as soon as September
Brian, where are your 2022 prospects?
Relax, have a Cream Soda.