A lot of people were down on David Peterson coming into the 2020 season. He was a former first-round draft pick who seemed more like a bust than a future rotation stalwart. In 2019 at Double-A, Peterson was 3-6 with a 4.19 ERA. At age 23, it’s not like he was young for the level, either. But Peterson’s peripherals that season at Binghamton painted a different picture. An elevated BABIP and a depressed LOB% led him to having an ERA a full run higher than his FIP.
Peterson got to see how the other half lived in 2020. In his debut season in the majors, Peterson notched an ERA a little over a run better than his FIP. Whereas in 2019, the hits fell in for opposing batters, last year hitters had just a .233 BABIP against Peterson. And while in the minors in 2019 he recorded a 66.3 LOB%, last year it was 76.8 in the majors. Fewer hitters reached base than expected and those that did make it scored at a much lower percentage. That’s living right.
There are pitchers who can consistently beat their FIP. But essentially no one posts a .233 BABIP or thereabouts on a consistent basis. You can be impressed with Peterson’s poise on the mound, or his arsenal or anything else about him. But the odds are heavily stacked against him repeating the type of season he enjoyed in 2020.
Let’s look at all of the pitchers since 1980 who in their debut season had at least five starts, 40 IP and an ERA of 3.75 or less and a FIP of 4.40 or greater. It’s not a big group, as Peterson was one of just 21 pitchers to fit the criteria. Here’s the complete list:
| Rank | Player | GS | IP | FIP | ERA | Year | Age | K% | BB% | ERA+ | BABIP | HR | OPS | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Britt Reames | 7 | 40.2 | 4.66 | 2.88 | 2000 | 26 | 18.20% | 13.50% | 164 | 0.234 | 4 | 0.683 | 77 |
| 2 | Justin Masterson | 9 | 88.1 | 4.69 | 3.16 | 2008 | 23 | 18.60% | 11.00% | 147 | 0.244 | 10 | 0.674 | 74 |
| 3 | Eric Nolte | 12 | 67.1 | 4.42 | 3.21 | 1987 | 23 | 15.00% | 12.30% | 124 | 0.251 | 6 | 0.664 | 85 |
| 4 | Victor Santos | 7 | 76.1 | 5.26 | 3.3 | 2001 | 24 | 15.50% | 14.60% | 130 | 0.24 | 9 | 0.728 | 98 |
| 5 | John Farrell | 9 | 69 | 4.55 | 3.39 | 1987 | 24 | 9.40% | 7.40% | 134 | 0.263 | 7 | 0.725 | 90 |
| 6 | Jaime Barria | 26 | 129.1 | 4.58 | 3.41 | 2018 | 21 | 18.30% | 8.80% | 123 | 0.272 | 17 | 0.719 | 98 |
| 7 | David Peterson | 9 | 49.2 | 4.52 | 3.44 | 2020 | 24 | 19.50% | 11.70% | 123 | 0.233 | 5 | 0.644 | 79 |
| 8 | Allan Ramirez | 10 | 57 | 5 | 3.47 | 1983 | 26 | 8.60% | 12.90% | 115 | 0.227 | 6 | 0.701 | 94 |
| 9 | Cristian Javier | 10 | 54.1 | 4.94 | 3.48 | 2020 | 23 | 25.20% | 8.40% | 129 | 0.194 | 11 | 0.652 | 74 |
| 10 | Oliver Perez | 15 | 90 | 4.52 | 3.5 | 2002 | 20 | 24.30% | 12.40% | 107 | 0.261 | 13 | 0.702 | 97 |
| 11 | Albert Williams | 9 | 77 | 4.53 | 3.51 | 1980 | 26 | 10.90% | 9.40% | 125 | 0.261 | 9 | 0.704 | 87 |
| 12 | Jose Paniagua | 11 | 51 | 5.43 | 3.53 | 1996 | 22 | 12.10% | 10.30% | 123 | 0.296 | 7 | 0.806 | 116 |
| 13 | Alex Young | 15 | 83.1 | 4.81 | 3.56 | 2019 | 25 | 20.30% | 7.70% | 126 | 0.252 | 14 | 0.71 | 86 |
| 14 | Jeremy Sowers | 14 | 88.1 | 4.57 | 3.57 | 2006 | 23 | 9.70% | 5.60% | 126 | 0.257 | 10 | 0.69 | 78 |
| 15 | Chuck Crim | 5 | 130 | 4.48 | 3.67 | 1987 | 25 | 10.20% | 7.10% | 125 | 0.274 | 15 | 0.712 | 85 |
| 16 | Carlos Villanueva | 6 | 53.2 | 4.47 | 3.69 | 2006 | 22 | 18.10% | 5.10% | 124 | 0.23 | 8 | 0.693 | 79 |
| 17 | Donovan Hand | 7 | 68.1 | 5.01 | 3.69 | 2013 | 27 | 12.90% | 7.30% | 105 | 0.288 | 10 | 0.785 | 119 |
| 18 | Urbano Lugo | 10 | 83 | 4.43 | 3.69 | 1985 | 22 | 12.00% | 8.30% | 113 | 0.288 | 10 | 0.777 | 111 |
| 19 | Darryl Kile | 22 | 153.2 | 4.67 | 3.69 | 1991 | 22 | 14.50% | 12.20% | 94 | 0.27 | 16 | 0.737 | 119 |
| 20 | David Williams | 18 | 114 | 5.13 | 3.71 | 2001 | 22 | 12.10% | 9.50% | 123 | 0.246 | 15 | 0.757 | 97 |
| 21 | Rick Ownbey | 8 | 50.1 | 4.94 | 3.75 | 1982 | 24 | 12.10% | 18.50% | 98 | 0.266 | 3 | 0.722 | 110 |
It’s not exactly filled with household names that the average fan would know. Since these are relatively recent pitchers, and if you’re reading this you’re more tuned in than the average fan, chances are you recognize a few of the names. But outside of Kile, is there anyone who made the All-Star team? How many of them would you say – wish he was on the Mets?
Of course, it’s one thing to go by name value yet it’s possible that these guys were sneakily good and flew under the radar. So, let’s go ahead and check and see how this group of pitchers performed the following season.
| Player | Year | ERA | Year | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryl Kile | 1991 | 3.69 | 1992 | 3.95 |
| Jaime Barria | 2018 | 3.41 | 2019 | 6.42 |
| Oliver Perez | 2002 | 3.5 | 2003 | 5.47 |
| Alex Young | 2019 | 3.56 | 2020 | 5.44 |
| Justin Masterson | 2008 | 3.16 | 2009 | 4.52 |
| David Williams | 2001 | 3.71 | 2002 | 4.98 |
| Chuck Crim | 1987 | 3.67 | 1988 | 2.91 |
| Cristian Javier | 2020 | 3.48 | 2021 | ? |
| Victor Santos | 2001 | 3.3 | 2002 | 10.38 |
| Eric Nolte | 1987 | 3.21 | 1988 | 6 |
| Urbano Lugo | 1985 | 3.69 | 1986 | 3.8 |
| David Peterson | 2020 | 3.44 | 2021 | ?? |
| Carlos Villanueva | 2006 | 3.69 | 2007 | 3.94 |
| Donovan Hand | 2013 | 3.69 | 2014 | 5.20* |
| Jeremy Sowers | 2006 | 3.57 | 2007 | 6.42 |
| Albert Williams | 1980 | 3.51 | 1981 | 4.08 |
| Britt Reames | 2000 | 2.88 | 2001 | 5.59 |
| John Farrell | 1987 | 3.39 | 1988 | 4.24 |
| Rick Ownbey | 1982 | 3.75 | 1983 | 4.67 |
| Jose Paniagua | 1996 | 3.53 | 1997 | 12 |
| Allan Ramirez | 1983 | 3.47 | 1987 | 4.36* |
* – Did not pitch in the majors the following season. Used minor league ERA, instead
There were 21 pitchers on our original list. Two of these made it in the 2020 season, leaving us 19 players to examine how they did in the following year. Turns out that 18 of the 19 had a worse year in ERA, with only Crim pitching better. But that comes with an asterisk. Crim barely made our first list, as he had five starts in 53 games in his debut year. The following year he was exclusively a reliever. Crim was a pretty good pitcher his first four years in the majors. Or maybe he was a lucky guy, as he beat his FIP in each of those four seasons. But, in the final four years of his career, Crim had a 4.62 FIP and a 4.85 ERA.
There were 15 pitchers out of 19 who saw their ERA go up by at least half a run and 12 of those saw their ERA go up a full run. Peterson is facing an uphill climb to post an ERA within 50 points of his 2020 3.44 mark.
Last week, before doing the research on this article, my forecast was for Peterson to have a 4.50 ERA in 2021. Now seeing how pitchers who similarly enjoyed good fortune as Peterson did in their debut season, and how they did the following year, makes me feel even better about that prediction.
Nothing presented above should be viewed as conclusive proof. The best we can do is play the odds and hope that leads us to the right answer more times than not. Maybe Peterson turns into Kile, a guy who had a very nice career, even though it was cut short. That’s certainly among the possibilities for him and it would be great for the Mets if it played out that way. But it’s not a wager any of us should rush out to make.
Fascinating, thanks.
OK, Brian, you’ve given me pause. I’ve been very high on Peterson since closely watching him pitch last season. I was impressed with so much of his game. For once, a Mets pitcher actually knew how to keep a runner close to first base. He seemed to know how to bear down with runners on base. He had good location, got squeezed by the umpire on more than one occasion, and his stuff looked decent and would certainly get better with age and coaching.
I admit to some wishful thinking. I’d like the Oregon grad to make it big, and the Mets need a farm kid to pan out. But I was happy whenever he got the ball, and I came to expect that the Mets would have a better chance than when, say, Porcello, Matz, or Wacha got the ball. I got the sense from Peterson that he had brains working for him (unlike Matz), and there was a determination in him that I felt would translate to a longer career of success.
No one should be surprised if the guy stumbles some; it’s the nature of success… the better you do, the harder to replicate. But I’m hoping David Peterson shows himself to be a ML starter and an important piece. I’m still going under 4.00 ERA, fewer hits than innings pitched.
Fascinating certainly.
But what’s more interesting to me was this famous musician in 1979, Stevland Morris, who in fact had won more Grammys than anyone besides “Old Blue Eyes”.
He was concerned that there was no national holiday celebrating MLK’s birthday, so he wrote a song (whose lyrics I’ll provide below). Eventually, because he was sooooooo respected, president RWR agreed to meet him. Within 3 years, MLK’s birthday started becoming a national holiday.
What truly amazes me is that Stevland has been blind his entire life, so couldn’t possibly know what MLK looked like. And yet, this man is mostly responsible for it being a national holiday in the USA – you guys know him by his stage name…
Happy Birthday written, arranged, recorded, produced, remixed and all instruments played by Stevie Wonder
You know it doesn’t make much sense
There ought to be a law against
Anyone who takes offense
At a day in your celebration
‘Cause we all know in our minds
That there ought to be a time
That we can set aside
To show just how much we love you
And I’m sure you would agree
What could fit more perfectly
Than to have a world party
on the day you came to be
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday
I just never understood
How a man who died for good
Could not have a day that would
Be set aside for his recognition
Because it should never be
Just because some cannot see
The dream as clear as he
That they should make it become an illusion
And we all know everything
That he stood for time will bring
For in peace, our hearts will sing
Thanks to Martin Luther King
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday
Why has there never been a holiday
Where peace is celebrated
All throughout the world?
The time is overdue
For people like me and you
Who know the way to truth
Is love and unity to all God’s children
It should be a great event
And the whole day should be spent
In full remembrance
Of those who lived and died for the oneness of all people
So let us all begin
We know that love can win
Let it out, don’t hold it in
Sing it loud as you can
We know the key to unity of all people
Is in the dream that you had so long ago
That lives in all of the hearts of people
That believe in unity
(Happy birthday)
We’ll make the dream become a reality
I know we will
Because our hearts tell us so
I get the point about FIP, but when I looked at his game-by-game lines in 2020, I saw only one really bad outing in which Peterson gave up 5 ER in 2 innings against Philadelphia.
That sent his ERA up dramatically in a season in which he pitched under 50 innings.
He also came on strong with two great performances against Atlanta and Washington in his last two starts, going 6 and 7 innings and giving up 1 ER each game.
And I agree with Wobbit in that Peterson passed my eye test most of the time.
Just think about that for a minute.
If people only have a .233 BABIP against you, there’s not a ton of baserunners.
If the baserunners who do get on, score at a lower rate than average – how are you not going to look good?
So the BABIP stat is indicating that Peterson will have a worse season in 2021. Maybe that’s what’s probable. We’ll see. I’m guessing that he’s figuring things out and will have another good season, overall.
The one or two bad outings are going to hurt a pitcher more in a truncated season. Under normal circumstances, the extra runs allowed get blended into the majority of low scoring innings and only raises the ERA a little bit. But in only 49 IP, that one big inning carries significant weight statistically.
I’m not too hip the new metric stats, but I do know that a less than stellar defense costs otherwise good pitchers considerably. I’m sure there is a stat to account for that, but even stats don’t tell the whole story. There’s nothing quite as dependable the old eye test.
How does a guy look on the mound?
How do hitters look against him?
Does he get ahead and put hitters away (not necessarily via strikeout)?
Does he economize his pitches?
Does he throw “balls that look like strikes” when ahead in the count?
Both Matz primarily, but also Syndergaard has at times driven me crazy with 0-2 balls in the strike zone. Why would you do that? Pitchers need to be nasty and greedy.
Wow Brian…..lots of useful information given. Like Wobbit, I’m also not hip on the new metric stats, but I’m slowly learning of their importance in analyzing a players true performances. So overall, I don’t feel too out of place with my earlier prediction of Peterson having a 4.15 ERA over 105 innings for 2021.
Demeanor and poise may not mean much in the world of analytics, but one still has to admire it in a person no matter what they do for a living.
Very thought provoking piece Brian and great research as always.
To hijack Chris F’s comment from the CF thread and apply it here, a guy like Peterson that isn’t overpowering and needs a better BABIP to succeed, isn’t going to be too successful with a leftfielder like Smith and a centerfielder like Nimmo. Even an alignment of Nimmo, Pillar and Conforto is an improvement over what is now. I’m wondering if Smith has worked on his outfield play much since he came late and hasn’t played much.
As I look at next year’s CF free agents and don’t see a single name that inspires me, I wonder more and more why the Mets can’t get a real CF for one of their first basemen.
My father used to say you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
In the last 40 years no starting pitcher their ERA the following year under the criteria you presented. That is a fact.
Maybe Peterson is learning and improving and remain a good pitcher. His last two start were encouraging but history is not on his side to maintain his ERA. Brian didn’t say Peterson was no good , in fact, he presented that Peterson is average starter (MLB average is 4.49) based on his 4.52 FIP. That makes him a bottom of the rotation MLB starter and that is what to expect from him in the future.