Mets 2021 projections: Brandon Nimmo

The season starts in seven days and there are still at least three projections that should be done. So, let’s go ahead and look at Brandon Nimmo. The Spring Training marvel and the on-base machine still has his detractors, although at least no one dismisses him as a fourth outfielder anymore. Well, that’s not 100% true, as lots of people want him to be platooned. It’s funny how no one ever says this about Michael Conforto, even though Nimmo has a higher lifetime OPS versus LHP and has a 30-point edge this Spring.

What most people really ding Nimmo for is his defense. The question is if Nimmo is merely below-average in center field or if he’s one of the worst guys in the majors at the position, like he was in 2020. It’s likely the Mets can live with the former. If it’s the latter then the critics will be out in full force. If Nimmo hits like he did when healthy the past three years, he’ll play somewhere even if his defense in CF forces him away from the center of the diamond. Let’s see what the computer models predict for him in 2021:

ATC – 530 PA, .249/.374/.432, 17 HR, 52 RBIs
BAT – 525 PA, .247/.363/.415, 15 HR, 55 RBIs
MtM – 529 PA, .252/.381/.452, 18 HR, 53 RBIs
RCh – 583 PA, .256/.389/.452, 19 HR, 57 RBIs
STE – 524 PA, .243/.378/.418, 15 HR, 53 RBIs
ZiPS – 498 PA, .244/.373/.437, 16 HR, 49 RBIs

These forecasts are all pretty similar, with the PA discrepancy between ZiPS (498) and RotoChamp (583) being really the only thing to jump out. On one hand, you would think that the leadoff hitter for an offense expected to be one of the best in the league would be forecasted for more PA than what we see here. On the other hand, we have the truncated 2020, the injury-shortened 2019 and a 2018 where he had to establish himself as a full-time player. Still, if these same six projections could get Dominic Smith, who has yet to reach 200 PA in an MLB season, to an average of 535 PA, you’d think they could get Nimmo to 600.

Of course, projection models don’t care about things like that.

Instead, they see a guy entering his age-28 season who’s never topped 535 PA. The playing time estimates for the models makes sense. What’s a little bit more interesting is why the player who put up a .404 OBP in both 2018 and 2020 and who notched a .483 SLG in ’18 and a .484 SLG in ’19 is projected to have an OBP at least 15 points – and as much as 41 points – lower and a SLG at least 32 points lower. It made more sense for bearish projections in 2020, when the injury numbers of 2019 were most recent. It’s my opinion that the 2019 results are being given too much weight. If somehow the models can view Smith’s 199 PA in 2020 as a full season, they should be able to do the same with Nimmo and his 225 PA and .888 OPS last year.

Throughout his career, Nimmo has produced excellent OBP marks. He’s done this with great walk numbers and with a BABIP that brings to mind David Wright’s output in the category. Entering the 2020 season, Nimmo had a .342 lifetime BABIP. His .326 mark in 2020 ended up being 16 points below his then-career average. Yet of the four systems on FanGraphs that show BABIP, two forecast him with a .309 BABIP and the other two have him with a .308 mark.

BABIP can be a volatile number. Even Wright fluctuated between a .302 and a .394 number in the category among seasons with at least 100 games played. But in those 10 years with at least 100 games played, Wright topped his lifetime .339 BABIP seven times. It seems ultra conservative to me to forecast Nimmo for a BABIP 30 points below his career average.

One of my criticisms of Luis Rojas last year was his rush to turn Nimmo into a platoon player based on an incredibly small sample. Nimmo’s gotten the opportunity to play against some LHP this Spring but the results have not been great, even with his triple the other day. However, Nimmo’s results against portsiders is still better than both Conforto and Smith in Grapefruit League action. It’s prudent to expect Nimmo to be on the bench for some lefties this year. But if the club faces, say, 60 starts by a southpaw, then 20 days off apiece for the three lefty-hitting outfielders would seem to be a reasonable strategy.

With all of the above in mind, here’s my totally biased prediction for Nimmo:

625 PA, .270/.390/.485, 20 HR, 60 RBIs

You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you expect Nimmo to do this season.