Dellin Betances and cutting your losses

The sunk cost fallacy is something sports fans are intimately familiar with, even if they don’t realize it. Very generally speaking, the concept is described as continuing an endeavor simply because you’ve already invested a significant amount of time, money, and/or resources on it despite it not being in your best interests. In sports, this commonly takes the form of continuing to throw an underperforming player onto the field because of the size of their contract. The Mets in particular have a history of sticking with veterans long past their expiration dates because, it seemed, they threw good cash at them and by golly they were going to get their money’s worth.

Dellin Betances is the latest example of a former All-Star signing what amounted to a “prove it” contract after returning from a significant injury. The Mets signed him before the 2020 season as a high-upside gamble that has yet to pay off. The same concerns that proved prophetic last Spring Training, namely the reduced velocity on what was once a plus fastball, are again rearing their ugly heads as early warning signs that perhaps he won’t ever regain his former dominant stuff. Rather than cutting their losses, however, manager Luis Rojas has effectively stated that Betances’ spot in the bullpen was never in question.

Feel good stories, like the one in the Post this week describing how Betances understands that he’ll need to make big adjustments in his approach, are clear signs that the writing is on the wall. Per the article:

“Arm strength is down,” a scout said. “He uses his fastball as a show pitch to set up his offspeed, which is still good. I think he’s at the point in his career where he knows he’s going to have to make adjustments in order to survive.”

Quite frankly, and despite my sincere hope that he can rediscover success, the 2021 Mets simply can’t afford to be the springboard on which he attempts to reinvent himself. The Mets will need to field the best possible team from day one, and earmarking a spot on the roster based on past success and dollar signs rather than performance is generally not the best way to do that.

To be fair, the team doesn’t appear to be under the delusion that he’s a high-leverage reliever at this point in his career. Indeed, he could very well be on a short leash to start the season with very few chances to prove he can cut it. Still, that’s something that will have to be seen to be believed, and Rojas specifically will need to fight the urge to turn to him when critical outs are required based on his reputation alone.

In what’s predicted to be a tight National League East, a few losses in early April may mean the difference between a division crown and a wild card berth (or sitting at home). There’s understandable appeal in the unlikely chance that Betances can recapture his pre-injury form, but the team will need to cut their losses sooner rather than later to avoid short-circuiting their season if he shows he simply cannot get the job done.

This may seem like an instance of making a mountain out of a molehill, and over the course of 162 games it may be that a single bullpen arm will not make or break the season. Good bullpens are hard to assemble, after all, and Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson has shown that he’s not particularly good at that aspect of roster construction. How he handles dead weight under new owner Steve Cohen may be telling of his personal ability to move on from mistakes given proper resources, even if they weren’t necessarily his mistakes.

More generally, though, this situation could be an early indicator of how Cohen chooses to leverage his copious wealth. One of the hopes of the Cohen era is that it will bring with it decisive action and cutting bait when required, which would be a welcome reprieve from the Wilpon-era stubbornness and penny pinching. The Mets should explore all avenues in ensuring that they put the best possible team between the lines, and in a perfect world the numbers on a player’s stat sheet should trump the numbers on their paycheck.

Though this might be the first real test of that team-building philosophy and the Cohen/Alderson tandem’s willingness to quickly adjust fire, it certainly won’t be the biggest. A decision will need to be made on a certain over-the-hill second baseman sooner or later, and how quickly they choose to move on from Betances may present us a window into their line of thinking with regard to sunk costs and putting the team in the best position to win.