Previously, we did a comparison of Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard and based on comparables for the last few years, Stroman would be a better deal while Syndergaard would give the bigger upside, but it was recommended to re-sign both. This time, we will take on a tougher challenge and compare Michael Conforto’s upcoming free agency to Brandon Nimmo’s the year after and try to make the call on how to approach each one.
A hot start or cold start could move the needle in early Conforto negotiations. However, Nimmo is in a more difficult position as the team’s front office has openly said he is not a center fielder and was aggressively going after George Springer. So, it is important for Nimmo’s play to keep Joel Sherman, Ken Rosenthal, and other baseball writers from constantly banging the “get a center fielder” drum: any misplay will be magnified and any great play will just be putting off the inevitable for a little while longer. Further, a bad defensive start for Nimmo that necessitates a transaction will affect the roster as it is currently put together and if the Mets wanted to juggle the chemistry, they had all winter to do so. So, the pressure is on Nimmo to have a good early defensive showing to keep the fans calm and allow the Mets to weigh the benefits of either player more quietly.
Some background and the last four years of fWAR on each player:
Michael Conforto: Will be 28 years old going into free agency. He has had several big injuries in his career, affecting his numbers and his production. There was a very ugly shoulder capsule tear on a swing in August 2017 which was preceded by a swollen left hand on a hit by pitch from Matt Moore in June 2017, and we all know hand injuries for hitters are brutal to play through. He also missed some time, but seemingly too little, following a concussion on a collision with Robinson Cano in May 2019 as both chased a pop fly ball in shallow right field along the line. Conforto’s fWAR from 2017 – 2020 has been 4.4, 2.9, 3.7, and 2.0 (5.4 if expanded to a full season), respectively.
Brandon Nimmo: Four weeks younger than Conforto but free agent after next season, he will be going into free agency as a 29 year old. Nimmo has also had several injuries affecting his production and tried to play through them as both were misdiagnosed by the Mets. The most well chronicled one was a neck injury he suffered running full force into the outfield wall in 2019. The Mets just called it whiplash and kept sending him back out there but the 100 plate appearances after the injury gave a .177/.340/.266/.606 slash line until he was finally disabled and tests showed a bulging disk in his neck. Nimmo also had a fragmented 2017 as he was in the minors to start the year, then suffered a collapsed lung less than a month after coming up that caused him to miss close to a month and affected his use for most of the season. Thus, Nimmo has produced fWAR from 2017 – 2020 of 1.2, 4.5 1.3, 1.5 (4.1 if expanded to a full season), respectively. Also, Nimmo’s constant use in center field has left him a negative defender every year in his career according to the analytics.
As we wonder how Conforto and Nimmo will fit into the long term Mets puzzle, we need to step back and ask ourselves exactly how good they really are. If you look at career OPS, Conforto is .843 and Nimmo is .838. Defensively, neither has a strong arm and they both play an adequate corner outfield. However, based on our selected fWAR years and seeing that Springer just got $25 million for an average of 4.8 fWAR per year for his last five years but is 31 years old, we are expecting free agent 29 year–old Conforto to demand something around $25 million average per year on his next deal based on an average of 4.1 fWAR, and 30 year-old free agent Nimmo to probably demand somewhere around $16 million per year based on an average of 3.5 fWAR.
Some people may feel that Nimmo is the better deal and his two years of trying to play hurt left him further behind whereas Conforto only played hurt for an extended stretch one year, and there is logic there. However, yours truly will say that neither should be a must re-sign and the Mets should sign prioritize the two pitchers and whichever one of these guys cuts them a very good deal, and here’s why.
Trying to create a blueprint of how to win consistently, we will take a couple of perennial winners lately, the Yankees and the Astros. When the Yankees won four World Series in five years, they did so by having a “Core 4” of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera: Two pitchers, a shortstop and a catcher. When the Astros were doing their thing the past few years, it was Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, George Springer and very recently acquired Justin Verlander and more recently acquired Garrit Cole. Notice the emphasis on up the middle players and although Bregman is a good slugging young third baseman, he came up a good defensive shortstop. Every position player named here is a strong two way player; no one dimensional guys here. Even the weakest pitcher named here, Pettitte, while not having the best regular season numbers knew how to turn it on in October.
So, back to our discussion. Is Conforto or Nimmo on this level? No, that’s my point. The Mets have three elite players to start with in deGrom, Lindor and Syndergaard. They will either find one more truly elite player, or collect as many of these “very good” players as they can. Hopefully, one or two “very good” players turn out to be complimentary pieces such as Bernie Williams who had seven years out of eight in his prime of pretty much 5.0 fWAR (at least 4.8) and above. Right now, neither Conforto or Nimmo are on this level, but it appears Conforto is closer. So again, sign the pitchers and see what deals these guys give you because at least one of them needs to be upgraded. Please forgive the honesty fellow Mets fans.
Since I think the trend in baseball will eventually deemphasize the bigger contracts, I prefer signing the two outfielders and consider them corner outfielders while trying to nail the right CFer of the future. Nimmo and Conforto can be long-time producers offensively and will adequately defend the corner OF positions. Sign them early and maybe for a tad less than they might bring while holding out… I realize Scott Boras will probably not permit this…
Meanwhile pitchers are harder to grant long-term contracts to. Pitchers are far too subject to injuries to be as dependable as position players. Strohman is a complete unknown at this point. I love Syndergaard but who is he at this point? I really doubt you want to commit that much salary to players yet to prove their physical health and on-field performance. If Thor is his former self and can offer 200 innings a year, he’s really valuable.
Mauricio, Baty, and Crow-Armstrong, not to mention the future bounty of FAs, ensure that the Mets have options at several key positions. Lock up Nimmo after this season, Conforto sooner, let McNeil, Dom, and JD play their way into indispensibility. For now, be happy we have C and SS solidified… wait and see as the others develop.
Wobbit, before you sign
both of them and then look for a center fielder which isn’t available in next off-season’s shopping season, consider this: Compare the Dodgers’ Betts and Bellinger to our top two outfielders, Conforto and
Nimmo; it’s not even close. And don’t count Lindor in this comparison because Seager is just as good and Turner can match Alonso’s best days. If the Mets resign both Nimmo and Conforto and commit $40MM, they still aren’t even close to their competitors best two outfielders, then have to pay Lindor, JDG, Syndergaard and maybe Stroman along with 10+MM pitchers Corrasco and Walker? How will you close the talent gap between these two teams? The only way is to use Conforto’s money to get a very good player at a good deal. Think the Brewers getting Yelich or Cain.
“And don’t count Lindor in this comparison because Seager is just as good and Turner can match Alonso’s best days.”
With all due respect, I severely disagree. Not that my opinion means much (mainly since I rarely voice it here), but you are going to have to prove this to me.
I assert that Lindor is currently the best SS in BB
And Turner match any of Alonso’s days?
Har har hardy har har
No problem, see for yourself:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/corey-seager/13624/stats?position=SS
Seager put up back to back 6.0+ fWAR seasons, then got hurt. Upon returning last year, he put up a 5+ season.
Thank you Brian for this brilliant piece on analyzing these two Mets outfielders, that seems to have their respective advocates among the fan base. I’ll admit to being partial towards Nimmo over Conforto; and while I wish them both success this season, a stong one for Conforto means insane, stupid money for him as a free agent. Questions.
Can the Mets afford that; when sliding Nimmo over to the corner and using that insane, stupid money to try to sign a true CF for 2022 make more sense? (What is the market for free agent CF next year going to be?) (Maybe Almonte will be a pleasant surprise, or Nimmo wont be as awful in CF this year.) I just see Nimmo as having more value as a great lead off man; and placed back in the corner, having more overall value.
I will say I was not aware of how similar in age they both are.
Gus wrote this, not me.
Nimmo was drafted out of high school while Conforto was drafted from college, which makes their same age status not immediately clear.
Brian, don’t forget, Conforto was drafted in 2014 and in the majors by mid-2015. Nimmo languished for a few years because all we heard is he can’t hit lefties. Meanwhile he put up .349 against them one year.
Nimmo had several injuries in the minors and lost the speed that made him a track star in high school.
Sorry Ffotballhead, forgot to answer your question. There is absolutely nothing next year for center field on the free agent market. If Jackie Bradley opts out, that’s it. Glad you liked the piece.
When Cohen bought the Mets he stated that his goal was a championship. He also knew that the starting pitching was in a shambles and the core position players were arbitration eligible and would be costly if he wanted to attain his goal. He compounded his expense when he obtained Lindor. The man knew that was going to spend money to reach his goal. The direct way to achieve his goal is extend all four players , in priority, Syndergaard, Stroman (because good starting pitching is expensive and hard to replace), Conforto and Nimmo at fair market value. Conforto is better than Nimmo.
Conforto 5/110 and Nimmo 5/72 with both contracts starting in next year.
Word has it Boras wants at least $200MM for his client… I don’t know the years involved, but if a 31 year old outfielder got 6/150 just this past offseason, a 29 year old probably wants that AAV at the very minimum and if he has a great year, forget it.
Looking at the fWAR comparisons for Conforto and Springer in their 24-27 age seasons: Conforto 16.4 ( extrapolating 2020), Springer 15.3.
Springer accumulated 14.5 (extrapolating 2020) in his 28-30 age seasons and his market value was determined at 6/$150M.
Will Conforto accumulate 14.5 fWAR in the next three seasons when he averaged 4.1 fWAR in the previous 4 years? It should be close so therefore Conforto should be extended at least 6/$150m if not more money because he 29 and not 31 like Springer.
I stand corrected by you Gus.
With all due respect to the fWAR and age comparisons between Springer and Conforto, Springer had added cache/value in the FA market due to his ability to play a decent CF as well as his postseason performance history. Now, I do think Boras will aim for $200 million, which is why talks between the Mets and Conforto went nowhere. I would love the Mets to retain both Conforto and Nimmo, but I think it will be one or the other. So, I have a feeling that Nimmo and Dom will both perform better defensively this year. Still below average, but in a more tolerable way. I also expect Almora to bounce back some and provide decent CF coverage. If these developments occur, I suspect the Mets will turn away from Boras and Conforto and towards Nimmo, and put bigger money into pitching be it Syndergaard, Stroman, or a free agent.
Appreciate the kindness Metsense, but I wasn’t trying to correct you, just wanted to offer information that I heard to get your perspective on. As TJ points out below, Springer marketed himself as a CF even though he was 16 out of 20 last year in dWAR, and everyone knew he’d move off the position sooner rather than later. It didn’t hurt that the biggest market team that had a huge hole in CF was bidding against another team that felt it just had to sign a big name.
While I have a feeling Conforto is coming into his own, it is hard to justify $200MM. But, Springer wanted $175MM and got close… Lindor wanted $385MM and got $341MM… might as well shoot for the moon.
One thing to consider is the top prospects in our farm system. We don’t have much in the way of corner outfielders. We’ve effectively blocked Mauricio from being our shortstop of the future and that creates a logjam at third with Mauricio, Batty and Viento, to say nothing of Davis. Allen and Ginn are maybe two years away as reinforcements for the starting rotation, with the possibility of Szupucki, with a few other prospects coming up behind them. Of course, Alvarez is our catcher of the future, but how he is impacted by McCann. It seems to me that you have the impending free agents play for their next contract and decide once we see how the kids do this year. Having said that pitching is the key to success and the Mets don’t have good options if Nimmo and Conforto sign elsewhere.