After a miserable 2019 season, Edwin Diaz didn’t get off to a great start in 2020. But after a shaky first few outings, Diaz ended up posting great numbers, even if none of the fanbase had much faith when he entered the game. His strikeout numbers last year were ridiculous. If you didn’t watch him pitch, and just looked at the box score after the game, you’d think he was the most dominant guy you could ever hope to have in a Mets uniform. But if you watched him, it too often felt like a tightrope act. We know the computer models didn’t watch, so let’s see what they forecast for Diaz this season:
ATC – 64 IP, 3.01 ERA, 106 Ks, 25 BB, 7 HR
BAT – 63 IP, 2.91 ERA, 97 Ks, 23 BB, 7 HR
MtM – 65 IP, 4.02 ERA, 92 Ks, 26 BB, 10 HR
RCh – 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 89 Ks, 23 BB
STE – 63 IP, 2.82 ERA, 96 Ks, 25 BB, 7 HR
ZiPS – 66.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 114 Ks, 25 BB, 8 HR
That’s a fair amount of variance for a guy who’s been in the league several years but most of it is coming from Marcel. Take that forecast away and they all pretty much see the same guy. And Marcel has just a few more walks, fewer strikeouts and a couple of more homers. It doesn’t take a lot when you’re only talking 60-something innings.
As a fan, would you be happy with THE BAT forecast above, essentially the median forecast? Given what we witnessed in 2019, it would be hard to say no to that line. Still, it’s nowhere near the dominating 2018 season Diaz turned in. And the ERA doesn’t match last year, although it would come with an improved WHIP.
Moving away from the computer forecasts, it’s probably a good thing that we’re not being bombarded with how since it’s an odd-numbered year that Diaz will suffer a down season. We all know how awful 2019 was. But 2017 wasn’t too far away from what our computer models are forecasting above. And we have the dominant 2018 and a 2020 that looks awfully good on paper.
The question is: How much we should be influenced by what happened in 2019?
It’s recent enough that it should factor in … somehow. And there’s not an injury or something that would make it convenient to sweep it under the rug. Yet somehow that’s exactly what feels right to me to do here. It’s such an outlier that it’s hard for me to take seriously, like someone putting up a .412 BABIP.
In a way, it’s almost a bit like Carlos Beltran, who had a disappointing first year in Queens and then was pretty darn good afterwards. Yes, Diaz’ 2019 was worse than Beltran’s 2005. But Beltran followed up with three straight years where he drew MVP votes and only an injury kept it from being a fourth.
For Diaz, the memories of 2019 aren’t fading quickly and each time he comes to the mound you worry that he’ll give up a gopher ball. But maybe we should just be like Earl Weaver whenever he brought Don Stanhouse into a game and just reach for a pack of cigarettes to calm our nerves. Weaver said of Stanhouse: “He doesn’t suffer from stress; he’s a carrier.”
As someone who’s not a fan of cigarettes, let me offer another way to cope. In the movie, “Midnight Run,” the bad guy tells his accountant to, “relax, have a cream soda.” Go out and buy three cases of cream soda and crack one each time Diaz comes into the game. And thank me when the year’s over.
My totally biased prediction for Diaz is – 70.1 IP, 2.05 ERA, 117 Ks, 23 BB, 6 HR
You’ll have more credibility if you weigh in now with what you think Diaz will do this year.
I think Edwin Diaz is a humble guy with an introverted personality. He liked Seattle for those reasons and was shell- shocked in NYC for those reasons. He found himself in a no-win situation with the crush of media… part of him wanted to disappear.
Add that psychological issue to the issues with the baseball itself, which I do not believe were made up. The tighter stitching made the ball harder to break, and his slider flattened out. Apparently he worked that out, which could have made 2020 more approachable for him. He might also have enjoyed the empty stadiums and limited access to the public and media.
Going forward, we are all wishing the kid good luck. As the season moves forward, as the pennant race heightens and tightens, things will get hairy for him… I can see him stumbling on the biggest stages. Hopefully his superior stuff will prevail in most occasions, and hopefully his coaching staff will offer him maximum support where he needs it.
I’m betting he will be very good (great stuff) and not great (confidence issues) this season… a lot rides on management’s navigation through the treacherous waters protecting late-inning leads.
I think Diaz will be solid this year. Predictions are:
66 IP, 2.80 ERA, 115 Ks, 23 BB, 5 HRs allowed.
The reason that we have no confidence in Diaz is because his WHIP was still a heart attack inducing 1.247 – ranking him 79th out of 141 relievers with 20+ IP last year. Among “closers” he was probably back of the pack.
Too often we marvel at K/9 as a measure of a shutdown reliever when really it should be WHIP and ERA. You should rather have a guy who doesn’t allow men on base than can strike out the side.
I see the walk problems getting worse.
45 IP. 28 walks, 1.35 WHIP. 4.10 ERA.
Good to see you again!
There were 41 pitchers with at least 4 Saves last year. Among them, Diaz’ WHIP ranked 22nd or pretty much middle of the pack. If anything, it’s a surprise his WHIP wasn’t even higher, given the elevated BB/9 and a .381 BABIP. Of course it helps when you’re striking out 45.5% of the batters who come to the plate.
70 IP, 2.71 ERA, 118 K’s, 17 BB, 7 HR, and 46 Saves
2019 still haunts me. In his first 24 appearances he had a 1.64 ERA but on May 28, 2019 his season unraveled. The short season 2020 he had 26 excellent appearances. I’m concerned that he can stay good though out 162 game season but I think he can.
2.22 ERA
40 saves
15 k/9
at least 3 really bad blown saves though. like really bad.