Just how good was Jacob deGrom’s start yesterday? In case you missed it somehow, deGrom had the following line – 8 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 Ks. That’s an outstanding line for anyone and it seems an incredible one to end up in a loss. Back in the 1980s, Bill James came up with a formula to rank how good a start was with his Game Score metric. It rewards things like innings and strikeouts while penalizes things like hits, walks and runs. It’s designed so that an average outing for a starter is worth 50 points. Yesterday’s outing by deGrom resulted in a Game Score of 82, which is tied with Gerrit Cole for the sixth-best mark of the 2021 season.
The top mark this year is by Joe Musgrove, who turned in a 97 in his no-hitter a couple of days ago. All of the games that scored better than deGrom’s resulted in a no decision or win for the pitcher, making this the best start for a pitcher tagged with a loss. But how does it rate among pitchers who took the loss? Since 2000, there have been 37 pitchers with a Game Score of 80 or more who also were saddled with an L. Back in 2012, James Shields threw a complete game, allowed just two hits and fanned 15 but was on the wrong end of a 1-0 game. He earned a 94 Game Score, the tops for a losing pitcher this century. In all, 14 pitchers had a higher Game Score than deGrom yesterday and five others matched his output.
If we expand our list to include pitchers who didn’t receive a decision in our query, we find the highest Game Score of the 21st Century belongs to a Met. But it’s not deGrom. In May of 2013, Matt Harvey allowed just one hit in nine shutout innings and fanned 12 without walking a batter, which produced a Game Score of 97. The Mets waited until the 10th inning to score and wound up with a 1-0 victory. It’s hard to remember now, because deGrom has a death grip on the category, but at one point, Mets fans lamented about the team’s inability to score when Harvey was on the mound. The 2013 Mets were hardly an offensive juggernaut, as they finished 11th in the NL with an average of 3.82 runs per game. But when Harvey pitched that season, the team averaged 3.37 runs per game, a number distorted by three games with seven runs and two with eight.
REGRESSION COMES FOR CONFORTO WITH A VENGEANCE – We all knew that Michael Conforto wasn’t going to post a .412 BABIP again. But somehow, we didn’t believe that the gods would come after him with such vigor this quickly. Through five games, Conforto has just a .231 BABIP but that doesn’t tell the full stories of his struggles. For that, we can blame his 8 Ks in 21 ABs. And to complete the picture, Conforto has just one extra-base hit and one walk in 24 PA. He’s got a .440 OPS, a mark that high thanks to two HBP.
THE BEST RELIEVER WHO ISN’T A STARTER – The bullpen has not distinguished itself in early action, a sentence that surprises just about no one who follows the team. But if you said there was one guy who was giving a solid performance, an equal number of people would have guessed that pitcher was Miguel Castro, who came into the season with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.431 WHIP in 283 innings. Castro has appeared in three games and has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.19 FIP. The biggest surprise of all is that he hasn’t allowed a walk. Last year in 9 IP with the Mets, Castro allowed 8 BB. It’s a continuation of his performance in Grapefruit League play, where in 7.1 IP, he gave up just 1 BB.
SLOW STARTS FOR OFFSEASON IMPORTS – While Conforto takes the brunt of the criticism for the Mets’ slow start on offense, he has plenty of company. Francisco Lindor and James McCann have identical 3-17 lines, with neither player delivering an extra-base hit. They both sport matching .176 AVG and SLG marks. Lindor has four walks, giving him the edge in OBP. Besides Brandon Nimmo, it’s hard to find a Met off to a strong start. Luis Guillorme is 3-6 with 2 BB. Maybe with a RHP getting a start today, Guillorme will find himself in the starting lineup.
YOU KNEW IT WAS COMING – The average NL team has a .232/.313/.393 line for a .706 OPS. With RISP those numbers are .236/.342/.380 for a .721 (rounding) OPS. A better OBP, a worse SLG and an overall better OPS than numbers in all situations. Meanwhile, the Mets overall have a .222/.333/.333 line. A little better than average in getting on base but significantly worse in the power department. But with RISP, the Mets have a .146/.351/.171 line. That .522 OPS in nearly 200 points worse than league average and ranks 13th in the 15-team NL. Not enough hits and nowhere near enough power.
Bleh!
I realize that it’s good having a Hispanic manager (especially given that my wife is Puerto Rican despite my 100% Italian status), and the dude is a son of the immortal Felipe Alou, but how long are we going to accept this novice manager?
Don’t forget that he was imposed on us during the Coupon Era. Why couldn’t we have gotten a Joe Girardi? Or am I just plain stupid?
Buck Showalter is available, and Bochy only wanted one year off and he’s had it now. Let’s see what happens and for how long. I’m referring to the decision as much as the lethargic look of the lineup.
It’s early,Brian,very early!m
Only 2 starts, but deGrom has an ERA+ of 614! 614!! In 2018, in 32 starts, it was a league-leading 218. Maybe he’ll surpass that high this year.
Conforto does look lost at the plate, taking third strikes in key situations and swinging under pitches. But we’ve seen him do this before, and he should right the ship again. Booing him is bush. Of course, this is frustrating and I think he should be dropped in the order for now.
As I’ve made clear in the past, I think that Nimmo is underrated and should be extended along with Conforto sooner rather than later. Nimmo will only cost more later. Same with Syndergaard.
I highly doubt that Steve Cohen will show panic and fire Rojas so quickly. But whether Luis will make it to the ASG is another story. If the Mets truly flounder, the new owner will have to make the move to get “his own manager” in place. I like Buck, even if no one else does…
I also want to put a watch on Villar. Since watching him the last two seasons, I was skeptical of his ability to help the team. My challenge: he will do twice as many negative things during games than positive things.
Good defensive plays (not just routine), extra base hits, stolen bases, sac bunts, and special base-running feats all would count as positive.
Especially bad ABs (there will be plenty), errors of any kind, base-running blunders (like watching potential HRs instead of digging out of the box) will count as negative plays.
Hell, I don’t have to tell the readers of this site what negative is, you’ll see it. Plus the guy looks 10 pounds overweight (this is me being kind)… hardly helping his one major asset…
Also, Toronto has this lefty who’s 2-0 in 2 starts with a 1.46 ERA. His initials are S.M.
So now we know what was behind one of the most famous homers in Met history…Shields was so scarred by the loss with a 94 game score that he was never the same, offering up the wonderful long ball by Big Sexy…but that story gets even more unbelievable as the White Sox, post Big Sexy HR, dealt Tatis Jr. for Mr. Shields, clearly expecting that 94 game score version to re-emerge. Now Jake, he has ice in his veins.
Five games is five games, but it is amplified every year when the real games begin, but the ebbs and flows will even out over time. Yes, Lindor has the pressure to live up to his deal, and McCann to live up t his year plus of quality play. But, Conforto is lost right now, and he concerns me the most. We can’t get in his head, but given the gap in perception of value between him and the team, he most certainly knows that he won’t be extended. The pressure to perform for contract value, combined with the expectations for the team and his spot in the lineup, that can lead to extended slumping, which could lead to a lost season. Hopefully, that is not the case.
Speaking of a reliever, that’s who Mattingly used to start this game whereas Rojas burned Stroman.