Going into the 2021 season, Met fans had justifiably high expectations. The starting pitching shaped up to be excellent, catching appeared to be upgraded over 2020, and the outfield looked solid. Then there was the middle infield. It looked possible, if not probable, that the combination of shortstop Francisco Lindor and second baseman Jeff McNeil would be the best the Mets ever had.
In the past, the Mets have had an elite shortstop in Jose Reyes in his prime, and Edgardo Alfonzo in his prime, but their careers with the Mets did not overlap. The most successful Met teams, the World Series champs of 1969 and 1986, had light-hitting shortstops in Bud Harrelson and Rafael Santana.
The 2021 Mets however, appeared to have elite players in the middle infield. Lindor was a four-time all star with four Gold Glove awards, and McNeil in his three MLB seasons was a one-time all star and consistent .300 hitter with a lifetime mark of .316. Both players are in the prime of their careers.
Both, however, are off to rocky starts. Lindor, in five games, is slashing at an anemic rate of .176/.348/.176, with no homers, no SB, and one CS. McNeil is producing a .077/.250/.308 line, with one homer (it was a big one that tied a game the Mets eventually won, thanks to Michael Conforto’s elbow expertise.)
These stats of course, are from a tiny fraction of this year’s games. There is plenty of time for both Lindor and McNeil to right the ship. There are however, some causes for concern, but also some light at the end of the tunnel.
We’ll start with Lindor. Although he had a great career with Cleveland, his production slipped considerably in the shortened 2020 season. He produced a slash line of .258/.335/.415, not bad for a shortstop but certainly well below the rate he had been producing at for his career. This drop-off is certainly not an encouraging sign.
Then there was the big contact extension Lindor signed just before opening day. The 341 million dollar, ten year contract could prove to be an albatross for the Mets. Many players have signed rich, long-term contracts, and then underperformed. Albert Pujols with the Angels would be one example of this. The Mets had a similar fate with the 66 million dollar, four year contract given to Jason Bay some years ago. The weird Bobby Bonilla contract that pays him over a million dollars a year all the way to 2035, decades after his career ended, was also one that was not justified by his play. The concern here involving Lindor is that after signing for such a huge salary in a long-term deal, his incentive to perform is reduced.
The concerns with McNeil are different. He has no long term contract as he has not yet been arbitration eligible, if anything he has increased incentive to perform. A concern would be that his slump started even before the season began. Of course ST games don’t count, but McNeil had a terrible spring, in 55 PA in the Grapefruit League he hit .109/.255/.239, not an encouraging level of production. McNeil is as competitive as anyone, and he may be pressing. He has felt a few repercussions from his poor start, with manager Luis Rojas dropping him in the batting order and benching him for a game.
There is an encouraging sign that applies to both players, and that appears to be that both are batting in bad luck. According to the Baseball Reference batted ball stat, Lindor has a hard-hit rate of 41.2% this season. It’s a bit below his usual figure, but still pretty good, especially for a shortstop. McNeil is doing even better with a 50% hard-hit rate on balls in play. It looks like both Lindor and McNeil have been putting good wood on the ball, but unfortunately too often the hits are not dropping in. This should even out over time.
There have been some great shortstop-second baseman combinations throughout baseball history, like Pee Wee Reese and Jackie Robinson, Luis Aparicio and Nelson Fox, and more recently Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano. Despite their ice-cold starts, it would be no great surprise if Lindor and McNeil revert to their mean production as those hard hit balls finally elude fielders. If that happens, the middle infield combination of Lindor and McNeil might be worthy of ranking with the other great middle infields cited.
Lindor is too accomplished a player and too good an athlete to dip very much. Sure, he might under-perform and may fall short of great expectations, but we can assume very good defense and fairly productive offense from the #2 position in the batting order (I like him there).
McNeil is a different story. He is below average defensively, and I do not expect him to improve much in that regard. It would be a huge win if he should attain average status, make the routine plays and keep crucial errors to a minimum. One also has to be concerned that he can take the physical grind of the middle infield. His bat is too important to the team to miss significant playing time. It’s nice to have Guillorme as a backup, but he is needed at 3B even more, and Villar’s overall play pales in comparison to McNeil.
If Jeff stays on the field, hits .300, and provides some timely hitting with RISP, this middle infield area of the team will be a plus.
I’d be very happy if Lindor/McNeil have seasons amounting to average for their career stats.
Their bigger problems lie with the mgr, bullpen and general consistency
Thanks–not just for the analysis of the persent, but to reminisce of DP combos of yore. Besides the 3 you mention (and I already had Reese/Robinson & Aparicio/Fox in mind before I got to that paragraph) I was contemplating Concepcion/Margan, Trammel/Whitaker, Kubek/Richardson, Aparicio?anybody and even … wait for it … Fregosi/Knoop!.
As good as Lindor was/is/will continue to be, Lindor/McNeil is not up there with the saints.
Not worth worrying about Lindor at this point. He mashed all Spring, and sure it Spring, but the guy can do this. hes got an undeniable track record. McNeil, by contrast, is now at his best defensive position, which is good but not great (hopefully Lindor makes him *and* whoever is at 3B better). So if his offense drops then he becomes a go to bench player. No need to play it out that far of course right now, but the feeling of certainty is a lot more shaky that with Lindor.
*sigh*
It would be great if the Mets started a season in which they were expected to be a contender (or at least competitive) , you know, actually playing well.
Not concerned at all with either Lindor nor McNeil, honestly. I really don’t expect Lindor to put up his best seasons with the Mets (I do think those are in the past), but I do expect him to be excellent for a while.
McNeil is an…odd one. I don’t think there’s real reason to be concerned, but he kind of burst onto the scene. Hopefully he isn’t one that burns bright but flames out fast.