The Mets – or perhaps more accurately Mets fans – spent a lot of the offseason chasing someone to come in and play center field. At one point, it seemed like a done deal that they were going to sign George Springer. And then after Springer went to Toronto, many fans and online writers were banging the drum for Jackie Bradley Jr. One site posted several roster prediction articles during the winter that had Bradley as being on the Mets’ Opening Day roster.
The Mets opted to keep Brandon Nimmo in center and early returns are encouraging. Springer has yet to play a game this season. He suffered an oblique injury in Spring Training and while rehabbing from that, he injured his quad. And Bradley? Well, he’s doing pretty much what you would expect. He’s playing a good defensive center field but providing very little at the plate. Bradley has a +2 DRS but just a .643 OPS, despite being used essentially as a platoon player. And the really bad news is that with the platoon advantage, Bradley has a .591 OPS with a .292 BABIP.
Meanwhile, Nimmo is making the plays in center field, at least so far. He had one nice running catch but has been mostly a non-factor (good or bad) out there, at least to my eyes. DRS agrees, giving him a 0 or league average rating. UZR is not so kind, hanging a (-0.7) rating on him, due mostly to bad range. Doesn’t sound like much but that translates to a UZR/150 of (-29.8) which is even worse than what he did in 2020.
fWAR uses UZR in its calculations and has Nimmo with a 0.7 mark. Meanwhile, Bradley checks in with a 0.1 fWAR. The hits are really falling in for Nimmo and it’s very safe to say that he won’t end the year with an fWAR 7X that of Bradley. Maybe not as safe to say but it sure doesn’t seem like Bradley is going to follow up with another good offensive year. Currently, he has a .310 BABIP (12 points above his career mark in the category) yet just a 73 wRC+, compared to the 120 wRC+ he posted in 2020.
And in the things that seem shocking department – Nimmo has gone four straight games now without a walk. He still has a .571 OBP, though. And it’s not really an outlier for him at all, either. Nimmo had a stretch last year of four walk-less games and it wasn’t even his longest span of the year. In August, Nimmo went eight straight games without earning a free pass.
HITTERS GO TO THE AIR AGAINST METS ACE – It’s next to impossible to complain about the start of Jacob deGrom. It seemed that maybe the gopher ball would be a potential gripe – the nerve of him giving up two homers in three games – but that’s just about what should be expected. Home runs follow a somewhat predictable ratio with fly balls. MLB as a whole has a 13.3 HR/FB rate and deGrom has an 11.1 rate. The issue for deGrom is that he has a 52.9 FB%, compared to a 33.5 lifetime mark in the category. deGrom’s FB% is the third-highest in MLB among qualified pitchers. It’ll be interesting to see if this is an early-season fluke or something that hitters are trying to do against the game’s best pitcher.
THE HOT CORNER IS A HOT POTATO – The early-season injury to J.D. Davis has thrown an unsettled third base situation into an even more uncertain one. But the confusion is due to several good options, rather than all bad ones. Davis returned Saturday but finds himself in a battle with the OBP and alleged defensive superiority of Luis Guillorme along with the SLG exploits of Jonathan Villar for playing time at third base. Guillorme has a .533 OBP while Villar has seen four of his six hits go for extra-bases. Guillorme especially seems to deserve more playing time. Perhaps Luis Rojas will use him to spell both Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor a couple of times a month to get him in the lineup.
THE METS’ REAL STRIKEOUT MACHINE – Sure, deGrom has back-to-back 14 K outings. But Trevor Hildenberger made his Mets debut in the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, pitched an inning and recorded two strikeouts. This Spring, Hildenberger had 9 Ks in 3.1 IP. So, in a Mets uniform, Hildenberger has recorded 13 outs and 11 of those have come via the whiff. With Jacob Barnes being plagued by the gopher ball, Hildenberger has a good shot to stick around in the pen for a while.
THE JOYS OF DENVER IN APRIL – The Mets had their opening game against the Rockies snowed out, which necessitated a doubleheader yesterday, which was played in less-than-ideal temperatures. You know that someone, somewhere is exclaiming – Why don’t they just play all early games in warm-weather sites or at venues with domes? Basically, the warm weather/dome teams would be 100% against this – as those games don’t draw as well as sunny July games. It would cost those teams money, which is why it isn’t done.
A better question would be – Why don’t teams play exclusively within their division the first six or eight series of the year? This way, if there’s a postponement, you can easily have a makeup the next time the team comes to your city. The Mets and Rockies lose a game and it’s forced to be made up when it’s in the 30s out there.
It seems like the Mets play in Colorado in April fairly often but this is the first time that’s happened since 2013. What’s driving that perception is that it also happened in 2012. And 2010. After yesterday’s split, the Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 April games in Colorado. If you had told me they were 1-10, I would have believed you.
Nimmo was the best choice from the beginning. Defensive ratings are subjective.
Even if teams played in their division early on, there are five teams in each division, so some one needs to play outside of their own from each division. Then, you have the travel factor: the Mets are already across the country, why just play one series and come back? So, they throw in the Cubbies too, more freezing. Where’s San Francisco to make it the trifecta?
That’s a good point and another reason to favor expansion to 32 teams so we can have 4-team divisions
Love this article. I did catch on the word allegedly for Guillorme’s defense… which is clearly superior. And it’s a bit harsh to consider the 100mph to Chisholm a gopher ball… the kid can hit. More astute may be to consider why the 0-2 pitch needs to be over the heart of the plate, but I’m guessing DeGrom would agree.
The defensive concerns in the starting OF are not going away. Every fly ball seems like more an adventure than it should be, but we knew that. Yet, many of us still wanted Nimmo over Bradley in the lineup. I’ll be interested for Brian to compare Nimmo and Springer when the sample size is adequate.
What I really hope is that Rojas does not get too enamored with Villar in the infield. If he is great off the bench, then leave him more on the bench. Everyone knows he booted that ball in the first inning, regardless of what the official scorer said… and it opened the floodgates. He just is not a good fielder. Also, why did McNeil never show up in the outfield on the triple off the fence? We always teach middle infielders to follow the path of the ball with their feet… he should have been drifting into right field on the hit, and should have entered the picture at least… but I know I’m being picky.
Suffice to say, the Mets defense will cost them ballgames… we gotta hope the offense and pitching win more of them.
I’ll take your bait – how many of the Mets’ losses this year are attributable to the defense? Be specific
If you take into account Aldersonian logic, defense and pitching are on the same side of ball accounting for the other 50% of the game. Thus, it is logical to figure that 100% of the losses are the defense’s fault.
I can’t say that any of the losses this year have been the defense’s fault.
I do not lump the defense in with the pitching.
Thus the use of the verb… “will cost” above… future tense.
McCann’s throw to the end the game Sunday a big plus 1.
The Met comeback win for deGrom was huge in multiple levels. A little lower on that list was getting the defense off the hook. It was utterly horrendous, making 4 mistakes in a very short sequence. McNeil’s error to start the inning, followed by Conforto’s misjudge of the ball off the wall, conbined with McNeil’s lack of backing up. Next was Conforto’s very poor throw on the sac fly. Errors happen, but the multiple consecutive gaffs are killer. Rallying back from that mess, combined with picking up the ace, this is the stuff that can help teams get mentally tougher.
The Met comeback win for deGrom was huge in multiple levels. A little lower on that list was getting the defense off the hook. It was utterly horrendous, making 4 mistakes in a very short sequence. McNeil’s error to start the inning, followed by Conforto’s misjudge of the ball off the wall, conbined with McNeil’s lack of backing up. Next was Conforto’s very poor throw on the sac fly. Errors happen, but the multiple consecutive gaffs are killer. Rallying back from that mess, combined with picking up the ace, this is the stuff that can help teams get mentally tougher.
Without the DH there was no reason to spend the money for Springer or Bradley. Signing Pillar and Almora was the right play.
In regard to 3B: Davis should start vs LHP . Vs RHP used the hot bat primarily and other times split Davis, Villar and Guillorme equally . Guillorme should be the late inning defensive replacement. Nice problem to have.
Barnes three run homers are devastating and he should be demoted and someone else should get a chance. Hildenberger is a likely candidate.
MLB should expand to 32 teams, 4 teams in a division in each league. Charlotte would be a good choice.
San Antonio? Las Vegas?