After a fast start to the 2020 season, we took a look last August at what was different with Mets first baseman and outfielder Dominic Smith. He continued his hot start through the end of the season and even received some down ballot votes for NL MVP, finishing 13th in a breakout season.
But this year, Smith’s numbers have come back down to earth, so it is worth taking a look at some of the changes from last year and see if they have stuck or not. Of course with only 60 games last year and a handful more in 2021, we are still dealing with a relatively small sample size, but it’s worth reviewing these data.
Hitting the ball hard
One of the biggest differences last year for Smith was a huge leap in his exit velocity. His average exit velocity jumped from 88.1 MPH in 2019 to 89.8. While that jump may not appear significant on the surface, that increase correlates to around a 30-point increase in expected batting average.
This season, Smith’s average exit velocity has ticked up even further, to 91 mph. He’s just behind players like Miguel Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, and ahead of Josh Donaldson and Kyle Schwarber. His hard-hit rate has also stayed high – in the 70th percentile of hitters and in the company of Carlos Correa and Randy Arozarena. His Hard Hit% is 47.4%, up from 34.9% in 2019.
Last year Statcast categorized 13.3% of Smith’s batted balls as barrels, shattering his previous career high of 8.4%. This season, Statcast shows a Barrel% of 21.1%, an elite mark in the game and ahead of players like Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
The adjustments made by Smith before the 2020 season have indeed stuck and been successful in helping Smith hit the ball with authority more often than he did in previous seasons. With his relative struggles at the plate, these data backs up the eye test. When he hits the ball, he is driving it with authority, and his .353 BABIP shows he hasn’t necessarily been the victim of bad luck on those balls.
Pitch selection and contact rate
Last season Smith showed some improvements in his pitch selection. He swung at more pitches in general both in and out of the strike zone, but he chased pitches that he was able to make contact with at a high rate. This is an area where the former first round pick has regressed this season.
He is swinging at a career-high 80.6% of pitches in the strike zone, but is only making contact 62% of the time (compared 71.9% and 80.8% last year, respectively). Smith is chasing more pitches out of the strike zone, and making contact on those chases less often. It all adds up to a career-high 54.6% swing rate, but a career-worst 42.9% whiff rate. Not a good combination.
Smith’s strikeout rate is a shocking 38.2%, and his walk rate is only 5.9%, the second-lowest of his career. Looking for clues as to what is happening, you notice a change in the way that pitchers have attacked him this season. They are throwing Smith fewer fastballs and breaking balls, and more offspeed pitches.
Last season, Smith posted an xwOBA of just .327 against offspeed pitches compared to .411 against fastballs and .399 against breaking balls. The adjustment to feed him more of his weakness has worked and Smith has posted only a .197 xwOBA against offspeed this season, compared to .725 against fastballs and .266 on breaking balls.
There could be several factors at play here, not the least of which that Smith has only played nine games this season and small sample sizes often result in funky statistics. But one also wonders how much playing left field is factoring into this regression at the plate.
It’s not crazy to think that the extra stress of playing out of position as opposed to first base or DH like 2020 could be effecting Smith’s approach at the plate. In the early part of the 2010s Lucas Duda famously had those issues before finally taking over at first base.
It could also be that between rain outs, snow outs and pandemic-related postponements, the lack of consistent playing time has hampered his abilities at the plate as it seems to have everyone else in the lineup. Perhaps with more consistent at-bats his pitch selection will improve, leading to better contact numbers.
Hopefully this is nothing more than one of the regular peaks and valleys that players go through in a season. Those slumps are always more magnified in the early part of the season. That being said, Smith’s pitch selection at the plate is something worth monitoring as the season progresses.
Joe Vasile is a play-by-play broadcaster for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders and Bucknell University, and the host of Secondary Lead, a baseball history podcast.
It took me a long time to accept Dom as a legit hitter, but I am now fully on board. In 2019 he started strong, began dropping with sporadic playing time, got hurt, and finished with the walk off HR to end the season. I felt his stats would have suffered had he continued to play and drop from his very hot start in 2019. Last year he hit very well despite being unclear where he would most play in the field. He is, at this point, a most dependable hitter with regards to getting barrel to the ball.
I was sure that Pete Alonso also suffered last year while he was being DHed. Once he was back in the field, his bat heated up, and the season ended too abruptly for his rightful stats to take hold. It is a credit to Dom that he is willing to accept his less-than-preferred defensive position, and he is a clear team asset.
Generally, this article would bear far more weight if it had waited a few more weeks. April 19 is early enough, but when paired with many missed games, it is essentially moot with regard to the long baseball season. All Mets hitters are more likely to improve in the coming weeks as games become regular and consistent at bats allow adjustments to be made.
Joe,
Good stuff, thanks for the interesting details. I can’t draw any conclusions from the handful of games so far this season, a start riddled by COVID, rainouts, cold weather, and short games. This especially applies to position players/hitters. I see Dom as a stud bat and a potentially serviceable LF given a little time. I was bugged that he sat game one. I would like to see him out in LF every single day, and getting his 4+ AB.
I’m not worried about Smith having the 1B/OF split that Duda had.
But the strikeouts are alarming. I wasn’t aware of the offspeed issues – thanks for pointing that out.
Early on we see correlation with Jeff McNeil’s success as he also is usually good against fastballs and breaking balls but not off speed pitches, but seeing a heavy diet of the off speed stuff. Hence, teams are throwing the Mets off speed pitches galore and the guys need to lay off them and get the #1’s.