Since the year 2000, the top offensive season by a shortstop with enough PA to qualify for the leaderboards was turned in by Alex Bregman, who posted a 169 wRC+. The top mark by a Mets shortstop came in 2011, when Jose Reyes notched a 142, which is tied for the 16th-best mark in the time period. Before he got hurt, Reyes had a 155 wRC+. Reyes was such a joy to watch that season and it just puts into perspective how terrific Bregman was in ’19 if he was that much better than pre-injury Reyes.
Meanwhile, the top offensive season by Francisco Lindor was a 132 wRC+ in 2018. That’s tied for the 38th-best mark in our time frame. The problem is that he hasn’t come close to that mark before or since. While he did post a 126 mark in 99 games as a rookie, his next-highest mark was the 116 he put up in 2017. Shortstops who put up 116 wRC+ don’t exactly grow on trees. They generally don’t get paid $300 million contracts, either.
Currently, Lindor has a 69 wRC+ but just about no one is worried about that since it has come in 48 sporadic PA. Last year Lindor had 266 PA and a 102 wRC+. That’s not an insignificant number of PA but it’s still less than half a season. In his last 466 PA of 2019, Lindor had a 106 wRC+. For those scoring at home, that comes out to in his last 780 PA, Lindor has a 102 wRC+. That’s a good number for a shortstop. In his Mets career of 1,564 PA, Amed Rosario had an 89 wRC+ – and he’s far from the worst offensive shortstop we’ve seen the Mets trot out there in this century.
It’s just that with the combination of what the Mets gave up to get Lindor, plus the contract they gave out to keep him, the expectation is that he’s going to be better than that. If Rosario was like eating a McDonald’s hamburger, the fact that Lindor is like a steak from Outback is not all that great when you’re paying Peter Luger Steak House prices.
While the Mets gave up Rosario in the deal to acquire Lindor, they also traded Andres Gimenez, too. Last year in his MLB debut, Gimenez put up a 104 wRC+ and this year he has a 122 mark. It’s a sample of all of 170 PA so take it with a giant grain of salt. But would it really be a surprise if over the next three years, Gimenez posted a triple-digit wRC+?
Of course, Lindor brings other things to the table. He’s a fantastic defensive shortstop, he’s not afraid of the spotlight and even after 11 games, it’s obvious how much he cares. It’s an underrated quality – the desire to be great. If you can make value judgments from your couch, you’d say that Lindor has it while maybe Rosario didn’t.
So then, where does Gimenez stand in this made-up category? Is his desire to be great closer to Rosario’s or Lindor’s? In one way, it doesn’t matter in the slightest, as Gimenez is no longer on the Mets. But if we look to evaluate the trade, we now have another piece of information that we didn’t have at the time – how much it would cost to retain Lindor. Which leaves the missing piece as what the players are likely to do going forward.
It’s far from the likely outcome but one path with a non-zero chance of happening is that Gimenez is a more productive offensive player than Lindor. A much-more likely scenario is that on a cost basis, Gimenez is the better player. Who would you rather have – Gimenez putting up a 105 wRC+ at minimum wage or Lindor putting up a 120 at 50X the cost? And does your answer change if Lindor is the 102 guy he’s been in his last 780 PA?
Dallas Green was likely the worst manager the Mets ever had. But he did have one great line. Paraphrasing here but Green said he always asked his players to look at themselves in the mirror. The only problem was that when Ryan Thompson did it, he thought he saw Willie Mays looking back at him.
My fear is that when Mets fans look at Lindor, they think they’re looking at 2002 vintage Alex Rodriguez.
Lindor is going to be a fun player to have on the Mets. My sincere hope is that he rips off a bunch of years that dwarf the production he had in 2018. But I wouldn’t wager on that outcome with your money, much less mine. No doubt, some of you are going to believe this is some giant over-reaction to what Lindor has done in a Mets uniform. Those people are hereby invited to read this column from December of 2020, before the Lindor-Gimenez trade even happened.
McDonald’s hamburger, Outback steak, Lugar prices! Good one, Brian!
They did get Carrasco too.
But I agree that they might have signed Odorizzi (terrible in his first two starts) and traded for Arenado (off to a decent start).
I appreciate this column for what it is… a measured look at a move that will impact the team for a decade.
I was very high on Gimenez… a man already at 22. Frankly, Cleveland made the better deal. They got a ten-year shortstop who hits line drives and can steal bases, with a very high defensive side. The fact that Rosario got thrown in gives them nice options.
Lindor’s offense worries me. You look at those gaudy home run totals and think that he has unusual power, but I just want line drives and good #2 hitter-contact and dependability. Defensively he has already shown his value.
Was he overpaid?… oh certainly. Stupid money. And I hope his pride in his game and his legacy will keep him working hard to stay productive offensively. The last thing he wants is to hear are those faint boos echoing in the stands at Citi Field. I’ll take .275/25/75 with 15 SBs if he anchors the defense.
I understand that Gimenez has a .500 slugging based on his two homeruns so far, and while I don’t know how the RC+ is derived, I’ve seen enough baseball in my life to figure out Lindor is the better player. Period. He is a legit 2/3 hitter, and Gimenez just isn’t. Gimenez’s OBP is .297 and while I hope the kid does well, you have to get a player that’s on a HOF trajectory – going into his prime – when you can. Gimenez will be a nice glove, speedy SS, and that does have value. But, we didn’t trade a young Reyes for Lindor, we traded a useful MLB player to try to get one of the best players at his position.
As for the Betts contract compared to Lindor’s, I agree that the Mets overpaid some, but hopefully it doesn’t turn out to be too much. They kind of didn’t have a choice from a PR point of view.
For what it’s worth, I believe Andres G. will be a star, certainly equal to Correa, Bogartz, and other current stars and should reach the best SS in the game status. His hitting is potentially elite, his fielding solid, but his field leadership truly has big time potential. As I said, he’s “a man” in his makeup, maturity, toughness. A lead-by-example type…
I dont know, the Mets are 11 games into a season that has no comparison. I think we all need to take a pill on everyone’s metrics so far.
And sitting behind is Muricio who is on a higher ceiling and higher floor than Rosario or Gimenez.
Maybe worth thinking this all out after at least 1 season of data in a Mets uni.
Chris,
Agree 100%…sample size is ridiculously small, and with the crazy start to 2021, completely meaningless. That said, Uncle Stevie just may have tossed and turned a tad recently.
Also, I find Bergman’s 169 tainted, significantly.
I’ll warrant that much of the doubt expressed here about Lindor results from years of suffering from “Battered Fans Syndrome” under the yoke of The Coupons.
Personally, I, myself, am not at all worried about Lindor, who I assert is the premier SS in BB.
On a different note, has anyone else noticed that JdG, on the strength of his 4 for 7, is currently batting .571?
Note: “Personally, I, myself” was chosen specifically for its double-redundancy
Waiting to see how it plays out with Carrasco but I’m optimistic he gives us 2 good years as a 2/3 and helps anchor the playoff rotation. His inclusion is really what made the trade fair value.
As for the contract – I didn’t think he was worth that much, I thought the original offer was fair. But it aint my money and I’ve been far more impressed with his speed and defense than I anticipated. The defense in particular – he’s so smooth, gets to balls the other two never would have, and plays with a confidence that can’t be taught. He’ll be the least of our problems for the next decade.
Getting Carrasco in this trade tipped the scale favoritely for the Mets. That is why it was a good trade. They got a much needed quality starting pitcher in Carrasco.
Yes, it is unrealistic to expect vintage prime Alex Rodriguez production from Lindor but it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a 5+ WAR because of his salary. Generally a player that has a $300M contract has more production but apparently there is a new market scale for shortstops. Lindor and Carrasco give the Mets a better chance of winning a championship than Rosario and Gimenez.
Two thoughts:
1. If Lindor is going to put up a sub 110 wRC+ it’s going to be really tough for him to put up 5+ WAR seasons. It puts a ton of pressure on him to retain his elite defense with no slippage.
2. If they didn’t sink money into Lindor & Carrasco – they would have spent elsewhere. I don’t think its fair to say that Lindor/Carrasco > Rosario/Gimenez. I think the better question is if Lindor/Carrasco is better than Rosario/Gimenez/Bauer
Lindor got paid a fortune, but that’s the market for top players at their positions. Lindor is a top defender with excellent offensive production for a SS. Only Carlos Correa offers a similar blend of offense and defense.
Looking at NL East SS, Lindor is career 117 OPS+, Turner (WAS) 117, Gregorius (PHI) 100, Rojas (MIA) 86, and Swanson (ATL) 86.
Of free agents next year, Baez is 102, Story 113, Correa 126, and Seager 130. Among those available next year, only Baez is a Gold Glove winner like Lindor while Correa also rates as an excellent defender based on dWAR on B-R. Correa will get paid similarly to Lindor. Given the options, the Lindor signing makes sense while also getting Carrasco in the trade. Better to take Lindor in his prime than a risk on Gimenez panning out. Remember Dansby Swanson was a 1st round pick out of Vanderbilt. You never know how a young player will develop in the major leagues.