Jacob deGrom’s terrific start to 2021 has sparked a lot of talk about comparisons to Tom Seaver, long considered to be the best player in Mets history. The greybeards don’t want to hear it but this argument is over. Despite the advantages that Seaver enjoyed throughout his career, deGrom has surpassed him on a quality basis. Seaver still holds a quantity edge but deGrom cuts into that each time he takes the mound.
So, what advantages did Seaver enjoy? He pitched at the tail end of the greatest pitching era since World War II, getting to pitch off high mounds in 1967 and 1968. If you ever get a chance to see the mound in, say, San Francisco in the 1960s – you wouldn’t believe how high that thing is. Seaver also got to pitch against expansion clubs in the pre-free agency days. Just like Sandy Koufax got to fatten his record against the expansion Mets and Astros, Seaver got to face the Expos and Padres. That 10-consecutive-strikeout game that was just in the news recently? It came against the second-year Padres. From 1969-1975, Seaver was 18-1 with a 1.57 ERA against San Diego.
Furthermore, Seaver, while on the Mets, never had to face a designated hitter while deGrom did all of last year and in all interleague games in AL parks prior to that. Seaver had 1,186 PA against pitchers and limited them to a .308 OPS. Mets managers – and really just about all teams in that era – put in defensive-first catchers for Seaver. deGrom had to request to pitch to someone besides Wilson Ramos. Seaver got to regularly face lineups with multiple dead spots in the order, because managers of the time thought the way to win was to play good-field, no-hit guys up the middle.
The 1970 Chicago Cubs, a team that won 84 games, had Randy Hundley (63 OPS+), Glenn Beckert (73), Don Kessinger (77) and Cleo James (60) playing up the middle. Do you think deGrom ever faced a lineup that weak? And it’s not like the Cubs were some anomaly. Check out the lineups the Braves, Expos, Padres and Phillies – and sadly, the Mets – were putting out back then.
The counter is that Seaver pitched many more innings. And that’s a product of his era. If Seaver pitched in the 21st Century, he wouldn’t have a season with 21 complete games and if you think he would, well, you’re kidding yourself. Now, those extra innings are real and they absolutely count in his record. But compare them to their contemporaries. deGrom finished 5th, 2nd and 3rd in the NL in innings from 2017-19 and currently is fourth this season. Seaver, while regularly in the top 10, never finished higher than third in the league in innings.
Let’s continue with comparing these two to their contemporaries. When Seaver put up a 2.20 ERA in 1968, he finished seventh in the NL. When deGrom put up a 2.54 ERA in 2015, he finished fourth in the league. So much has been made about how the two were tied in ERA as Mets until recently, when deGrom pulled ahead. But that completely ignored that Seaver pitched in a much more pitcher-friendly era.
If you look at ERA+, which adjusts for run-scoring environment and home park, as well as working around the innings/era issue, deGrom is comfortably ahead. Seaver’s ERA+ as a Met was 136, which is a really good mark. Meanwhile, deGrom has a 153 ERA+ which is one of the greatest marks of all time. It’s true that deGrom hasn’t entered his decline phase yet and it’s likely his mark will fall from where it is now. But it’s not like Seaver pitched much of his decline phase with the Mets, having just one season after age 32 with New York.
It’s tough to judge greatness. Some prefer longevity while others argue for peak. Let’s try to combine those two. Let’s look at an extended peak. Instead of looking at a three-year or five-year stretch of dominance, let’s set the bar at seven consecutive years. Steve Carlton had six years with an ERA+ of 150 or more but they came from 1965-1981. There was a lot of good years sprinkled in there with the great.
Seaver’s best seven consecutive years for ERA+ was 1969-1975, when he put up a 146. But that doesn’t crack the top 15 of all time. Here’s everyone with a 150 or greater mark:
| Pitcher | Years | ERA+ |
|---|---|---|
| Pedro Martinez | 1997-03 | 213 |
| Greg Maddux | 1992-98 | 190 |
| Walter Johnson | 1910-16 | 189 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2011-17 | 179 |
| Randy Johnson | 1996-02 | 175 |
| Mordecai Brown | 1904-10 | 168 |
| Lefty Grove | 1926-32 | 164 |
| Pete Alexander | 1914-20 | 162 |
| Christy Mathewson | 1907-13 | 161 |
| Kevin Brown | 1995-01 | 158 |
| Johan Santana | 2002-08 | 156 |
| Ed Walsh | 1906-12 | 155 |
| Hal Newhouser | 1942-48 | 155 |
| Cy Young | 1899-05 | 153 |
| Roy Halladay | 2005-11 | 152 |
| Jacob deGrom | 2014-20 | 150 |
This list was created by hand and while I think it’s complete, it’s certainly possible that someone is missing. Here are the players I checked:
Blyleven, Carlton, Clarkson, Cole, Coveleski, Dean, Feller, Ford, Gibson, Glavine, Gomez, Gooden, Hubbell, Jennings, Joss, Keefe, Koufax, Marichal, Mussina, Nichols, Palmer, Plank, Rusie, Ruth, Sale, Scherzer, Schilling, Seaver, Smoltz, Spahn, Sutton, Vance, Verlander, Waddell, Wood.
If you have someone you think might qualify – look them up at Baseball-Reference and let me know if they have a 150 or better mark over seven consecutive years. Please don’t just throw out a name and expect me to do it.
deGrom has a good chance to move up this list. His ERA+ in 2014 was 128 and if 2021 is anything like the last three years, he’ll replace that mark with one around 50 points higher. And if he can keep up this fantastic pitching through 2024, he might compete for a top-three spot. From 2018 through four starts in 2021, deGrom has a 199 ERA+
This list points out how great Martinez was from ’97-’03. His name doesn’t come up immediately when you talk about the best pitchers of the last 25 years, much less of all time. And that’s a real shame. We’re awestruck with what deGrom has done since 2018. Martinez was noticeably better over a stretch twice as long.
It’s time to move past Seaver and compare deGrom to Kershaw among contemporaries and Martinez for the best of all-time over an extended period. He’s behind both of those pitchers now but if he can continue at his current pace – a big if – he can gain ground. deGrom says he wants to be considered an inner circle Hall of Famer. These are the guys he’s chasing and here’s his chance to reach that goal.
Great article, Brian!
Half of the above list includes pitchers who played mainly before Jackie Robinson broke the “color line” in the majors, so, for me, we’re down to eight names.
Good reporting, Brian, and timely. It’s important to point out how special DeGrom is, and how we tend to become inured to greatness.
I’m glad to put the Seaver comparisons into perspective. He played for a bad franchise and elevated it single-handedly. In that respect, I’m afraid DeGrom has the same onus on him.
All that said, I’m getting tired of Gary Cohen extolling the feats and numbers for DeGrom for several innings every game. I’d much rather he stay tuned to the unfolding game before us and give his attention to the details. Like the fact that McNeil, Smith, Lindor, and Conforto are reeling. I mean, what’s up with Dom? Someone mentioned sleep apnea, and I believe it… he looks like a zombie at the plate.
It’s a long season, with only 10% completed. But if the Mets are going to rise to the expectations, they are going to have to address their defensive and offensive problems. They look like a .500 team to me, and that’s with HOF caliber DeGrom going every fifth day.
I tried Roger Clemens but he fell just a little short
I see he wasn’t in the alphabetical list but I did check Clemens. Also checked Jim Bunning.
Brian,
Great effort! I must confess that I have been wondering about this comp for some time, but I’m way too lazy to hash it out like you did.
Seaver was among the all-time greats and will always be “the franchise” based upon his timing. I heard them say today that even Doc says that outside of wins and complete games (a function of the era) Jake has him beat on everything else. We can only hope that he maintains this peak for a long time, and that the downside is gentle. At this point, Jake is clearly historical.
Now, I do agree with Wobbit…modern sports announcers are way over the top in individual “worship”, even for the greats. It’s not the player’s fault. Maybe I’m too long in the tooth, but the game is always more important that the individual. We all know how good JDG is, and Brady, and LeBron, etc., it does get old, even as a fan of the team the guy is on. Jake’s low key style despite his dominance makes me glad they didn’t sign Bauer.
Glad to see ERA+ as the comparison; my favorite stat for pitchers. In deGrom’s last start, Gary Cohen noted that he just passed Seaver’s 2.57 ERA. But, as you note, that’s not a fair comparison given the run-scoring environments in which each pitched. ERA+ puts Pedro as the all-time great starter, just behind Kershaw who I think eventually will fall behind him due to the decline phase.
deGrom needs 7 more good years to make the Hall. He just said he wants to pitch into his 40s like Randy Johnson (and Clemens). Let’s hope he does so in a Mets uniform. Just for fun, using ERA+ with more than 10 years, the all-time best rotation is Kershaw, Pedro, Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, and Randy Johnson. I’d like to see deGrom crack into that list, but he has many more years to get there.
Thanks for doing the more-than-10-year list.
And to be sure – there’s nothing magical about 7 years. Just felt like it gave a shot to guys like Santana and Koufax who weren’t able to have a long career.
Great work, Brian. I tried Kluber, but he had a shorter run than I realized – 5 great years +1 pretty good one sandwiched by a rough rookie year and the recent injury-riddled seasons. Interesting note for pitchers with HOF aspirations – 3+ Cy Young Awards seems to be a guarantee – Johnson, Maddux, Carlton, Seaver, Koufax, Martinez, Palmer, plus Kershaw and Scherzer, who are locks. The only one not in the Hall with 3+ is Clemens. Meanwhile, half the pitchers that finished their careers with two Cy Young Awards never made it. In are Gibson, Glavine, Halladay, and Perry. Out are Lincecum, McLain, Saberhagen, Santana, and Kluber, who technically still has a shot. I believe that if deGrom wins one more this year or next, he won’t even have to win 100 games, let alone pitch til he’s 40 to punch his ticket.