The Mets have great pitching, which isn’t really that big of a surprise. But that they’ve been this good with three of their top seven pitchers yet to appear in a game is something that hasn’t gotten enough attention, in my opinion. The Mets are second in MLB in staff ERA, trailing only the Padres, and they lead the majors in both FIP and xFIP, suggesting that their results aren’t being achieved with smoke and mirrors.
Furthermore, they’ve done this playing nine games against the top four run-scoring teams in the NL and two more against the top team in the AL. The Mets have played nine games against the Phillies and have held them to 34 runs, an average of 3.8 runs per games. Against the rest of the teams the Phillies have played, they average 4.3 runs per game. The Phillies are 3-6 against the Mets and 15-9 against the rest of their schedule.
The Mets have the 28th-ranked offense with an average of 3.46 runs per game, just 0.02 points above the Pirates, who are six games under .500, while the Mets are two games over that mark. Their poor offense is one of the major reasons the club dismissed their two major league hitting coaches. It should be pointed out that those two coaches were hired by Brodie Van Wagenen and their philosophy didn’t exactly mesh with what Sandy Alderson preferred.
But if it was fair to blame the hitting coaches, shouldn’t the pitching coaches get some credit here, especially with the arms who are missing? Jeremy Hefner is the Mets’ pitching coach and he, too, was brought in by Van Wagenen. But while Chili Davis advocated for an approach that flies in the face of modern offensive theory, Hefner fully embraces all of the 21st Century analytics and could easily be considered one of the leaders in implementing them, first with the Twins and now with the Mets.
Unlike in 2020, Hefner has had a more-normal year working hands on with his pitchers and it’s hard to argue with the results. Sure, he has a built-in advantage working with the best pitcher in baseball but the early results staff-wide are overwhlemingly positive. Here are the ERA, WHIP and OPS allowed for the top-12 pitchers in innings for the club, with the first numbers being lifetime marks before this season, followed by 2021 numbers:
| Player | ERA | WHIP | OPS | 21 ERA | 21 WHIP | 21 OPS | 21 ERA+ | 21 OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 2.61 | 1.047 | .603 | 0.51 | 0.571 | .434 | 759 | 24 |
| Marcus Stroman | 3.76 | 1.292 | .701 | 2.12 | 1.029 | .564 | 184 | 65 |
| Taijuan Walker | 3.84 | 1.246 | .720 | 2.38 | 1.029 | .497 | 164 | 47 |
| David Peterson | 3.44 | 1.208 | .644 | 5.54 | 1.385 | .794 | 71 | 130 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 4.21 | 1.280 | .738 | 7.71 | 1.429 | .929 | 51 | 163 |
| Edwin Diaz | 3.18 | 1.114 | .629 | 3.55 | 1.263 | .667 | 112 | 94 |
| Trevor May | 4.44 | 1.304 | .731 | 1.46 | 0.973 | .467 | 273 | 38 |
| Miguel Castro | 4.29 | 1.431 | .741 | 3.00 | 1.333 | .627 | 133 | 84 |
| Robert Gsellman | 4.67 | 1.422 | .767 | 3.27 | 1.182 | .585 | 122 | 70 |
| Jeurys Familia | 3.20 | 1.297 | .638 | 0.93 | 1.552 | .666 | 431 | 96 |
| Jacob Barnes | 4.36 | 1.389 | .709 | 5.00 | 1.111 | .680 | 81 | 95 |
| Aaron Loup | 3.38 | 1.236 | .700 | 1.04 | 1.038 | .594 | 388 | 75 |
To state the obvious, all 2021 numbers are small samples, especially for relievers. What looks to be outstanding numbers can turn around instantly with one bad outing. With that out of the way, we see that eight of our 12 pitchers have a better ERA, WHIP and OPS allowed this season, although not the same eight in each category. Familia has a better ERA this year but is underperforming his lifetime WHIP and OPS allowed. Barnes has a better lifetime ERA but this year is posting superior WHIP and OPS allowed numbers.
Familia is an interesting case. BoomBoom has pointed out the soft nature of the hits allowed by Familia and he absolutely has been victimized by bleeders and bloops. But the flip side of that is that StatCast shows his HardHit% nearly identical this year (30.0) to last season (30.7) so what happens when the bleeders are hit to fielders and the hard-hit balls aren’t? Meanwhile, Barnes got beat up in his second appearance of the season but in six appearances since, his line is: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 Ks
We can debate if the improved performance is due to Hefner or small samples or the offensive environment of early 2021. To address the latter, the last two columns of the chart are to provide seasonal context. We see Peterson and Lucchesi struggling and those are two pitchers who figure to have their workload decrease once Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard return from the IL. Otherwise, nine of the 10 pitchers are better than league average in ERA+ and all 10 are better in OPS+.
In 2019, when they won 86 games, the Mets had only two relievers with at least 30 IP and a 100 or better ERA+. They might have seven this season.
The Mets prioritized getting May this year, signing him on December 2, earlier than any other of their free agents, including short-lived GM Jarred Porter. Hefner clearly had a big role here, as he coached May in Minnesota. And May has been everything the club could have hoped for, as he’s handled the late-inning role like a boss, with eye-popping numbers across the board.
Castro had tantalized three organizations with his stuff but none of them had been able to harness it. Barnes, too, had been with three other orgs with poor results prior to this year. While Barnes’ ERA so far is not good, it seems we should put more emphasis on his WHIP and OPS allowed, given how much of the damage was done in a single outing. And Gsellman was a serious non-tender candidate this past offseason. While he may get pushed out of a job when the injured pitchers return, to get anything positive from him this year has to be counted as a win.
Again, it’s early and it’s a lot easier to put up good numbers in five weeks than it is to do the same over six months. But we should recognize the players who are performing above expectations and be aware that the investment in infrastructure, up to and including the coaches, seems to be paying off here in the early going. Barnes, Castro, Familia, Gsellman, Loup, May, Stroman and Walker are all putting up numbers beyond what we might have expected coming into 2021. Credit to them for the work they’ve put in.
But let’s also credit the organization some here, too. Five of those eight guys were brought in within the past 12 months and if two others had been cut before the season started – no one would have shed a tear. And even Stroman, who the org stepped up and gave him the QO, has improved his output. He’s produced numbers far superior in his first six starts this year compared to his final six starts in 2019, when he last pitched. And those last six starts were his best ones as a Met, as he really struggled in his first five games after the trade. Here are his numbers as a Met:
First 5 – 4.91 ERA, .898 OPS
Next 6 – 2.91 ERA, .688 OPS
2021 (6) – 2.12 ERA, .564 OPS
Now if only the hitters would follow suit.
Very nice piece with good info regarding the Mets pitching staff as a whole. In regard to their offense, although anemic, they have plenty of base runners to cash in and their problem is execution and not shortening swings with two strikes.
Back to the article, Hefner seemed very well regarded with the Twins as well. He was hired as a coach but must have impressed rather quickly as they made him a MLB assistant pitching coach within two years. Seems like he processes very quickly and can pass this info to his pitchers.
Nice article… fair and balanced… great info.
I’d like to see one less pitcher on the roster and one more bench player added. I get worried when the second catcher gets inserted and none are left in reserve, for example.
I’m glad to hear others, including G-R-K, extolling the virtues of Tomas Nido. I think he deserves to play at least 40% of the games.
I agree on all points Wobbit.
Mazeika is the 3rd catcher
About the Mets’ hitting: I was just looking at the box score of today’s game v Diamondbacks on ESPN. JdG has the highest BA amongst the the 9 batters at 0.462. Next highest is Alonso at 0.260. The rest range from 0.188 to 0.233
Brian,
Another awesome Sunday piece, so thanks. Not much more to add, except that anecdotally it appears that pitching is dominating hitting this season, with 4 (or 5) no hitters already and some other dominant stats too.
Also, for what it’s worth (not much), Chasen Shreve has yet to throw in the bigs this season. Lastly, I haven’t seen that the Mets even mention Betances in the injury status reports.
It’s such a weird dynamic. Generally speaking, pitchers are dominating and the only way batters can cope is to swing for the fences.
Now, a lot of people view this as a chicken-and-the-egg thing. They believe that if batters stopped swinging for the fences, then pitchers would stop dominating.
My guess is that the solution – if you want a solution from outside the lines (which may or may not be a good thing) – is that you’ll have to do a multi-prong approach. You’ll have to do something like deaden the ball + move the mound back.
That’s a lot of tinkering, something that wouldn’t be my first choice. I’d like to see if the players can find their own equilibrium.
Personally, I’m okay with a game that has a lot of three true outcomes. But something needs to be done about length of games/pace of play. Everyone points to a pitch clock but I don’t believe batters should be let off the hook here. Ban batting gloves or make it illegal to adjust them. And James McCann makes me think we should do something about adjust cups, too. He touches his crotch more frequently than a 90s rapper.
Brian, any thoughts on why the Mets don’t use deGrom as a pinch-hitter instead of Peraza or Almora?
We were so used to seeing Davey Johnson do thinks like using Ron Darling as a pinch-runner that it’s easy to lose sight of the face that managers avoid risk whenever possible. Can you imagine the outcry if deGrom was used as a pinch-hitter and then got drilled with a pitch, broke his wrist and missed the rest of the year.
Now, you can say this is a remote possibility, and one that shouldn’t drive decisions. But is it any more remote than your starting catcher getting injured and having to leave the game? That just about never happens yet managers refuse to use their backup catcher as a pinch-hitter unless it’s absolutely necessary. Just another example of acute risk-avoidance.
And Almora can’t hit. He might still be valuable for his glove but we need to move away from these balsa-wood bat guys. It’s good that we don’t have them in the starting lineup anymore. Next is to eliminate them from the bench.
Almora is a good defensive centerfielder but he isn’t contributing offense and it is glaring because of the four man bench. When Nimmo and Davis get back the bench will be fortified with Villar and Pillar. Almora is a luxury because Pillar can sub for Smith for a late inning defensive replacement. The Mets should keep an eye open for a veteran offensive player on waivers for the bench.
Thanks, Brian.
It is a small sample size and the 4th and 5th starters are not meeting expectations. The the 1-2-3 starters are exceeding expectations. The bullpen has nine members with a ERA+ of over 100 and their work load is evenly distributed. The pitching is why they are in first place and Hefner should get credit for that.
I am honored to have received a call out in the article. That made my day. It really is uncanny though with Familia this season. Nearly Every outing.
Every team in the division is being hurt by injuries. Mets lose Carrasco, Lugo, Syndergaard, Guillorme, Davis, Nimmo, and now, hopefully to a lesser extent, deGrom. The division may well be determined by team depth, especially in the pitching staffs.
I still believe Peterson will pull his weight. Bullpen games may play important role through June, when we might get some starters back… but it may get thinner than we thought possible. We need Taijuan and Marcus to hold up. DeGrom may need to pitch in the high 90’s and mix his pitches more to avoid his “right side tightness” to continue.