Please use this thread to comment on any Mets-specific topic you wish.
Nothing is as demoralizing as a bad bullpen, especially one that blows leads in the eighth and ninth innings, which is why so many people value closers so highly. But even though they are only pitching, for the most part, an inning at a time – closers don’t have tremendously long shelf lives. In the three-year period from 2017-19, 33 pitchers recorded 30 saves in a season, with 23 pitchers doing it at least once. If you’re any good at math, you realize that means not many could have saved 30 all three years. In fact, only one pitcher did it – Kenley Jansen. On the flip side, 14 pitchers posted just a single 30-save season.
Raise your hand if you thought Jake McGee, Ian Kennedy and Cesar Valdez would be in the top five in saves in the middle of May.
Those three players are all on the wrong side of 30 and chances are none of them will rip off three straight seasons of 30 or more saves, or essentially what we would expect from a full-time closer. So, how do you balance that closers are important yet likely more volatile – and fungible – than any other position?
The Mets decided to bring in a young guy coming off a great season, figuring he would likely solidify the spot for multiple years. To get Edwin Diaz prior to the 2019 season, the Mets gave up a package that included two former first-round picks, in addition to taking on an albatross contract. Now, the GM who made the trade thought that they were filling a “primary need” with the albatross contract. Whatever. At the end of the day, they paid a big price to get their top option at closer.
Now, the closer started off ok in 2019 and then fell apart. Diaz did very good in 2020 but of course that wasn’t a full season. And he’s off to a solid start here in 2021.
Meanwhile, Justin Dunn has a 114 ERA+ in five starts this year and Jarred Kelenic is getting ready to make his MLB debut, after being considered one of the top five prospects in MLB.
Up to this second, from a strict performance standpoint, the trade has been a slight win for the Mets. If you consider salary considerations, the Mets have paid roughly $27 million – after accounting for the money that Seattle sent them – in 2019-20 and received 3.0 fWAR. That’s not a good return on investment.
It’s possible that by the end of the 2021 season, the Mariners will have received more production than the Mets from this trade. Certainly, the expectation is that they will take the lead no later than 2022.
But, the Mets made this trade knowing full well that they would likely lose it from both a production and financial POV. Their path to winning the deal was for Diaz and possibly the drug cheat to lead them to a World Series. Flags fly forever, you know.
Diaz is tied for fourth among pitchers on the Mets in fWAR. That’s not bad for a reliever. But is it enough? Someone asked me – Chris F? – at the time of the deal if I thought it would be a good trade if the Mets won the World Series with Diaz and the albatross. And my response was something along the lines of – it would depend if those two combined for 10 fWAR or 2 fWAR. It doesn’t look like the Mets will win the Series anytime that duo is in Queens with the two of them combining for 5 fWAR, much less 10.
Kelenic is expected to get the call on Thursday.
The Mets are going to have some decisions to make when everyone comes back from the IL. Lee and Mazeika seem like easy choices but the rest not so much. I like Peraza but can they have a bench with three infielders – Guillorme, Villar and Peraza? Peraza doesn’t have as much good hitting to his name as I thought – basically just 2018. The Mets will probably choose Almora over Peraza but I’m not convinced that’s the right move to make.
The pitching decisions will be even harder.
Let’s assume they carry 13 pitchers.
SP – deGrom, Stroman, Walker, Carrasco, Syndergaard
RP – Diaz, May, Castro, Loup, Familia, Lugo and then a dogfight among seven guys for the last two spots.
If forced to pick right now, I’d probably go Barnes and Peterson. But Gsellman lives a charmed life, they seem to really like Drew Smith, Lucchessi would give them another lefty and both SRF and Hunter give them a long man.
If they ever get back to full strength, it will be a good team.
Brian,
It’s been a long time since the Mets have had this type of problem, both with position players and with pitchers. It’s tough for some players but it is a good problem as an organization. If a decision is close, as much as possible I think they will try to stash a couple of guys that they can still control, even if those players are more deserving to stay…and I’m sure they are having visions of cutting a guy that the Braves then pick up and who kills the Mets down the stretch.
In the NL it is better to have a five player bench because of pinch hitting for the pitcher. Peraza should stay because he is a better hitter than Almora. Pillar can be the late innings defensive replacement for Smith. McNeil and Peraza can play leftfield so they aren’t short in outfielders. What would be ideal is having a power threat on the bench. Martinez would have fit the need but he is injured.
Hunter is now asset and they would lose him if he is DFA. Use him until he isn’t an asset. The eighth spot should be filled in with the Syracuse Shuttle comprising of Gsellman, Barnes, Reid-Foley and Smith. They all have options. Peterson, Lucchesi and Yamamoto will stay stretched up in the Syracuse rotation. They all have options too.
This is a deep, solid team.