Taijuan Walker’s fast start, the combustible Joey Lucchesi and the team’s performance vs LHP

The Mets desperately needed to add starting pitching in the offseason. They extended the QO to Marcus Stroman and he accepted. They traded for Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi. But everyone expected the Mets to grab a free agent pitcher from another team and throughout the offseason, they were linked to just about anyone with a pulse, including Trevor Bauer, the reigning CY Award winner. They finally signed Taijuan Walker on February 20. And Walker has been terrific.

MLBTR ranked the free agent pitchers and had seven hurlers in their “Cream of the Crop” section and Walker was not one of them. Instead, he was in the “Upside Aplenty” section. It’s understandable why Walker wasn’t in the first category. His career, mostly due to injury, had neither a standout season nor an extended run of above-average pitching, like many of the other free agents available had to hang their hat on.

So many times, we hear the phrase “upside,” and the player never reaches the alleged ceiling. But not only has Walker reached expectations, he’s shattered them. How many people imagined that Walker would have a 2.20 ERA after seven games? His fastball velocity has ticked up and he throws three above-average pitchers with his fastball, slider and – depending on which source you check – either a two-seamer or splitter.

While things have been great so far with Walker, there are warning signs. He has a worrisome 3.95 BB/9, his BABIP sits at a paltry .221 and he has a microscopic 2.8 HR/FB rate. All of those things add up to a 4.12 xFIP, which is more in line with the fourth starter that many expected him to be. One more thing that maybe should raise some eyes is that Walker has a 27.9 LD%, the highest among starting pitchers on the club. Line drives are the type of batted ball most likely to end up a base hit.

Whether Walker’s good pitching is sustainable or merely a short-sample fluke, it’s come at a good time. It’s helped the club withstand the losses of Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard and if those two pitchers come back at a reasonable facsimile of their earlier selves, Walker slides into the team’s fifth starter, where he would be a great weapon.

THE ILLAR TWINS STEP UP WITH INCREASED PLAYING TIME – The Mets made it a priority to have greater depth on the team this year. One thing they did in the offseason was to sign veterans who weren’t in the twilight of their careers to be bench players. Two of those guys were 32-year-old Kevin Pillar and 30-year-old Jonathan Villar. Neither of these players got off to strong starts. But injuries have given them both consistent playing time here lately and they both have produced.

In the last 14 days, Pillar has an .871 OPS and he leads the team with seven RBIs. Villar has a .770 OPS and leads the team with three stolen bases. The hits are falling in for Pillar but he’s also hitting for power, with a .531 SLG. Villar has a normal .298 BABIP but where he’s really excelling is getting on base, as he’s drawn 9 BB in 50 PA, which has led to a .380 OBP. It will be curious to see how Luis Rojas divvies up playing time to these two once the regulars return from the IL.

LEFTY SWAP DOESN’T WORK – This offseason, the Mets essentially swapped Steven Matz for Lucchesi. Both players had similar story arcs, as they were both league-average pitchers in 2018-19 before falling on hard times in 2020. So far here in 2021, Matz has returned to a league-average hurler, as he has a 97 ERA+ after eight starts. Meanwhile, Lucchesi has put up results even worse than he did in 2020. After yesterday’s disaster, Lucchesi sports a 9.19 ERA, which translates to a 43 ERA+.

And if it’s possible, he’s been even worse than that. Lucchesi began the year in the bullpen and in his first appearance he delivered two scoreless innings. Since then, he’s allowed 17 R in 13.2 IP and while put in a role to pitch as long as he can – whether as a starter or a bulk guy – he’s yet to exceed 3.1 IP in an outing. It’s been ugly and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise.

WHY WE KEEP TRACK OF THINGS – It’s impossible to remember everything that happens in a game over the course of the season, even if the season is just one-quarter complete. That’s why you should roll your eyes whenever someone uses “the eye test” as their primary means of evaluating players. Lately, Gary Cohen has been gushing about the defensive performance of Michael Conforto, who has made some good plays, both with the glove and with his arm. But you can’t just look at the plays being made and ignore the plays that were not.

Conforto has a .966 fielding percentage, which ranks 15th out of 17 right fielders who qualify for the leaderboards. But fielding percentage is far from the best way to measure defense. Conforto has a 0 DRS, which means the system considers him an average defensive player. He ranks tied for eighth among our 17 right fielders. UZR isn’t so kind, as it has him with a (-2.0) mark, which places 16th in our 17-player group. And Statcast’s OAA metric has him at 0 – again placing him as league-average at the position.

We were told when Conforto reached the majors that he was not a good defensive player. He’s turned out to be better than that and we should count that as a win. But he’s not a good defensive player no matter how you slice it by any objective measure.

OFFENSE SURPRISES WITH PERFORMANCE VERSUS LHP – With their lefty-heavy lineup, many thought that the Mets would struggle when they faced LHP this year. But the club has a .663 OPS versus righties and a .731 mark versus lefties so far this season. Pete Alonso (.889 OPS) and Francisco Lindor (.887) are doing the bulk of the damage versus LHP, while J.D. Davis and Jose Peraza have excelled in small samples. But the Mets’ lefties are doing quite well, thank you.

Brandon Nimmo (.988), Jeff McNeil (.889) and Dominic Smith (.817) have all done very well against southpaws when they’ve gotten to face them. Of course, those three have all sat for a lefty, including Smith on Opening Day. Conforto’s been in there for 32 of the Mets’ 33 games (he sat in the second game of a doubleheader when Aaron Nola got the start) and has a .652 OPS versus portsiders. Lifetime, Conforto has a .717 mark against LHP. Smith has a career mark of .754 versus southpaws, Nimmo has a .768 OPS and McNeil has an .804 mark – which makes you wonder how Conforto is the one who never sits when a lefty starts a game.