Everyone knows that the Mets have struggled offensively at the start of the 2021 season. The NL has an average runs per game of 4.33 and the Mets have a mark of just 3.73, which ranks 14th in the 15-team league. There are multiple reasons why, ranging from the slow starts for most of the team’s hitters, the numerous injuries and the failure to deliver run-scoring hits with runners in scoring position.
But things are getting better, as several hitters are staring to get untracked. In the last 14 days, the Mets have a team .721 OPS, which is 43 points higher than their season average. They’ve scored 49 runs in 11 games, which is a 4.45 rpg, slightly above league average. The feeling has been that if the Mets could just get league average run support, their pitching would carry that to a bunch of wins. Then the pitching allows 12 runs in the last two days and you wonder if the bullpen can keep up its great pace going forward.
The Mets are going to have to win some games with offense. Wednesday was an excellent example of that. You can’t win a game 3-1 if your starter lets up five runs in the first inning. And right now the Mets have giant question marks with two spots in the rotation, a situation that likely won’t change for at least six weeks.
Let’s take a look at the hitters, specifically how they’ve done the past two weeks:
Jonathan Villar – .783 OPS in 47 PA
Francisco Lindor – .720 OPS in 47 PA
Dominic Smith – .871 OPS in 40 PA
James McCann – 1.055 OPS in 37 PA
Jose Peraza – .636 OPS in 32 PA
Cameron Maybin – .249 OPS in 29 PA
Tomas Nido – .538 OPS in 26 PA
Brandon Drury – .836 OPS in 21 PA
Billy McKinney – 882 OPS in 20 PA
Pete Alonso – 1.044 OPS in 14 PA
With Kevin Pillar replacing Maybin and Alonso essentially replacing Nido, the Mets have significantly cut the sinkholes from the lineup. If we look at an even smaller time frame, the last seven days, the Mets have an .864 OPS as a team, which is the best mark in the National League. Let’s have some fun with selective end points and see how some of the hitters are doing here lately:
Lindor – batting .391 (9-23) in his last five games, with 3 XBH
McCann – in his last 19 PA has a .500/.526/1.000 triple slash line
Smith – An .840 OPS in his last 19 games
The three guys listed above are the ones who’ve avoided the IL. But while they were in the lineup, they weren’t producing as expected, at least not until the last week or so. Smith is coming out of a prolonged power slump, as he’s produced two doubles and a homer in his last three games. From 4/13-5/29, Smith had an .031 ISO, with just four extra-base hits – all doubles – in 143 PA. If these three hitters, along with Alonso, can keep producing like they have the past 2-3 years, the offense won’t be hanging around the Pirates for much longer.
Now the real test comes, as the Mets face the Padres seven times and the Cubs four times in the next 13 games. The Padres lead the NL in runs allowed, with a 3.39 rpg average. The Cubs are sixth in the league and they held the Mets to eight runs in three games earlier in the year, with Chicago winning all three games.
Are the hitters ready to face better pitchers? It’s one thing to feast on the Diamondbacks’ staff and another for the type of hurlers they’ll be facing the next two weeks. The Mets currently enjoy a 4.5 game lead on both the Phillies and Braves. If they can maintain that lead thru the middle of June, they’ll be in excellent shape. After that, they play 16 straight division games.
San Diego is a better team on paper than the Mets at this point of the season. Their regular starting lineup has 6 players with a 112+ OPS+, 3 starting pitchers with a 170+ ERA+ and 7 relievers with a 134+ ERA+. They are a formidable opponent. Winning the seven game series would be an accomplishment but winning three games nice.
The Mets are a better team than Chicago because of the pitching. The Cubs have only one better average starting pitcher, Alzolay, with a 106 ERA+. The Mets should pounce on the Cubs starting pitchers otherwise they will faced an excellent bullpen that features 8 relievers with a 125+ ERA+. A split would be the minimal and 3 wins would be nice.
A split vs Baltimore is mandatory but a sweep is expected.
So a 6-7 record would probably keep them in first place when they face their division.
Much like the Mets have been hitting better lately, the Cubs have been pitching better. In the last two weeks, the Cubs have a staff ERA of 1.54 with a 1.009 WHIP in 117 IP. They are 11-2 in that span.