The Mets need David Peterson to be solid, more or less league average, and, well, he isn’t. Coming into the year, the hope was that eight pitchers would make the overwhelming number of starts for the team. The problem is that three of those are on the IL and Peterson has to take a turn in the rotation every five days. And you just have no idea what you’re going to get from him start to start.
Peterson has made 10 starts this year and four of them have been above average, two have been more or less average and four have been rotten. And what really hurts is that after being a near automatic to give enough innings not to kill the bullpen in 2020, Peterson has had three starts this season where he hasn’t lasted more than 10 outs. In his last appearance, he recorded just one out and gave up five runs.
With the Mets’ fifth spot being held together with duct tape and spit, the last thing they can handle are early exits from their fourth starter. But that’s what they’re getting 30% of the time from Peterson. You’ve heard rumblings about the team promoting Thomas Szapucki but, quite frankly, he hasn’t pitched well enough to give much hope he’d be any better than Peterson right now. Now, the Mets may very well call up Szapucki soon, to help handle a double header start, but it won’t be as a replacement for Peterson.
One of Peterson’s issues is walks and Szapucki has allowed 10 BB in 17 IP at Triple-A.
Last year, Peterson had a strong ERA but his peripherals painted a different picture. While he had a 3.44 ERA, he had a 4.52 FIP and a 5.11 xFIP. As you probably know, FIP is an ERA estimator using strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed – things viewed as being in the pitcher’s control, or at least not dependent on fielders. xFIP normalizes HR rate, giving every pitcher a league average HR/FB rate.
Essentially, we’re trying to determine what’s skill versus what’s luck/good fortune. Peterson’s 2020 ERA featured some good fortune. Now, people use what they’re comfortable with and lots of folks don’t like to go past ERA. So, when confronted with evidence that maybe he wasn’t as good as his ERA was suggesting, they fell back to narrative to explain things. We heard how Peterson was poised on the mound, which was the explanation for why his results were so good.
Now, when the good fortune has dried up, you don’t hear so much about Peterson’s poise. Now that the league has a normal .300 BABIP against him and his strand rate isn’t elevated to the tune of a 76.8% mark, we’re seeing an ugly ERA. Right now, Peterson checks in with a 5.89 ERA, one he’s pretty much earned, as he has a 5.12 FIP. Maybe he hasn’t been that bad – but he’s been bad.
If you want to hold out some hope, Peterson has a 3.69 xFIP, which shows you how much he’s getting hurt by the gopher ball. In 44.1 IP, he’s allowed 9 HR. It’s next to impossible to succeed with a 1.83 HR/9. Peterson’s 4.06 BB/9 is an issue, a big problem. But that HR rate will end your career if you don’t get it under control.
In the 2017-2019 period, only five pitchers who qualified for the leaderboards had a HR/9 rate in a single season higher than Peterson’s current mark in the category. Four of them are no longer in the majors, while Matthew Boyd currently has a 0.87 HR/9.
Furthermore, in this 3-year sample, we see two pitchers that had a 1.50 HR/9 or greater in two seasons. Jakob Junis burst onto the scene in 2017 with a 9-3 record. His home run rate was elevated but not dangerously so, as he posted a 1.37 mark. But the next two seasons, he had a 1.63 and a 1.59 rate, respectively. Junis is still pitching in 2021 and still giving up too many homers. He has a 1.56 HR/9 and a 5.19 ERA. He’s lost his spot in the rotation and his work this year as a reliever has been even worse, as he has a 6.75 ERA in 12 IP out of the pen. At this rate, it will be a surprise if he’s still in the majors this time next year.
The other two-time guy on our radar is old pal Rick Porcello. In 2017, he had a 1.68 HR/9 and in 2019 he posted a 1.60 mark in the category. Last year with the Mets, Porcello got his home runs under control, as he notched a 0.76 HR/9. But he had terrible fortune, as batters had a .376 BABIP against him and the sequencing gods didn’t smile on him, either, as he posted a dismal 59.5 LOB%. He had a 5.64 ERA but just a 3.33 FIP. No one signed Porcello in the offseason. If he is willing to ink a minor league deal, the Mets should scoop him up. He’d likely add more upside than either Franklyn Kilome or Jesus Reyes, two guys in the rotation for Syracuse who are not exactly pitching lights out.
Getting back to Peterson, we see his strikeouts are up significantly from 2020, which is good. We see he’s shaved a tick off his walk rate but that he still has a way to go in that department. But the thing that’s really doing him in is the gopher ball. In one way, he’s been fortunate in that seven of his homers have come with the bases empty. That means that 78% of his homers have been solo shots, compared to a 54% rate among NL pitchers as a group. Just imagine how bad his numbers would be if those blasts came with men on base.
Can Peterson do what Boyd did and get his HR rate under control? If he does, maybe we’ll start hearing about his poise again. As it is, he may be pitching for his spot in the rotation in his next outing. Fortunately for him, he’ll miss the Padres and instead square off against the last-place Orioles. Baltimore is 12th in the AL in home runs hit, with just 59 HR in 56 games. So, it will be a favorable matchup for Peterson.
Maybe when he pitches every fifth day he’ll straighten out.
When Peterson has 6 or more days of rest, he has a 7.29 ERA in five games
When he’s on a normal 5 day rotation, he has a 5.19 ERA in four games
Yeah, it’s better but it’s not anything to write home about…
When Peterson was good, it was because he had pinpoint control. He was getting strike one and was painting later in the count. It all starts with his fastball, and when he’s bad, he can’t throw the fastball anywhere near where he wants.
I think the guy has the demeanor and the stuff to be a steady MLer… but he has to overcome his fragile early-game mentality… somebody should kick him in the ass before the first inning and piss him off… the similarities with Matz are scary.
Peterson has to control the homerun ball and if he does then should pitch to his 4.52 FIP a which would make him league average in ERA. That would make in a good 4th starter and a positive for the team.
Porcello is a good thought because of the improved infield defense but JD would be back and the metrics don’t favor him as defensive 3B. Still, Porcello is a viable option when the doubleheaders start to stress the pitcher staff.