In the last five games, the Mets have used their five best available starting pitchers, something which hasn’t happened very much this year. But because of a lousy start from David Peterson, the bullpen needed to provide 19 innings. And this despite three road losses that only required eight innings from the staff. In an ideal 2021 reality, your starters would do what Jacob deGrom did last night – give you seven innings. That would require your bullpen to give you around 10 innings in a turn through the rotation.
Of course, things are never ideal. A more realistic goal would be the pen providing 12-15 innings over a five-game span. But with the team having no idea whatsoever what it will get from Peterson, combined with Joey Lucchesi giving a season-high 4.2 IP in his last outing, that’s probably not a realistic goal for the current Mets, either.
Starting with Opening Day, let’s take a look at how much the bullpen has had to give every five games. Understand that due to off days, doubleheaders, extra-inning games, injured stints and openers – not every five-day span is created equal.
1st Turn – deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Peterson, Taijuan Walker, deGrom – 13 pen innings
2nd Turn – Walker, Stroman, Peterson, deGrom, Lucchesi – 11.2 pen innings
3rd Turn – Stroman, Walker, Peterson, Lucchesi, deGrom – 16 pen innings
4th Turn – Stroman, Walker, Peterson, deGrom, Stroman – 16 pen innings
5th Turn – Walker, Peterson, Lucchesi, Stroman, Miguel Castro – 19.1 pen innings
6th Turn – Walker, Peterson, Tommy Hunter, deGrom, Stroman – 24 pen innings
7th Turn – Walker, Peterson, Drew Smith, Stroman, Walker – 16.2 pen innings
8th Turn – Castro, Peterson, Stroman, Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto – 25.1 pen innings
9th Turn – Peterson, deGrom, Stroman, Lucchesi, Walker – 15.1 pen innings
10th Turn – deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, Walker, Lucchesi – 22 pen innings
Saturday night’s deGrom start was the start of the 11th turn through the rotation.
There have been six turns through the rotation where deGrom has pitched once. Let’s look at those six and calculate an average of pen usage. In those six turns, the pen contributed 105 innings, which rounds to an average of 17.2 IP.
Currently, the Mets are featuring a nine-man bullpen. That’s absolutely necessary if you’re asking the pen to go 25 innings per rotation turn. But is that the case if they’re needing “just” 17 innings? Right now, with the excess of position players on the IL, there aren’t a ton of options among hitters to promote. But once guys start getting healthy, combined with Seth Lugo working his way back into shape, we can look at this question again. For now, let’s say that nine relievers makes sense.
How do you use nine relievers for 17.2 innings and keep everyone rested but not rusty? It’s easier said than done, especially with the wild cards of Peterson and Lucchesi. From a purely theoretical point of view, you would avoid using any reliever besides possibly Edwin Diaz in back-to-back games and you’d look to give them two days in a row off if at all possible.
Lugo threw 20 pitches last night, so he’s the only one of the nine relievers who shouldn’t be used on Sunday. Castro, Robert Gsellman and Loup are the relievers who’ve had at least two days off and would be the ones to use today. But do you want to hold Gsellman for a potential long outing when Peterson goes Tuesday? Or does the off day on Monday mean that Lugo, Smith and Barnes can all give multiple innings, if needed? And what if you hold Gsellman and Peterson goes six or seven innings? Do you use Gsellman in a one-inning stint, where he’s given up runs in three of seven short outings?
We’d like to give every reliever two days off, if possible. But how long is too long to go without being used? If they hold Gsellman for the Peterson start and don’t use him then – he’s looking at not pitching until Thursday, when Lucchesi makes his next start. That would be nine days since his last appearance. This is just one example of how it’s tough to juggle nine relievers.
Off days and rainouts have saved the pen up until now. But after an off day Thursday, the Mets play 15 games in 13 days. And after an off day, they return with another doubleheader and play 17 straight days until the All-Star break.
The hope is that Carlos Carrasco can finally make his Mets debut and bring some more stability to the rotation, bumping one of the two wild cards. But no one knows when that will be. So, we have to hope that Luis Rojas can continue to be a master juggler and work his magic with the pen. Outside of his Trevor May usage, Rojas has generally done a nice job up until this point. May that continue through the next five weeks.
If they can average:
DeGrom 7
Walker 6
Stroman 6
Peterson 5
Lucchesi 5
That leaves 16 innings every rotation for the pen. Should be easy to manage that. Eventually Walker gets to 7, and Peterson gets to 6 (I still have hope).
They could lose a low-leverage reliever for an added bat.
The NL roster in suited more for a 13/13 roster construction because of the need of PH for pitcher. Hence ideally, eight pitchers in the bullpen. In the AL with the DH there is no need five position players on the bench so they can have nine pitchers in the bullpen and even an opener because the opener never hits thus the manager has the control to pulled him when he wants at two or three innings.
Openers take a toll on a bullpen as the article shows. A NL manager should avoid a opener and an AL manager probably should embrace opener in the 5th spot in his rotation.
Rojas should avoid it if he can. The present rotation should yield 16-17 bullpen innings and 8 pitchers should be in the bullpen.
Rojas sometimes pulls the starters too soon when their cruising. He is rigid with his game plan. Maybe flexibility will come with experience. He is doing a good job and the stats attest to it.
Metsense, I agree that Rojas sometimes pulls starters too early, but I wonder if that’s not a directive from the front office to err on the side of caution. Everyone is coming off low IP from last year, injuries are up across the league, and we’re already down two starters. We’ve got to do everything we can to keep deGrom, Stroman and Walker off the IL.
Brian,
That’s a wonderful packaging of the starter/reliever load, simple yet extremely informative all in one. Thanks! We all love to knock the handling of relievers, me included, but this shows it is tougher than it looks – trying to win games, not overuse in one appearance or over several games, and avoid rustiness.
The labor situation is not good, but if these two sides could actually work in tandem, I think there is some win win potential here. For years and years, the NHL has employed a system of “healthy scratch”…carrying more players than the roster permits, and declaring eligible players per game. This would definitely benefit baseball with regards to “relief” pitchers. Yes, there would be a long list of rules, but there is already some precedent, as they allow an “extra” guy for doubleheaders. Say each team gets to carry 2 “extra pitchers” and can flip those two onto the roster for any other non-starter that pitched in the prior game, or two. The players should go for it as it could provide more major league “jobs”…pay pro-rated for games on active roster, and it would allow better rest. Teams would like it because it should in theory reduce DL time for MLB players (money down the drain) and also provide a decent bargaining chip to get something in return this winter. As an extension, it may allow for a modification to avoid 7 inning minor league double headers, and to perhaps push back the “guy on second” an inning or two in extras. And, it would help “the bench” carry more positional players.
Thanks for the kind words, T.J.!
I think the NBA has a similar system, where you have more people to choose from but not everyone dresses. My question is if the pay is pro-rated for games on the active roster – is that a win for the players? I mean, it’s certainly a win for the guys getting MLB money for a particular game or games. But is it a win for the players’ union? Seems that extra money for the extra guys comes from another player. It doesn’t increase the size of the pie for the players – it just divides their share of the pie differently.
Yes, I should have said the “extras” would be paid MLB minimum for days on the “taxi squad”.