Please use this thread to comment on any Mets-specific topic you wish.
After 53 games, the Mets have 396 hits on the year, an average of 7.5 per game. Is that good? I dunno, it feels average. Shoot, let’s go ahead and find out. There have been 1,798 games played in the majors this year and there have been 14,122 hits for an average of 7.9 hits per game. So, the Mets’ total is below average. Wait, maybe the DH is skewing things. If we just look at the NL, there have been 6,938 hits in 892 games for an average of 7.8 hits per game.
The Mets have 97 hits with runners in scoring position. That’s an average of 1.8 hits per game with RISP. It seems highly unlikely that any of us have a feel for what is average here. But, my guess is that every single one of us would say this was low. The NL has 1,705 hits with runners in scoring position in 892 games, for an average of 1.9 hits per game with RISP. So, yeah, below average but not by a heck of a lot.
My impression is that the Mets have more than their share of hits with RISP that don’t drive in a run. Baseball-Reference’s Stathead allows us to find out this information but it’s several hoops to jump through to get it for just one team. The Mets have 24 hits this year with RISP that did not drive in a run. That’s essentially one-fourth of their hits in these situations that don’t score a run. That feels really high. But, it’s important to note that this is purely feel. None of us have any idea the context here.
And given the hoops, it’s not something I want to do for the entire league. But let’s do the Braves. Atlanta has 112 hits with RISP and they have 15 hits in these situations that didn’t drive in a run. That’s 13% of their hits with RISP. The Mets have almost twice as many, on a rate basis, hits with RISP that don’t drive in a run. That seems significant.
If you’re not feeling discouraged enough yet, the Braves have seven grand slams so far this year while the Mets have yet to hit their first.
The baseball gods owe us some runs.
Can’t wait to see what this offense is like at full-strength, or at least close to it. This team is constructed to have a deep lineup and a strong bench. When all players are healthy (or at least most) there’s enough depth to not only account for injuries, but also for slumps and match-ups. Having players like Villar and Pillar off the bench is a great luxury. Hope we get to enjoy that soon.
Last nights loss felt so lopsided it made me realize there have not been many losses like that this season. The mets have basically been in just about every game. I haven’t done the research so im going by gut alone but other than the cubs series I’m having trouble identifying other clunkers. Really good team that can be great. Zack Scott for permanent GM.
I agree! Scott has done an excellent job so far!
Some of the good moves made by the Mets since he took over: Signing Pillar, Villar and Loup, as well as Drury and Hunter; trading for McKinney, Lucchesi, Yamamoto, Reid-Foley, Y. Diaz and Lee.
Not sure if Scott was responsible for all the above moves, but it was probably most of them.
I think these kinds of aggregate analyses are important for seeing the general state of teams. Not all hits are created equal. Even though Im not watching nearly as much this year as in the past, I’m still struck by the number of times a Met will be up with runners aboard, only to get an inning ending out or DP, but come to the plate at a different AB in the game and single with 2 outs, 3 runs down, and in the 8th inning.I havent done the numbers on frequency, but my urge to throw a shoe at my computer screen seems pretty regular.
I guess one question I have daily now is this: the Bench Mob has us in first place. Given the superstitions in baseball, would a manager really start breaking up the band after a having a hit song on the radio? We should assume that Nimmo, Conforto, Almora, Guillorme, JD, McNeil etc etc are “Cold as Ice” (see how I snuck that in there?) – is it reasonable to take a team that’s basically bouncing along with “survival-level” expectations and doing well and overhaul with players that weren’t all that awesome before their respective injuries? Curious what you all think.
I was prepping an article on run differential and the Mets before the SD blowout, but the topic is back on the table after last night. Not sure when what this loks like a month from now as we hit the ASB, but as of today the Mets are +4. which works out to a 27-26 pythagorean record. Any long-term reader here will know I fully believe that the record is the record, but the underlying worry here comes out in Brian’s article above. This team need runs in a bad way. ESPN has a cool data page what looks at all the power metrics and one thing struck me when sorting through and that is the strength of schedule (SOS). As it stands, the Mets have the weakest SOS in all the land, NL and AL. That cant be a good sign when the schedule toughens up. ATL, WSH, and NYM all have played easy schedules, but the MIA and PHL have has much harder opponents. The Phillies are only 4 games back, but perhaps toughened from the competition. does that portend tough sledding ahead in Queens?
Chris, taking your last sentence, if their schedule is so weak, how do we know how good their pitchers truly are? The pitching has carried the Mets by and large while the backups’ backups have tried to not blow it; and it’s been working! While the Mets have been fortunate on the schedule, they’ve been unfortunate in the infirmary. It evens out.
As for who gets Wally Pipped, I’m pretty sure the #1 candidate is JD Davis right now, but #2 may be Guillorme.
Nimmo? Love him but Pilar seems special…
Chris, I hear your comment about the superstitions and breaking up something that is working, but McNeil, Nimmo and Conforto slot right back in when they are ready. I can see Davis losing some time to Villar, but for the Perazza’s and Drury’s of the world, they get a thanks for holding down the fort, but it’s time to let the big kids play.
“Not sure when what this loks like a month from now as we hit the ASB, but as of today the Mets are +4. which works out to a 27-26 pythagorean record.”
It only took one day to “correct” this, as after the Wed blowout win the Mets pythagorean record is back up to 29-25 which is only 1 gme behind their actual record of 30-24.
The easy schedule is definitely significant and a concern. Regardless of its cyclical nature (beating a team makes them drop in the rankings), the schedule ahead does portend rougher times and more demand from the offense.
I am encouraged by taking the final two in SD. Imagine had Jake lost 2-1, then we dropped the getaway game for a four game sweep… all the old Mets architecture would be crashing down on us. But they held. Jake did his stopper thing and Stroman came through. New Mets’ architecture? For that reason, I am less troubled by the harder schedule that looms before us. If McCann can support the middle of the order with Alonso and Smith at its core (McCann is not a number 3 hitter), and if Lindor can just make things happen offensively (far too many quiet outs), the team will compete.
Hard to imagine anyone being steadier than Peraza has been. Upgraded the defense and held his own offensively. He’s now a legitimate option to McNeil.
Agreed on Peraza – making some very good defensive plays and is a stable offensive contributor.
Peraza has been ok in the field, but his hitting has not been good. There is no way he’s a legitimate option to replace McNeil. Not even in the conversation in my mind.
+1
Career wise
McNeil: 379/489/867
Peraza: 308/372/680
2021
McNeil: 366/374/710 2 DRS
Peraza: 276/383/689 0 DRS
Peraza isn’t a option to McNeil career wise or in 2021. Peraza will be fighting for his roster spot with more versatile Brandon Drury 265/406/671. Both players have contributed to the team and it will a hard choice. for the front office and both have a waiver option and Arb 2.
You don’t really think that?
I guess the moves are
Guillorme up blankenhorn down
Almora up williams down
McNeil up drury down
Then it gets a bit trickier
Conforto up Smith or Peraza down
Nimmo and Davis probably not back til after the all star break at which point someone else will probably be injured.
Where is tommy hunter? Did that single in atlanta mess him up that badly?
Conforto up,Almora down…
McKinney is a guy they need to retain. Not because he just hit a couple of HR in Camden garbage time, and the sample size here is of course very small at this point. Hernandez observed early that he has a quick bat, and that can be seen on TV. Every now and then guys like this come around…guys with good skills that never got it going with brief opportunities at multiple places.
Conforto is almost certainly gone after this season, and I am in no way expecting McKinney to fill his shoes, but this guy is clearly a major leaguer, and it never hurts to have a controllable late-bloomer in your back pocket.
I have always had this thing in my life that I check. What is the 10th best hitter by average hitting in the National League. 60 games in, it is Juan Soto, who is hitting .284. Wow, and that is with 100 games to go. Feels alot like 1968.
To add to my last comment. Roberto Clemente was the 10th leading hitter in 1968 in the NL for the whole season at .291.
In 1968 there were 273 games where a team scored 8 or more runs. We’ve already had 265 of those here in 2021 – coming into tonight so there’s at least one more! – and we’re not even close to being halfway through the year. Batting average may be at ’68 levels but that’s not how we should be judging offensive output.
TJ, I’m on the McKinney bandwagon also. He is a nice 5th outfielder and can play average defense in LF and RF. He is a LHB power threat has 25 homeruns in just 505 career AB. Only 26 yoa, has one waiver option left and is controlled until 2026. This was a good trade by Scott.
The next game that Peterson should pitch will be 6/17 and Lucchesi 6/13 and 6/18. They will need starter for one of the games of 6/19 and for one of the games of 6/21 . Both dates are doubleheaders. If Lucchesi or Peterson fail on the 6/17 or 6/18 then the Mets will be hard pressed on the 19th. It seems that before 19th they should promote Szapucki, who is on the 40 man roster, to start on 6/19 and then other Syracuse starter, maybe Oswalt (not on the 40 man), for the 6/21. Also Reid-Foley should be promoted because he can pitch multiple innings just like Lugo and Gsellman can. I hope Carrasco heals quickly.