Coming into this year, Jonathan Villar had a lifetime OPS+ of 95 in 3,209 lifetime PA in the majors. That’s a little misleading, as he struggled in his first two half seasons in the majors and was terrible last year. From 2015-2019, he had a 101 OPS+ in 2,472 PA. After yesterday’s homer and HBP, Villar has a 117 OPS+, which ties a career high, matching what he put up in 679 PA back in 2016. In his last 13 games Villar is slashing .364/.451/.591 in 51 PA.
His solid overall play and his recent great hitting have led people to assume that he should remain a starter even once all of the walking wounded return. And while he should be the last of the bench mob to lose a starting position – seriously, can he hack it in an outfield corner? – the idea that what he’s done in his last 51 PA is more indicative of what he’s likely to produce going forward than what he’s done in 3.200+ PA that came before it is something that can’t be taken seriously.
Thru games of May 24, a span of 121 PA, Villar had a .656 OPS, essentially matching the .660 OPS he had with the Marlins in 2020, when it was hard for anyone to think he was a starter on a good team. The hits weren’t falling in for him at that point in the third week of May. Yet, he’s more than made up for that with his recent stretch.
The old saying is you’re never as good as you appear when things are going right and never as bad as you appear when you’re struggling. So, if Villar isn’t a .656 OPS guy and he’s not a 1.042 OPS guy – what is he? Do you think his current .769 OPS – 40 points above his lifetime average – represents what he’s likely to do for the rest of the season?
For me, that’s not an outlandish thing to think. It’s not likely, though, either. If asked to become an oddsmaker, it seems to me like it would be around a 33% chance of that happening.
None of this is meant to take away from the lift that Villar has given the Mets. But he’s a league-average player in the middle of a hot streak that has boosted his overall numbers into an above-average player. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with being a league-average player. It’s a great thing to have on your team but ideally – especially for teams with visions of the playoffs – your starters are better than that and you have a guy or two like that on your bench.
Jeff McNeil has a lifetime 135 OPS+, even with his tough start to 2021. J.D. Davis has a 133 OPS+ in his career with the Mets. Most people are saying that Davis should cede playing time to Villar when he’s healthy. But we should keep in mind that it’s hard to reconcile being impressed with Villar’s 117 OPS+ this year when you were so disappointed with Davis’ 110 mark in 2020, one that dropped significantly after getting HBP in a game against the Yankees in late August.
Villar backers will point to the fact that he’s better than Davis in the non-hitting facets of the game and that his total production makes him a better bet to play going forward. This may be true. But it still requires us to accurately assess Villar’s ability both in the field and on the basepaths. Villar once stole 62 bases in a season. He’s a better baserunner than Davis but it’s not like he’s going to add the value there that he did in 2016. While it’s just one facet of baserunning, Villar has been caught stealing four times in 11 attempts this year, which is not good.
Defensively, Villar looks good at the position. But Cameron Maybin looked good standing in the batter’s box. You’ve got to look beyond that. Villar has a (-1) DRS and a (-1.6) UZR at 3B this year. That extrapolates to a (-15.8) UZR/150. Again, that’s not good. It may be better than what Davis would do – his UZR/150 this year is (-22.7) – but it seems people are vastly overrating the edges that Villar has in the non-hitting aspects of the game.
Davis had 48 PA this year before going on the IL for the second time, which is right about the 51 PA that Villar has in his current great stretch with the bat. Davis has a 47-point edge in OPS over Villar. These are tiny samples and it’s difficult to gather much from them. But if Villar is performing at the plate better than anyone could have dreamed of and Davis is still that much better…
Kevin Pillar has been inspirational with how he’s handled getting hit in the face with the ball. But when everyone’s healthy, neither he nor Billy McKinney take a starting spot from either Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo. Jose Peraza has been solid and Luis Guillorme has been even better than that but they both take a seat when McNeil comes back. And Villar is in the same boat.
You can’t let a two-week hot streak outweigh what a player has done in over 3,000 PA in the majors.
Sometimes chemistry dictates your moves. In Strat-O-Magic, you look at the card and ratings and pick the best one. In real life, you go with what’s working especially while it’s working. Right now the Mets have no choice, but when the choices start returning, they can see if Villar is still raking.
Chris in the Gut Reaction makes a very good point. He prefers McKinney as the starter in LF over Dom Smith when Conforto comes back and based on what’s going on right now, he’s right. However, McKinney has been released twice, and Smith has been very productive in about 1/3 season’s plate appearances two straight years. So….
Davis is a very astute hitter and the team will find a place for him as even Smith is not really doing too well. As they say in the business, these things have a way of working themselves out.
Rod Barajas
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Juan Lagares
John Buck
Josh Satin
Eric Campbell
James Loney
Adrian Gonzalez
Jose Bautista
Austin Jackson
These are all guys who had a brief time where they played out of their minds but not one of those guys were good for an entire season as a Met. The best was Lagares, who was slightly below average for a CF in 2014.
Thinking that Villar or McKinney is going to perform anything remotely like what they’ve done in their brief hot streaks is the textbook definition of wishful thinking.
Brian,
I agree with your conclusions, however, I would separate Villar from McKinney. Villar is much more proven in the majors, and easier to project. He is also a little older and closer to past prime. He has been wonderful as a fill in, but he is better as a strong bench piece. McKinney in some ways is very intriguing to me. I believe that like Dom, he was a first round pick. Like Dom, he had intriguing tools as a kid, has made it all the way to the bigs, and still flashes skills that can play at this level. Unlike Dom, I don’t think he ever put together a run at the big league level that an employer felt merited every day at bats for a substantial run. I don’t know enough about his career to know specifically why…if he flashed major deficits, was very low on the depth chart, etc. I think he came up with the Yankees, that would never commit to a guy like this, especially with Judge on a similar path time wise. Anyhow, there is no way I’d play him ahead of Conforto, but I’d certainly keep this guy around, and I’d also consider giving him some of Don’s AB’s if he continues to struggle. Every now and then, these late bloomers emerge, guys like JD Martinez, Joey Bats, etc. would it be wonderful to hit on a guy like this?
I’d feel pretty good going to the postseason with a bench of Nido, Guillorme, Villar, Pillar and McKinney
+1 Brian. +1 TJ
McKinney 508 career AB 25 HR. He is a good piece for the bench
Villar is more of a compete player than JD. Villar put up a 4.5 bWAR in 2019. JD’s best bWAR was also 2019 at 1.1. This year JD has a 0.6 bWAR and Villar has a 0.8 bWAR with 3X as many at bats than JD.(extrapolating it to 1.8 bWAR).Therefore JD is better than Villar this year. Villar had his best bWAR in his prime at 28 yoa and it would be unlikely for him duplicate it. JD is 28 yoa and was having an exceptional year when he got hurt. Davis should be the starter for majority of the time when he gets healthy. Villar is a good bench player for a good team.
Scott and Alderson did an exceptionally good job obtaining depth for their system.
I think you ride the hot hand until its no longer hot. Right now pulling out Villar is a huge mistake, much like McKinney. Yes, transition to more playing time is important for the old regulars, but its a huge mistake to to dismantle a thing going well for a raft of players with no big league time in some serious time.