Dominic Smith stays in the lineup and the XBH start appearing

In his last three games, Dominic Smith is 4-9 with a double and two homers. It seems like every time that Smith or Pete Alonso or Francisco Lindor strings together a handful of games with good results that we’re expecting them to put up a month-long stretch like this and it just hasn’t happened yet. Of course, with how Jonathan Villar and Billy McKinney have hit in the last three weeks or so, we really can’t complain. Still, we dream on how good this Mets team could be if the injured guys were healthy and the healthy guys were productive.

Smith’s an interesting case because he did so good in 2020 and when healthy in 2019, he was pretty good, too. His most recent play heading into this year indicated someone with All-Star ability. The problem was that it just wasn’t a big enough sample to be convinced, especially when you note the elevated BABIPs he posted the past two seasons.

This year, Smith checks in with a .695 OPS in 223 PA, which is lower than just about what anyone expected. This is slightly more playing time than he amassed in either 2019 or 2020 but right in the same ballpark. If we add all three samples together, we see Smith has a .280/.349/.501 line in his last 619 PA. Is this who Smith is as a hitter? That’s a 130 OPS+, which is a very solid number. We should note that it still comes with an elevated BABIP, as Smith has a .331 mark in the category over the past three seasons combined.

To me, the big number to concentrate on is his ISO, which is .221 over the past three seasons. That includes a disappointing .131 ISO here in 2021. It’s why the three extra-base hits in the past three games is so encouraging. No one expects a repeat of the .360 BABIP that he put up in last year’s truncated season. He can survive not having the hits fall in to such an incredible degree if he keeps socking the ball. And that just hasn’t been the case for most of this year.

On the broadcasts, they’ve talked repeatedly how Smith has struggled this season with offspeed stuff, after punishing those same offerings last year. Overall, he just doesn’t seem as comfortable, certainly not as locked in as he did in 2020. Pitch type offerings aside, all of his other numbers are down just a little bit, with the end result being more of a cumulative thing, rather than, “oh, he’s swinging at too many pitches outside the strike zone,” or “he’s hitting too many balls on the ground,” or “he’s striking out too much.”

No one would look at what Smith has done in 2021 and suggest the Mets should trade Alonso to open up first base for him. Yet we heard people suggest that very same thing prior to this season. This isn’t meant as a dig at Smith. Instead, it’s a reminder of how not to overreact to a small sample. And yes, the 199 PA of 2020 was indeed a small sample.

In the same way, the 223 PA of 2021 is a small sample, too.

Maybe it has less to do with sample size and more to do with comfort based on other things. Perhaps being in a lineup where other hitters were healthy and performing allowed Smith to relax in 2020 while this year, he’s felt the stress of being one of the few guys to avoid the IL. Or maybe it’s because last year he had the comfort of playing at his natural position of first base, as compared to this year’s need to play more in the outfield. We saw Lucas Duda play so much better when he was able to slot in at first base. But, Duda was a train wreck in the OF and Smith isn’t. He may not look pretty out there – and his penchant for catching balls at his waist might drive you crazy – but he has a 0 DRS and a 2.0 UZR.

My thoughts are that the stuff in the last paragraph is greatly overblown by most people. Sometimes things just happen. And while we like to categorize things and give an explanation for everything, sometimes the answer is just … because.

Sometimes, the hits fall in and you post a .360 BABIP and crush every slider that gets thrown. And sometimes you’re out of whack and feel fortunate if you get a single every other game, despite whatever slop the pitcher is throwing. We get so caught up in the day-to-day grind that we forget to look at the big picture.

And the big picture is that the overwhelming majority of players have peaks and valleys throughout the season. Sometimes these things can be explained and sometimes they can’t. A few days ago, it was common to hear that Smith needed a day off. He didn’t get one and now no one is suggesting one for him. Maybe he keeps hitting and we look at the decision to keep him in the lineup as the turning point in his season. Or perhaps Smith goes on another hitless stretch and the calls for a day off come out again, this time only louder.

Has Smith done enough in his MLB career to deserve the benefit of the doubt and to play through extended rough patches? This seems like a point on which reasonable people could disagree. While it was frustrating to watch Lindor struggle, most people felt that there was too much of a track record there for him to post an OPS below .600 for an entire season. Maybe there’s not enough there for Smith to say the same thing.

Regardless, it’s nice to see the power returning to Smith’s game. Now let’s hope he keeps producing those extra-base hits, even if they come as a .250 hitter and not the .316 mark he put up in 2020.