Mets embark on 16-game stretch against NL East clubs

Before the season started, this figured to be the Mets’ most challenging time with the schedule. After seven games with the Padres and Cubs, they were going to have a host of games against division rivals. The hope was that by now the rotation would be complete and that the club would be at full strength for this difficult stretch. Look at how wrong you can be. The rotation is still missing two starters, half of the starting lineup still is on the IL and the upcoming games against the division doesn’t feature one game against a team currently above .500 for the season.

The next 16 games are against the NL East, a number higher than the original schedule due to makeups of rainouts and the rescheduling of some games. First up is a four-game set with the Nationals. For several years, this has been a measuring stick for the Mets, going head-to-head with a deep, star-studded team, one that ended up winning it all back in 2019.

But it’s not like it once was in Washington. There’s been the loss to free agency of two big pieces from the lineup, their two-best pitchers are currently on the IL and the pipeline that seemed to provide one homegrown star after another hasn’t delivered the annual All-Star the past couple of seasons. Instead, the Nats try to beat you with a lineup that doesn’t feature any sinkholes and a pitching staff just trying to get the game to Brad Hand.

It doesn’t sound like much – and it’s not, really – but they head into the series against the Mets having won their last four games and six of their last eight. That’s not bad for a team that sits 30-35 overall. In their last eight games, Washington has scored 31 and allowed just 14 runs, with seven of those coming in one outing. In their last seven games, they’ve held their opponent to two runs or fewer, including two shutouts of the first-place Giants.

That type of offensive output doesn’t usually result in six wins in eight games. It helps to play three against the Pirates. Regardless, the Nats have had an interesting path to success in this span, with their big-name players – Trea Turner, Juan Soto and Ryan Zimmerman – struggling but everyone else coming up with big hits. It’s one thing to lose to the Nats if Soto is mashing and Turner is causing havoc but when it’s because Josh Harrison, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell each have four-digit OPS totals – that’s just not what you expect to see.

But pitching is where the Nats have shined here recently. In the past two weeks, they have four starters who’ve made two starts each and that quartet has combined to allow just 8 ER in 44.1 IP for a 1.62 ERA. One of those starters is Max Scherzer, who’s now on the IL. But Joe Ross, who starts the opener of the series against the Mets, hasn’t allowed an ER in his last 14 IP.

On the flip side, the Mets head to Washington with five of their eight starting hitters carrying a sub-.200 AVG in the past week, with slugger Pete Alonso’s struggles standing out despite all of the company. Alonso is just 3-23 with 8 Ks in his last seven games. Jonathan Villar has been the bright spot, with a .924 OPS in the past week.

However, much like the Nats, the Mets have received outstanding pitching recently. The entire staff has a 2.80 ERA over the past two weeks, this despite some pen meltdowns from Jacob Barnes, Miguel Castro, Robert Gsellman and Trevor May in that span. Because of regular early exits from David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi, the pen has been used frequently. It’s forced the Mets to use a nine-man bullpen, with only Gsellman not being used much in the last few days.

With all of the doubleheaders coming up, along with the somewhat questionable status of Jacob deGrom, it will be curious to see if Lucchesi is allowed more rope than he’s been given to date. He’s pitched very well in his last four starts, posting a 1.56 ERA. The problem is he’s gone just 17.1 IP in that span.

The Mets have played well so far in 2021, much better than they should given their injury status. They have an opportunity in the next couple of weeks to add to their lead, going head-to-head with the top teams in the East. It would be nice to see a killer instinct develop, finishing off teams with a sweep when the opportunity presents itself. They’ll need more from the offense if that’s to happen, certainly better production than what they received Thursday night.