Jacob deGrom has left early in both of his last two starts, leading the armchair doctors to speculate that it’s all because of the effort/velocity which he throws his pitches. Never mind that deGrom himself has said that swinging the bat is what has caused him the most trouble. Never mind that that neither one of the injuries that has led to the early removal has the pitcher himself deemed serious, that removing him from the game has been erring on the side of caution.
The armchair doctors want him to dial it back, to only go some percentage of what he’s capable of doing. Now, some of these armchair doctors are the same people who get mad at strict adherence to pitch counts. They call out the craziness that 92 pitches equal safe yet 104 pitches equal danger. Yet, these same people expect that deGrom throwing 100% is dangerous but somehow if he only goes 93% – or some such number – it will mean one long start after another while still being the best pitcher in baseball.
It’s fine to have an opinion. But some opinions are based in fact and others, well, they have more to do with wishful thinking than anything else. There’s not a whole lot of facts for us to go on with how to handle the deGrom situation. Sometimes that’s how it is. The key is to recognize what’s reality and what’s an alternate reality or pure speculation.
Interestingly, deGrom has totaled exactly nine innings pitched in his last two starts. In those two appearances, he’s combined for 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB and 18 Ks. We all want to see that guy take his turn every fifth day and pitch deep into games. But there’s just as much evidence – if not more – that the way to make that happen is to have him stop swinging the bat. But you never hear that one, do you?
GOURMET RAFAEL SANTANA HEATS UP – After deGrom, the most important Met is likely Francisco Lindor. While deGrom has been outstanding when healthy, Lindor has been healthy and, well, something considerably short of outstanding. But he had his best day as a Met yesterday, going 4-7 in the doubleheader with two homers. There have been stops and starts in his season but in his last 21 games, Lindor is slashing .295/.368/.564 in 87 PA. Even before yesterday’s big output, Lindor had an .829 OPS in his previous 19 games. Now, that might not sound all that great, but he had a .555 OPS before that streak. And Lindor is doing it without the hits falling in at some remarkable rate. Before the doubleheader, he had a .302 BABIP and his big day that made his OPS jump 103 points only made his BABIP rise to .316 for the hot streak. The ball jumped off of his bat and it will be a fun summer if we see that happen with more frequency.
LONG DAYS FOR LONG MEN IN THE PEN – The performance of the bullpen has been one of the team’s saving graces so far this season. But reality may be setting in for two guys the club has counted on to give them innings when the starters exit early. Robert Gsellman was a surprise choice to make the team out of Spring Training. But he got off to a great start. In his fourth and fifth outings of the year, Gsellman combined to go 5.1 scoreless innings and his ERA sat at an impressive 2.35 for the season. Since then, Gsellman has appeared in 10 games and in 19 IP has a 4.26 ERA with 5 BB and 10 Ks. He doesn’t strike out enough guys and there are too many balls hit in the air. In those 10 games, he’s allowed 33 fly balls and three of those have left the yard. And that’s better than league average with HR/FB. So, as unimpressive as he’s been lately, it could easily be worse.
Meanwhile, Sean Reid-Foley became everyone’s darling by being sent to the minors despite a sub-2.00 ERA. But in his last four games – two before the demotion and two since his recall – Reid-Foley has allowed 8 ER in 8 IP and opposing batters have a 1.110 OPS against him. Unlike Gsellman, Reid-Foley does a good job getting strikeouts. His problem is what happens when batters make contact. They’ve put the ball in play 43 times against him this season in the majors and 22 of those have been classified as hard-hit ones. That 51.2 HardHit% is easily the highest mark on the team among those pitchers with at least 5 IP.
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES – This time last week, everyone was singing the praises of Jonathan Villar and saying how he shouldn’t lose any playing time once J.D. Davis returns. Of course, he was enjoying a hot streak at the time, one that pushed his season-long OPS+ to 117. In the past seven games, Villar has a .160/.250/.240 triple-slash line. That’s lowered his season-long OPS+ to 105. That’s still better than what we should have expected from Villar in this much playing time. But hopefully it’s enough for people not to be quite so eager to shuttle Davis and his lifetime 133 OPS+ as a Met to the bench.
RETURN OF THE WALKING WOUNDED – Jeff McNeil is supposed to return to the lineup in the next day or so and then we might see other hitters return on a weekly basis after that. None of the quartet of McNeil, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo and Davis have been placed on the 60-day IL. And that’s a good thing, because while it seems they’ve been out for months, it hasn’t quite been that long, yet. So, the good news for the bench mob is that no one should lose their spot in the organization over this. Mason Williams got a reprieve when Joey Lucchesi went on the IL yesterday. That meant the Mets could continue their Albert Almora fascination without having to send Williams to Syracuse. Williams may or may not be any better than Almora. But we can say with a very high confidence level that Almora is not very good.
Billy McKinney will benefit from a return to the majors by Conforto, which will send McKinney to the bench. After getting off to a great start, McKinney is 2-19 in his last 22 PA. McKinney can retain his cult status by not being in the starting lineup. There’s a reason this is the fifth organization for the 26 year old. Now, a lefty with pop is a good thing to have on the bench. But hopefully no one thinks his presence is a reason to let Conforto leave as a free agent after the end of the season.
Good thoughts, Brian, and the kind of reporting that we have come to expect for this great site.
As I mentioned earlier this morning, it’s time for Gsellman to establish himself as a true ML pitcher or not. Let the guy throw some innings. We should know by Trade Deadline what he’s worth to the roster.
Villar needs to stay involved. Maybe he’s wearing out a little, or maybe his true value is becoming settled. But few of us would disagree that when the team really needed it, he was huge.
With all the returning players, the worry is how long they will take to get the rust off. I mean, can the team really afford for McNeil to go 2-20? Conforto to take 2 weeks to find his rhythm? True that it helps that neither is replacing an offensive dynamo… but until Dom and Pete are reliably driving the ball, we’ll need those returning ABs to be at least a little productive.
Nice coverage, Brian. The bench mob and pen have done a tremendous job keeping the team at the top of the NL East, but certainly this is not a group to lean on for 162 and expect to outperform the competition. This goes for the pitchers as well as the position players. Getting back better players is key.
I though Gsellman could benefit from a bunch of innings as a starter in AAA, but that won’t happen any time soon given the schedule.
McKinney looks to be a keeper, cult status or not, but more so going forward as a bench piece and potential platoon player down the road, should the need arise. I think Conforto is a very good player, I just think both he and his agent overvalue him, they are going to see what the marketplace is like, and someone else may overpay, a la the Blue Jays with Springer.