Marcus Stroman squares off against Zack Wheeler, the guy he replaced in Queens

Today’s matchup features Zack Wheeler versus Marcus Stroman, two pitchers who are linked in team history. Former Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen acquired Stroman at the trade deadline in 2019, to improve the club’s chances that season and to essentially act as a replacement for Wheeler, who was a free agent in the 2019-20 offseason. This will be the first time the two have matched up in a game since Wheeler became a Philly.

Van Wagenen had already blown it, refusing to extend Wheeler before the 2019 season started. Wheeler had always been a guy with more potential than actual results but what he did in the second half of 2018 was enough to make anyone sit up and notice. Well, anyone besides an agent turned GM, one more interested in taking care of his former clients than serving the club’s best interests.

Wheeler did not get out of the gate strong in 2019 but by the end of the year he was again showing signs of being one of the top pitchers in the game. But with Stroman under control for another year, Van Wagenen let Wheeler go to the rival Phillies. That was disappointing but you could rationalize it, saying the club had made a business decision. But Van Wagenen couldn’t let it go, as he got into a war of words with Wheeler, essentially saying all he had done in his career was to turn in two good half seasons.

Technically, Van Wagenen was right. But, in his position, just because you’re right doesn’t mean you should verbalize every thought you have, every second you have them. He came across looking both petty and vindictive. You would think a former agent – one who did a good job putting out fires others created – would know the value of not setting fires. But in this case, Van Wagenen was wrong on the value of Wheeler and he was wrong on getting into a verbal fight with a player.

But was he wrong on Stroman?

The Mets paid a heavy, but fair, price to get Stroman, sending two of their top pitching prospects to Toronto to get him. Anthony Kay has reached the majors but he’s been a below-average pitcher, one who allows too many baserunners to have any kind of long-term success. Simeon Woods Richardson was further away than Kay but thought to have more upside. He was not doing particularly well in Lo-A before the trade. When he joined the Blue Jays, they gave him a promotion.

Woods Richardson did much better at the higher level, as he posted a 2.54 ERA in the Florida State League, nearly half the ERA he posted in Lo-A. But Woods Richardson did not pitch professionally in 2020 due to the pandemic. This year Toronto bumped him up to Double-A and the results just haven’t been there. Overall, Woods Richardson has a 4.13 ERA and in his last start he allowed 6 ER in 2.1 IP. He’s piling up the strikeouts but a 1.316 WHIP doesn’t scream future star.

It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride for Stroman, though, either. A guy known for his ability to generate grounders instead was getting victimized for homers – he allowed 7 HR in his first 35.2 IP – when he first joined the Mets. However, Stroman showed the Mets what he could do the last four starts of 2019, as he put up a 1.88 ERA and held opposing batters to a .540 OPS.

Stroman began 2020 on the injured list, the result of a calf injury suffered when he was hit by a line drive during Spring Training. Then, depending on your point of view, Stroman made a decision that was either a smart one where he weighed all of the evidence or one where he abandoned his teammates and took the easy way out.

While on the IL, Stroman accumulated enough service time to qualify for free agency following the 2020 season. When he was getting ready to return, the Mets were about to embark on a road trip to Miami, an area that had been a Covid hot spot. Stroman discussed matters with his family and chose to opt out of the remainder of the season.

It was a blow to the Mets, who were struggling to replace two starting pitchers and hoped that Stroman’s return would give them a major boost. On the trip to Miami, two people involved with the Mets – one player and one staff member – did indeed come down with Covid, making Stroman’s hesitancy there look prescient.

Meanwhile, Wheeler was terrific for the Phillies. He finished ninth in the NL in IP and tied for eighth in fWAR. While the Mets were trotting out Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha and watching them deliver one uninspired performance after another, Wheeler’s worst start of the year was a 5.2 IP, 3 ER effort against the Orioles. He made three starts against the Mets and the Phillies were 2-1 in those games and the one loss was one that the bullpen blew.

Wheeler is enjoying another strong season here in 2021 and has moved past Aaron Nola to be the ace of his team’s staff. Wheeler has a 2.36 ERA and a 0.977 WHIP. He’s pitched seven or more innings nine times in a game so far this year, a good thing for any team but one incredibly important to the team like the Phillies with their poor bullpen performance.

But Stroman has been every bit as good as Wheeler in 2021.

There were concerns about how Stroman would do after not throwing a pitch in 2020. Yet all he’s done is post a 2.32 ERA and 1.055 WHIP, which would make him the top pitcher on a lot of staffs. Stroman hasn’t given the innings that Wheeler has – 14 fewer – but with the Mets’ bullpen being so good, they haven’t had to push him like the Phillies have had to with Wheeler.

The question becomes: Who would you rather have going forward, Stroman or Wheeler? The Mets gave Stroman the Qualifying Offer this past offseason and he accepted. That option won’t be available to the Mets this offseason and there’s no doubt that he will command a lucrative, multi-year deal on the open market.

Meanwhile, the Phillies will have Wheeler in 2022, as they inked him to a deal that will carry him thru the 2024 season. Wheeler got a 5/$118 deal, one that Van Wagenen thought was a massive overpay but one that looks like it will work out nicely for Philadelphia. What kind of deal will Stroman pull down this offseason and will it be with the Mets?

Some thought that the Mets would let Stroman walk after this year, preferring to sign Noah Syndergaard to a long-term deal. But Syndergaard, who also missed 2020, is taking longer to return to the mound than anticipated and it doesn’t look like he’ll be back before September. Can the Mets commit a long-term deal to Syndergaard after he’ll have missed all but one month of the past two seasons? And if Stroman keeps up this pitching the rest of the year, can they afford to let a guy of that caliber leave in two of the past three seasons?

These two pitchers will always be entwined in Mets’ history, making it an interesting sub-plot when they square off later today. It’s a good match-up on the strength of their performance in 2021. But knowing the Van Wagenen Mets chose Stroman over Wheeler gives it an extra bit of juice.