If you’ve been following the Mets for a while, you’ve seen your share of things that seem hard to wrap your head around. Among others there was losing key games in the final series of the season in back-to-back years to a Marlins team they otherwise handled pretty well in 2007 and 2008. There was everyone and their brother going on the DL in 2009, there was four-and-a-half months of producing the worst numbers with runners in scoring position since the 1969 expansion Padres in 2016. Then they called up a guy ranked as the best prospect in baseball in 2017, only to see him be below average with both the bat and the glove in four seasons with the club. And who could forget 2020, when seven of the 10 pitchers who started a game for the club had an ERA of 5.67 or greater?
Which brings us to 2021. My belief, one shared by most people, was that this was going to be a very good offensive team. Instead, they are neck-and-neck with the Pirates for the worst runs per game mark in the NL. The Mets are currently .02 rpg ahead of the Pirates but a week from now they could easily be back in last place.
We all know offense is down and the Mets have had so many injuries that they were literally playing third and fourth-stringers instead of their regulars. But it’s not like the regulars were going great before getting injured. Only Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis were hitting well before landing on the IL. We’ve been teased about that duo’s return time and time again. The latest was that Nimmo was supposed to be activated early this week. Now that’s been pushed back to at least Friday. Unlike with the Mets’ offense – the hits here just keep coming.
In 2019, the last full season we have to examine, the NL had a .753 OPS. Through games of Monday, the 2021 NL has a .705 OPS. That’s a pretty stark difference and it gives us a frame of reference. In this year where offense is down, we should expect players to be about 50 points of OPS worse than what they were in 2019. Let’s check everyone on this year’s Mets with at least 50 PA and compare this year’s results with what they did in 2019:
| Player | 2021 AB | 2021 OPS | 2019 AB | 2019 OPS | OPS Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 310 | .666 | 654 | .854 | -.188 |
| Dominic Smith | 265 | .676 | 197 | .881 | -.205 |
| Pete Alonso | 259 | .818 | 693 | .941 | -.123 |
| James McCann | 219 | .665 | 476 | .789 | -.124 |
| Jonathan Villar | 208 | .743 | 714 | .792 | -.049 |
| Kevin Pillar | 173 | .687 | 645 | .719 | -.032 |
| Michael Conforto | 155 | .669 | 648 | .856 | -.187 |
| Jeff McNeil | 144 | .655 | 567 | .916 | -.261 |
| Jose Peraza | 116 | .657 | 403 | .631 | .026 |
| Tomas Nido | 91 | .690 | 144 | .547 | .143 |
| Billy McKinney | 89 | .834 | 276 | .696 | .138 |
| Luis Guillorme | 80 | .682 | 70 | .684 | -.002 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 80 | .870 | 254 | .783 | .087 |
We expect a (roughly) 50-point OPS difference. We have six players expected to be starters who are 123 points or more below their 2019 OPS output. One starter (Davis) didn’t have enough PA to qualify for the list and the other expected starter, Nimmo, has only 80 PA this year and his 2019 numbers were depressed due to the time spent playing with an injured neck that season.
Villar and Pillar, who have received so much credit for their play this year, are essentially performing how we would expect based on their 2019 numbers. It’s just when everyone else is massively underperforming, playing to expectations looks good in comparison. The other five players on the list are performing better than they did in 2019. But it’s important to note that these guys have the fewest PA, too. If we did this chart on June 15, McKinney would have had a 1.049 OPS for 2021. In his last 30 PA, McKinney has seen his Mets OPS drop 215 points.
We have nearly half of the list who played on a team besides the Mets in 2019. So, instead of using raw OPS totals to compare, let’s use OPS+, which will have the added benefit of not having to manually adjust for the difference in run production for the two years. So, instead of subtracting 50 points from the OPS totals, we can just compare the numbers as they are.
| Player | 2019 OPS+ | 2021 OPS+ |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 117 | 88 |
| Dominic Smith | 131 | 91 |
| Pete Alonso | 145 | 130 |
| James McCann | 107 | 87 |
| Jonathan Villar | 110 | 110 |
| Kevin Pillar | 88 | 91 |
| Michael Conforto | 126 | 92 |
| Jeff McNeil | 142 | 86 |
| Jose Peraza | 59 | 83 |
| Tomas Nido | 45 | 94 |
| Billy McKinney | 83 | 131 |
| Luis Guillorme | 84 | 99 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 110 | 148 |
The idea that Alonso, Conforto, Lindor, McCann, McNeil and Smith would be a combined 194 points of OPS+ behind what they did in 2019 is something that I just have a hard time comprehending. Now, that’s just adding up their individual OPS+ numbers. If we actually used the individual components to come up with an accurate OPS+ the numbers would likely be different. But this is the general ballpark of how bad this sextet has been this season.
Just like Neville Chamberlain in 1938 – I never saw that coming.
Nice job Brian. Its clear this team cannot hit. And whats worse is that Chili Davis had them rolling. Alderson’s offensive philosophy remains as bankrupt as ever. What worse is that the team is doubling down on HR or nothing. I think the Bench Mob managed to just play baseball and keep the team rolling, but the return of players who were under performing and now continuing to under perform by swinging for a 6-run HR at every AB has left this team in dire straights.
Right now the team has squandered the possibility of nearly being able to kill off the rest of the NL East, leaving the entirety of the division open.
“Right now the team has squandered the possibility of nearly being able to kill off the rest of the NL East, leaving the entirety of the division open.”
This comes off to me as a “spoiled brat” type attitude. The Mets have a respectable record at 6 games over and yet you’re dismayed that they aren’t 20 games over .500 and 10+ games ahead in the standing.
And i know you’re the mayor of panic city but still – using phrases such as “dire straights” in late June when no other NL east team is above .500 and hasn’t shown much signs of life is hard to comprehend.
Yeah, coming from someone who has watched literally every at bat this season, I can tell you these guys are stinking it up. If they get anywhere near typical by October, Mets will finish strong.
McNeil: he has to figure what hitter he is… hitting medium deep fly balls will get him a ticket to irrelevance.
Smith: clearly he’s hit a funk. I mean, he had a truncated season in 2019 and was dropping like lead weight when he went down. Then he had a great 60 games in 2020. So who is he?
Nimmo: when are we gong to see a legit sample of his abilities? Injuries have aborted each season, and he was on an 0-16 skid when the finger went pop this season.
JDDavis: I think he has a legit offensive upside. He will land with some team, either DH or play the OF (I thought he was adequate in LF) and will put up good numbers. Probably ultimately better than Dom.
Alonso: Harmon Killerbrew… maybe better.
Conforto: stock is down, man. He’d better get going soon or he will lose 50 million easy.
McCann: I’m already bored with McCann at the plate… .240/.300/.350… hope he’s solid behind the dish.
Villar: could not ask for more from him.
Pillar: ditto. The guy’s reinventing himself… might be the most dangerous guy in the lineup right now.
Guillorme: How about driving the ball, dude… you’re making me look bad… but he need to be on the field at the end of each game. Blankenship cost them yesterday, as will McNeil.
Was at the Syracuse game Saturday – Nimmo K’d with bases loaded and had another chance to drive in run with game tied and man on 2nd in 9th and walked. I am glad they are keeping him there another week to work on his swing.
I’m ready to trade Nimmo… all that potential… let someone pay us for it.
I’m ready to trade Dom… highly skilled 1B with potentially power bat. Pay up!
I’m ready to trade McNeil (blasphemy!!) Not sure who would want to hold out for him being, what Gary Cohen likes to say, a “potential batting champion”. He’s been a weaker hitter for a long stretch now.
Of all the group, I think I’d rather keep JDDavis, but I’d play him in LF. That said, he would also bring a pretty good value in trade currency.
You know how you get rich? You find something shiny, make sure everyone sees it so shiny, then sell it before it stops being shiny… at the top of its value.
I too expected much better offense from the team this year but the reality is that all things needed to fall in place for them to score runs. It was not like they have ever been a team of solid hitters invoking visions of 1986 when they appeared to score runs at will and had so many contributors. They’re only real home run threat is Alonso and we all knew that teams would start pitching around him and then it would be up to him to adjust. I think we expected McNeil to hit close to 300 as he has done while on the team and that Conforto would accumulate good statistics over the course of the year but somehow we would look at him day-to-day and wonder when he would become a breakout star. And we had Dom Smith who had a great 60 game season but no other indications that he was a slugger. I think we all looked at the acquisition of Lindor as the first overall solid star to join the team and while for the most part he’s played a great shortstop he too, almost at the All-Star break, has been a major disappointment at the plate. Thankfully our pitching has kept us in the hunt. Great analysis Brian. It’s scary how many players can’t get going at the plate.
I think a retooling is in order and I hope that we are active at or before the deadline plucking some ready to play players from other teams by moving some of our under performing players but not our prospects. I think there should be very few untouchables but still count Alonso and McNeil in that category.
Brian,
Nice analysis as usual. Certainly the offense collective has been terrible, and the numbers above highlight the culprits for sure. At times, they have been unwatchable.
But…they are in first place, despite a putrid offense and a ton of injuries. Are all these guys going to stink it up this bad for the entire year? I suspect not. At the end of the season, there will be some decisions to make, as is the case every year, but regardless of the runs scored per game so far, they are built to compete for the division as is, and are leading at this point. What they need most is health and some reps – Nimmo, McNeil, Davis, Villar, and the bench mob filling in as needed. Get to the ASB without a collapse and go from there. For my money, I would still prefer seeing them add some pitching at the deadline if anything. Tell the position players it’s on them to step it up.
Pre-season I pegged this to be our best ever offense. I’m dumbfounded. So much talent and depth. On top of the injuries, I think that wonky start to the season with the Covid-postponed series, a bunch of rainouts and scheduled off days messed with the rhythm. I also think having so many guys on the IL has a multi-pronged negative impact. Aside from missing the talent, we’re forced to elevate weak players who don’t belong in the majors. Also, the remaining healthy guys are not getting the protection they’re used to and hence not seeing the pitches they’re looking for. I believe this offense will turn it around. Conforto is streaky. McNeil is a mystery. Dom, Pete, and Lindor will turn it around and having Nimmo on base a bunch will help, as will adding another righty power bat to the lineup in Davis to balance things out. Lots of baseball left to be played. I still see this as a 90+ win team.
Funny thing is, with all the offensive struggles, I think this team’s biggest need at the trade deadline is a starting pitcher. Aside from the Red Sox, Astros and Reds (?!) most teams are not hitting this year. Lots of perennial All-Stars are hitting .240, not just the ones wearing Mets hats.
The Mets offense is built for the homerun and driving the ball the gaps for extra base hits. Their not doing that and their slugging percentages, the S in OPS, are down . Comparing career slugging percentage to 2021 results, I found the following:
Lindor (-125), Smith (-100), Alonso (-68), Conforto (-157) and McNeil (-144).
I don’t know why this massive under-performance exists but I think it is an aberration because the players mentioned are in their prime. It is frustrating now but when they start slugging near their career standards then they will be an elite team. There is no to need to blow up this first place team but there is a need for patience.