In Saturday’s game against the Yankees, Pete Alonso was aggressive right from the first pitch. He came to the plate five times and swung at the first pitch each time up. Since he went 0-4 with a strikeout, it was fair to wonder if he was being too aggressive. But the numbers certainly make it okay for Alonso to attack the first pitch. This season, in 49 PA where he put the first pitch in play, Alonso has a .354/.347/.750 line. He has 9 XBH, including 5 HR.
In his last five games, Alonso has come to the plate 20 times and has swung at the first pitch in 13 of those trips to the plate. He’s put the ball in play five times and has two hits, both of those being homers. The problem is that the eight times he swung at the first pitch and didn’t put the ball in play, Alonso is 0-6 with a walk and a HBP.
Most every batter fares worse when the count is 0-1, rather than 1-0, and Alonso is no exception. When the count starts 1-0, Alonso has an .867 OPS, compared to a .634 OPS when he begins it at 0-1. So, you definitely want Alonso to be swinging at pitches in the strike zone, especially those middle-in that he can drive out of the park. Has every first pitch he’s swung at recently fit this pattern? No, not exactly.
It’s impossible to say what the optimum approach is to swinging at the first pitch. You want pitchers to know that you’re ready to pull the trigger, that get-me-over strikes will be punished. But you can’t expand the zone on the first pitch. Since Alonso has a .354 AVG when putting the ball in play on the first pitch, we can’t criticize the results. But it was tough to watch three foul balls and a swinging strike yesterday.
WINS ARE A TEAM STAT – With starting pitchers going fewer innings seemingly each year, most people understand that it’s not a good way to judge the effectiveness of a starter by his wins total. Hopefully your starter gives you innings and you win more times than not when he’s on the mound. In 2021, the Mets are 12-3 in the 15 games started by Taijuan Walker, even though Walker’s record is 7-3. There’s no easy way that jumps to mind to see what a team’s record is for a particular starter, other than to go to that starter’s B-R page and look at his game logs. So, here are the pitchers and seasons that jumped to mind to check:
1988 David Cone (20-3) – Team: 27-8
1985 Dwight Gooden (24-4) – Team: 28-7
1969 Tom Seaver (25-7) – Team: 26-10
2012 R.A. Dickey (20-6) – Team: 22-12
1986 Bob Ojeda (18-5) – Team: 23-9
It’s certainly possible that some other pitcher who didn’t get a gaudy win total ended up with a team record as good or better as the five guys listed above. But after years of watching brilliant pitching by Jacob deGrom, only to watch the team struggle to play .500 ball on the days that he’s pitched, it’s wonderful to see the team wins pile up when Walker takes the mound.
WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY? – James McCann got off to a brutal start offensively for the Mets, one that was so bad that it was fair to wonder if the Mets’ front office was having buyer’s remorse on the four-year deal they gave him. After 126 PA, McCann sat with a .514 OPS and wasn’t the subject of massive booing from the fan base only because of the equally bad start that Francisco Lindor underwent at the same time. But in his last 110 PA, McCann has an .894 OPS. Now, that comes with a .456 BABIP, so it’s only a matter of time before the hits stop falling in. But after watching a pathetic start to his Mets career, this is a refreshing change, regardless of the sustainability of it all.
ENJOYING THE RIDE ON THE LOUP – After getting two solid or better years from lefty Justin Wilson, the Mets let Wilson leave as a free agent, in order to sign Aaron Loup. Much like when they inked Wilson, it was the type of move that didn’t excite the fan base. Sure, he had been a reliable reliever for a number of years. But it just seemed curious that what Wilson did in Queens didn’t earn him another contract. But Wilson has not been good this year with the Yankees and Loup has been one of the club’s top relievers.
Loup’s done this despite a usage pattern that can best be described as all over the map. He’s been used four times in five days and he’s gone nine days between appearances. Five times he’s been used for fewer than three batters and he’s also been used for a three-inning appearance. But no matter what Luis Rojas throws at him, Loup has handled it.
When he was used three times in four days, Loup allowed 4 R in 1.2 IP. But since then, he’s been lights out. In his last 12 games, he’s amassed 12.1 IP and hasn’t allowed a run. In that span, he’s allowed 6 H and a BB and has notched 16 Ks. There’s been some low leverage appearances in here but it seems very likely that Rojas will use Loup in tighter situations going forward, especially with Miguel Castro’s struggles.
ANOTHER JUNE TO FORGET – One of the popular baseball terms is a “June swoon,” typically given to clubs who start the season off hot, before reality sets in during the season’s third month. But with the Mets, it doesn’t seem to matter if the team is playing good or playing bad – the record in June is never good. Here’s how the club has done in June the past 10 years:
2021: 15-15
2020 – woops
2019: 10-18
2018: 5-21
2017: 14-14
2016: 12-15
2015: 12-15
2014: 11-17
2013: 11-15
2012: 15-13
That’s a total of 105-143 (.423) with only one winning record and that was 10 years ago. And who can forget 2012, Dickey’s CY Award season, the year where the Mets were right in it at the All-Star break but Sandy Alderson refused to trade for the relief pitcher they so desperately needed. That year it fell apart in July, rather than June. Regardless, as Mets fans we’re happy to see the calendar turn to July.
What we teach to young hitters is to “box up” the first pitch. That means you look for a pitch in a small box in your zone, your optimum zone, otherwise you let the first pitch go. Too often I see players intent on swinging early hit non-optimum pitches, making weak contact or falling behind in the count… totally counter-productive. McNeil comes mostly to mind.
If you swing at the first pitch, it’s the perfect pitch and you can hit it hard… that’s the only outcome that’s tenable.
If both McNeil and Alonso get really disciplined “boxing up” first pitches, they will become far more effective as well as send the message to opposing pitching to pitch more carefully, allowing them to get more consistently ahead in the count.
Great comment Wobbit.
In the beginning of June there was a major concern that the Mets would swoon because of their injuries and they were not beating teams that had above .500 records. The thought was that if they would just tread water maybe could positioned themselves to compete for the division. The June 15-15 record and remaining first place every day in June was an accomplishment.
Loup is having a good year and should be used in high pressure situations. The pecking for pressure situations should be, right now, Diaz ,Lugo, May/ Loup, Familia, Smith, Castro and Y. Diaz. Bullpen should be fluid throughout the year with the pecking order. A good manager will adjust his pecking order and manage the circumstances in the game. Lugo in a five run game is questionable.
I thought it was silly to use Lugo in the mop up role in game one. Any pitcher could have handled a five-run lead with one inning to play. Rojas’s use of the bullpen is still a weakness as I see it.
Except for the homer to Ursela, Oswalt was dealing… throwing consistently down and hard, getting hosed on almost a half a dozen strikes at the knees by a stubborn umpire. Oswalt is becoming very viable in my eyes. We still need another lefty… Loup tries my patience sometimes…