Looking at the records of teams when the Mets actually played them

Much like a batter never hits consistently throughout the season, a team is never the same through all 162 contests. When you play a team makes all of the difference in the world. The Mets are getting ready to face the Pirates in seven straight games surrounding the All-Star break. For most of the year, the Pirates have been lousy. They are 22 games below .500 at 32-54. But in their last 19 games, they’re 9-10. The Nationals got to play the Pirates when they had lost their last seven games and proceeded to sweep them. But Pittsburgh comes in having won a series against Atlanta and playing its best ball of the season.

Baseball-Reference, under its pitching splits page, gives a team’s record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 and above, as well as against teams with a losing record. The Mets are 37-28 against teams with a losing record and 8-10 against those with a .500 or better mark. But this is a bit misleading. These records are calculated by what the opposition’s record is on today’s date, not when the clubs actually played.

The Mets had their first series of the year postponed, as the Nats were dealing with a Covid issue. It was less than ideal because it meant fitting in games later in the season. But it works out well for what we’re about to do here, because each series they’ve played, they’ve faced a team with a record. What follows is what a team was like when the Mets actually played them. We’ll use a team’s record at the start of the series to determine their record. We’ll also note in some instances if the record didn’t match how they’re playing recently, like with the Pirates, or if they’re particularly hot or cold when the series starts.

4/5 – Phillies (3-0). Mets went 1-2 against a team with a record above .500 when they played
4/8 – Marlins (1-5). Mets went 1-1 against team with losing record when they played
4/13 – Phillies (6-3). Mets went 3-0 against team with winning record
4/17 – Rockies (3-10). Mets went 2-1 against team with losing record
4/20 – Cubs (6-9). Mets got swept against team with losing record
4/23 – Nats (7-9). Nats came in having won four of their last six but Mets went 2-1
4/27 – Red Sox (14-9). Mets held the Red Sox to three runs but went 0-2
4/30 – Phillies (12-13). Mets went 2-1
5/3 – Cardinals (16-12). Cards came in going 8-2 in last 10. Mets went 2-2
5/7 – D’Backs (15-16). Mets went 3-0
5/11 – Orioles (16-19). Mets went 2-0
5/14 – Rays (20-19). Mets went 0-3
5/17 – Braves (19-21). Mets 5/31 -went 2-1
5/21 – Marlins (20-23). Mets went 1-2
5/24 – Rockies (18-29). Rockies came in 6-5 in their last 11. Mets went 3-1
5/29 – Braves (24-25). Braves came in 5-2 in last seven. Mets went 1-0
5/31 – D’Backs (19-35). D’Backs came in 2-16 in last 18. Mets went 2-1
6/3 – Padres (34-23). Padres came in having lost four straight. Mets went 2-2
6/8 – Orioles (21-38). Orioles came in 4-1 in last five. Mets went 1-1
6/11 – Padres (37-27). Padres came in 1-4 in last five. Mets went 2-1
6/14 – Cubs (38-27). Cubs came in 5-0 in last five. Mets went 3-1
6/18 – Nats (30-35). Nats 6-2 in last eight. Mets went 1-3
6/21 – Braves (33-36). Mets went 2-2
6/25 – Phillies (34-37). Mets went 2-2
6/28 – Nats (37-38). Nats came in 11-2 in last 13. Mets went 0-1
6/29 – Braves (37-40). Mets went 1-2
7/3 – Yankees (41-39). Yankees came in 1-5 in last six. Mets went 2-1
7/5 – Brewers (51-34). Brewers came in 11-1 in last 12. Mets went 2-1

At the times the Mets played them, they were 17-15 against teams with a winning record. As you can see, that’s different from the “official” 8-10 mark against teams .500 or better. The “official” mark looks like they haven’t played many winning teams when in reality they’ve played nearly twice as many games against good teams if you look at the record when they played.

Furthermore, they’ve only played teams more than five games below .500 four times in 28 series. So, they may be playing teams below .500 but these teams are competitive. And two of those four series against the dregs came when those teams were playing better than their record indicated. When they faced a Rockies team that was 11 games below .500, the Rockies had won six of their last 11 games. And when they played an Orioles team that was 17 games below .500, Baltimore came in winning four of their last five. The Mets will have that same thing in their last series before the break when they host the Pirates.

To be sure, the Mets faced both the Padres and Yankees at a good time. Those two teams had winning records but came in to face the Mets while struggling. And the Mets took advantage, going 6-4 in those three series. It makes winning the series against a red-hot Milwaukee team look all the more impressive.

Right now, games the Mets played against the Phillies, Cardinals and Cubs are counted as games against teams under .500 when in reality they were above that mark when they played. And it’s likely teams in this category will change multiple times between now and the end of the year. It would be a shock if one or more teams besides the Mets in the East didn’t finish above .500 when the season ended. None of those games against the Braves or Nats currently count as contests against teams with a winning record. But in the “official” mark at the end of the year, it could very well be 19 or even 38 “extra” games show up in the final ledger.