During and after the 2020 season, Michael Conforto was everybody’s darling. Thanks to the long Covid interruption, Conforto’s oblique injury did not cause him to miss any time. And the hamstring injury that came late in the season only kept him from a couple of games. And while he was in the lineup, he was terrific. The only problem was the unsustainable .412 BABIP. Well, the hamstring injury reared its ugly head again for Conforto in 2021, this time early in the season where it made him miss considerable time. And the hit gods have not smiled on Conforto this year, as he enters play on Friday with a .269 BABIP. After putting up a 157 wRC+ in 2020, Conforto has an 87 mark in the category here in 2021.
The lesson here is to ignore BABIP at your own risk. There were some people who were extremely concerned that the Mets didn’t sign Conforto to an extension before this year started, figuring that 2020 was a new level for Conforto, one we should expect going forward. Those people look pretty silly right now.
My concern is that those same people who thought Conforto was the best thing going have now jumped on the Brandon Nimmo bandwagon.
Nimmo has long been one of my favorites and in one way it’s nice to see a large portion of the fan base finally beginning to appreciate him. But on the other hand, favorite or not, you have to objectively look at the player and try to determine if what he’s doing is real or the product of good fortune. If Conforto’s .412 BABIP last year was unsustainable, what does that make Nimmo’s current .483 mark?
The hits are falling in at a remarkable rate for Nimmo. And if we’re being honest, his overall numbers should be better with a BABIP at that level. Nimmo’s 12.6 BB% would be a good total for most players. But it’s his worst mark since his MLB debut in 2016. Some might not be worried with the decrease in walks. If the hits are falling in, they figure, why not swing the bat?
The idea behind being selective and taking pitches is to wait for one that you can drive and do damage. Walks are a happy by-product of the approach. The trouble is that while Nimmo is getting lots of hits, the majority of them are singles. From 2018-2020, a stretch that included trying to play thru the neck injury in ’19, Nimmo had a .208 ISO. This year, he sits with a .114 ISO, a frightening dropoff from where he’s been recently.
It’s possible that the finger injury that sidelined Nimmo has drained him of some power. And now we find he has a shoulder issue, too. Nimmo was not going to be in the lineup Thursday before rain washed the game out. It will be curious to see if he plays today, or at all before the All-Star break.
Now’s a good time to point out that Nimmo’s baserunning hasn’t been as good this year, either. On the flip side, his defense has been better than what it was in 2020. Last year, he played 308.1 innings in center field and had a (-5) DRS. This year in 156.1 innings in center, he has a (-1) DRS. His UZR/150 was (-19.2) last year and so far this year, it checks in at (-13.5) – both systems agree he’s been better than last year and they agree what’s keeping him from being an average center fielder is his arm.
But with Nimmo, it’s always going to be a case of wanting him for offense and living with what he gives you on defense. At least until he can move into a corner spot, preferably left field where his arm won’t be as big of an issue.
One thing that seems odd, at least to me, is how consistent Nimmo has been offensively when he’s been healthy. Ignoring 2019 when he had the neck problems, here are Nimmo’s wRC+ numbers since 2018: 148, 148 and 147 this season. Given his BABIP, you would expect his wRC+ this year to be in the 160s or 170s. But the drop in both walks and power has put him where he seemingly has always been.
And maybe that’s the silver lining in all of this. When the hits stop falling in for him at this remarkable rate, perhaps Nimmo can continue to be an All-Star level hitter if the walks and power return to his previous levels. But until that happens, we have to view what Nimmo has done here in 2021 with a suspicious eye, no different than Conforto in 2020.
Like a lot of things that we watch and measure, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. Players and teams go through periods of hot and cold, and largely live somewhere in between.
I anticipated that Conforto, McNeil, and Nimmo would all go through a readjustment after their long layoffs, and one hopes that it will not be prolonged. While one might expect a 2-for-25 period, one hopes it does not become a 4-for-50 spell.
Nimmo delighted us all with starting out super hot, and we’d all like to think that he’s that player. I, however, suspected that he is not quite that All-Star caliber player, and I waited to see signs of his cooling off. His “adjustment period”, like McNeil and Conforto, might be descending open him now… just as McNeil, perhaps, starts to get his swing together.
Conforto is another story. His injury propensity seems to always interrupt a streak of good hitting and bounces him back to square one, which really hurts his numbers.. Short story: this guy is losing a ton of future money every day. Unless he catches fire and has a second half for the ages, he might be better served to take the Mets’ QO and just live a life of a very wealthy athlete, if not mega-wealthy. He certainly holds great potential, but eventually the numbers have to match the potential, and his body might prevent the ever happening.
While Nimmo’s BABIP has helped to offset the reduced walk rate, hopefully when the BABIP inevitably stabilizes at a more normal level, the walk rate will as well. The power drop is what has me more concerned. As Brian said, it may be the finger or shoulder, but I’d like to see a return to closer to career norms in ISO. I’m a little worried on the power side. With all that said, I’d like to see the Mets extend him.
To Wobbit’s point about Conforto, I’ve started thinking about whether he’s better off accepting a QO and trying to reestablish his value. If he has a second half like his first though, I don’t know that the Mets would even extend it. It will be interesting to see this play out, especially with Boras as his agent.
We baseball fans, along with all sports fans, are always bandwagon jumping. And, as an extension of that mentality, in MLB and Metsland we are always ready to spend someone else’s money to extend the guy doing well now. Conforto or Nimmo, Nimmo or Conforto…let me check last night’s box score and I’ll tell you….
Both of these guys have a lot in common – Alderson first round picks that made it, lefties, outfielders, northwestern guys more or less. Both have had their share of injuries and we can now add to the list both have had some wild BABIPs to muddy the waters even further. One has a bit more power, the other a better batting eye. Both have flaws but can be viewed as above average players in their prime. A team can certainly use both, but given the Mets’ core of controllable players, they are kind of redundant. The question for the Mets is simply who provides more value over time, both in the near term and in the future. Nimmo is both more affordable and controllable one more season. Conforto’s agent is Boras and it is known that his price tag is too high. I like them both and would be happy with either staying through their prime. For 2022, can they get more value with Conforto or elsewhere? Does Nimmo have more value to the team or as a trade chip? The Mets are in the driver’s seat, and with a wealthy owner, they can afford to wait, and well should.
I think you trade Conforto before he walks to get something in return if you’re not going to try to keep him. Gotta replace him with a quality OF, hopefully Starling Marte or someone of that caliber. Dumping Conforto means more room for Dom Smith to remain with the team.
Given Conforto’s injury absences, there are likely a lot of corner outfielders who can replace him numbers on the offense. Go the trade route, go the free agent route… Kris Bryant presents a lot of possibility… can play everywhere effectively. Besides Crow-Armstrong, I’m not aware of OF prospect on the radar.
I’d like to see an article sometime of all the “non-star” outfielders who realistically match Conforto’s productivity… I know they are out there.