Tylor Megill’s pitch counts, the overworked bullpen, the return of J.D. Davis

Last night’s loss was crushing. In a way, it’s 21st Century baseball in a nutshell. The starting pitcher was cruising but because he was approaching the 100-pitch boogeyman, he was removed from the game. Tylor Megill had pitched six shutout innings and his pitch count stood at 93. His spot in the order was due up in the seventh inning and the Mets sent up a pinch-hitter. In his previous four games in the majors, Megill had twice thrown 92 pitches. Also, he’s 25 years old, so although he’s a rookie, he’s on the older side of things.

We all want to protect pitchers. But there’s absolutely no evidence that 93 is a safe total of pitches yet it’s a crime against humanity if a starter is allowed to throw 113. And somehow, we accept that it’s okay to protect starters but at the same time, relievers are hung out to dry and no one gives it a second thought. Edwin Diaz throws 24 pitches and Seth Lugo throws 26 and the expectation is that, if needed, they should pitch Sunday and at worse they should be 100% refreshed by Monday.

Beyond the pitch-count madness is a philosophical issue that doesn’t get nearly enough attention. How are you trying to win games? In the last century, it was to ride your starting pitcher as long as you can. Somehow, that’s evolved – or rather devolved – into having your starter go thru the lineup two times and then look for any reason to turn the game over to your bullpen, no matter how your starter is doing nor how rested your pen is for that game.

It’s paint-by-numbers managing, designed more to CYA than it is to win games.

BULLPEN CRACKS UNDER HEAVY USAGE – In a related story, the bullpen that was so good earlier in the season has been less than stellar over the past two weeks or so. In the last 14 days, here are the ERAs of the “good” relievers for the Mets:

4.50 – Trevor May
5.40 – Miguel Castro
6.23 – Drew Smith
7.36 – Jeurys Familia
11.57 – Lugo
12.60 – Diaz

That sextet has combined for 25 IP and 23 ER over the past two weeks. It’s normal for relievers to go thru stretches where they are bad. It’s not normal for six relievers to be bad at the same time. It’s possible that it’s just a coincidence. It’s also a potential outcome that looking for a reason to go to the bullpen as soon as possible inevitably leads to these kinds of results.

DAVIS SHINES IN RETURN TO THE LINEUP – We all know how the Mets have struggled for offense for most of the year. It didn’t help that their two most productive hitters spent the most time on the IL. J.D. Davis was the team’s best hitter and he was out the longest. It was only 48 PA for Davis but he had a 1.089 OPS when he went on the IL for the second time on May 1. Davis was activated at the start of the second half and struck out as a pinch-hitter on Friday. But he was in the starting lineup on Saturday and went 3-for-4 with two homers.

So many people are marveling over Jonathan Villar and his 102 OPS+ – suggesting that he shouldn’t lose any playing time to Davis. That’s just ludicrous. You can reject Davis’ 238 OPS+ in 2021 as a 53-PA fluke. It’s not so easy to dismiss Davis’ 136 OPS+ in 758 PA as a Met. There are not many teams that are in a position to give up roughly 30 points of OPS+ and the 2021 Mets are certainly not one of the exceptions.

And while the Mets missed Davis, they missed Brandon Nimmo, too. Nimmo was out from May 3 to July 2. Since returning to the Mets on July 3, Nimmo has put up an .877 OPS in 51 PA. And while it’s been BABIP-heavy, last night Nimmo had three walks and a homer. Center fielders besides Nimmo for the Mets this year have a .205/.257/.349 line in 231 PA. Nimmo has an .873 OPS as a CF and the other guys who’ve manned center this year for the Mets have a combined .606 line. Now, that’s not as bad as Jackie Bradley Jr.’s .531 OPS but it’s still pretty awful.

HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN – To make room for Davis on the roster, the Mets DFA’d Billy McKinney, who turned a brief hot streak into cult status and had some thinking his presence would allow the Mets to let Michael Conforto walk as a free agent without batting an eye.

At the start of 2021, McKinney had a .619 OPS in 100 PA with the Brewers. Then, in his first 17 games with the Mets, McKinney notched a .991 OPS in 62 PA. Unfortunately, it turned midnight and in his final 40 trips to the plate as a Met, McKinney managed just a .447 OPS. McKinney’s got some skills and if no one claimed him, the Mets should absolutely re-sign him for Syracuse. But he’s a fifth outfielder with some pop. The timing of his hot start was wonderful for the Mets. But it was nothing more than a two-week hot streak.

STROMAN’S RECENT STRUGGLES – In his first 14 games this season, Marcus Stroman had a 2.35 ERA in 84.1 IP. In his next start, he came out after just one inning due to left hip soreness. Since that time, Stroman has made four starts and, in that span, he has a 5.00 ERA, thanks to 10 ER in 18 IP. He’s also allowed 4 UER in this time frame.

Before the break, my speculation was that Stroman was pitching thru an injury. But when he started the first game of the second half, that trepidation went away. But we find that deGrom will miss his next start and Taijuan Walker had his pushed back due to his All-Star appearance. So maybe the injury is still a factor and the reason that Stroman got the initial start of the second half was due more to avoid a bullpen game than any kind of verdict on Stroman being 100% healthy.