The New York Mets, at 51-43, continue to sit atop the division seemingly against all odds when considering the number of injuries they’ve endured. Despite being near the top of the league in number of players and total days spent on the injured list (not to mention total salary), the team has managed to stave off the rest of the disappointing National League East to maintain their lead.
The story for most of the first half of the season was how the stellar performance of the pitching staff, particularly the starting rotation, had been carrying an offense that was dramatically underperforming the high expectations many had heading into the 2021 campaign. Since I last wrote about the dreadful team offense on May 22nd, and particularly in the last month, that dynamic has shifted a bit.
On May 22nd, the Mets’ starting pitcher xFIP- of 77 trailed only the Dodgers, while their offense’s below-average wRC+ of 86 put them at 23rd in baseball. Still, they led a weak division with a record of 21-18. Since then, the starting staff has performed to the tune of an 88 xFIP- (tied for first) while the offense has upped their game with a wRC+ of 104 (tied for 10th). The team went 30-25 over that 55 game span, which is essentially in line with their winning percentage when the offense was missing in action.
Don’t let the 11-point reduction in xFIP- fool you, though. As mentioned above, that 88 still has them tied at the top of all of baseball in the midst of what appears to be a correction of sorts to the offense/pitching imbalance across the sport this season. Generally speaking, and based on the current raw numbers, that 104 wRC+ is the more concerning issue and more in need of bolstering should the team hope to maintain their division lead and make meaningful noise in the playoffs.
Of course that doesn’t take into account the immediate reality that their starting pitching depth has rapidly fallen apart and is suddenly in desperate need of help. Jacob deGrom has experienced a multitude of increasingly concerning maladies and is currently on the injured list, David Peterson is still out for the foreseeable future, and the team’s depth starters have been plagued with short- and long-term injuries of their own. It’s unclear when Noah Syndergaard or Carlos Carrasco will return, and so the team approaches the deadline with some serious question marks surrounding their floundering rotation. Rookie Tylor Megill has been unexpectedly fantastic, though the team certainly can’t expect such a performance to continue, and the recent acquisition of Rich Hill is the definition of a band-aid move.
The Mets’ current .543 winning percentage would put them at about 88 wins to end the season, which may be enough to win the East this year but likely won’t be enough to take either wildcard should they be surpassed by a division rival. Of course, even maintaining that pace would be a lot to ask of the patchwork rotation that is delving ever deeper into its quickly evaporating depth.
This all leads to a very important question: where should the Mets focus the bulk of their efforts at the trade deadline? With Francisco Lindor now injured, that’s another hit to a lineup that still hasn’t quite hit its stride. Should the team focus on adding an impact bat to bolster what’s been its most unexpected weak point of the season? Should they instead focus their time and resources on nabbing a high-quality starter with so many unanswered questions marks surrounding the rotation?
The easy answer, at least at the moment, would appear to be starting pitching. The worst case scenario is that deGrom continues to battle injuries, while Syndergaard and Carrasco never make it back. With their top-level depth basically already exhausted for the season, that puts the team at a severe disadvantage even if they’re able to hold onto the division. If the rotation gets back on track and healthy, however, a starting five of deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, Syndergaard, and Carrasco seems insanely unfair to the rest of the league. At that point, the team may regret not snagging that impact bat or perhaps a bullpen piece for a deep playoff run.
Acting General Manager Zack Scott has already confirmed that the rotation will be a priority as we approach the deadline, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that a starting pitcher is where the team will look to make the “splash” they are reportedly looking to make. If the team feels confident that the rotation simply needs to weather the current storm, they may want to add some much-needed insurance to their underwhelming lineup. It takes two to tango on any trade deal, obviously, and the moves the Mets do make will be based on what players are available and at what price. Still, it’s a tough decision for a front office with a new and incredibly wealthy owner looking to take his new ball club to the next level.
Where do you think the team should make this so-called “splash?” The rotation? The lineup? Neither?
Starting pitchers. While Rich Hill has made all his starts, his recent drop off in performance is alarming. Does he have anything left in the tank or is he also the “victim” of the “sticky substance” conspiracy? Still, he’ll be better then trotting out our 2nd & 3rd tier relief pitchers as openers in the weeks to come.
Don’t sell Tylor Meghill short……there was nothing about deGrom’s minor league numbers and pedigree that predicted the pitcher he would become. If memory serves me correctly, the Mets were much more enamored with his fellow call-up Montero. If nothing else, he’ll be at least the pitcher we all thought Peterson was suppose to be.
I also expect a front-line starter to be signed this week as I still feel that hoping for anything from *Carrasco or *Syndergaard this year is wishful thinking.
* best case scenario is getting in shape and staying healthy for some decent September (and hopefully) playoff pitching.
Megill is the symbol for the season… he’s Tug McGraw! I mean, whatttt?
The Mets win every game he pitches, and finally he got his first win yesterday… He’s on the board and might steal all the ink from the established guys if the Mets somehow stay afloat, and I believe they will. They have the feel of a team-of-destiny.
I’m really enjoying watching Villar and Guillorme in the infield, and Pete seems very relaxed and is maturing before our eyes. The HR Derby experience seems to have been stabilizing and empowering, excuse the puns…
Now if Dom can reach a level that represents his ability, and Conforto can climb to something respectable, with JD now in the fold, the Mets are a tough out. I worry less about the pitching than most of you… seems Hefner is on top of it and the smoke and mirrors are holding firm.
We take it one series at a time, but the Mets seem formidable.
Pitching. There isnt an obvious upgrade to the lineup or defense at the moment unless you think Bryant will produce more than JD or you think getting Kimbrel in a package with him puts us ober the top (may be in that scenario but Kimbrel would be the key there). One starting pitcher and 2 relievers oughta solidify things from here.
Pitching.
1. Pitching
2. Pitching
3. Pitching
4. Pitching
No one should count on any genuine production from Syndergaard or Carrasco. These guys haven’t seen live MLB hitters in ages and are coming off long duration injuries. I think of you get anything it’s a plus, like a few short starts here and there. Neither are gonna be throwing 90 pitches and picking up where they left off. I would not count on any significant games in the post season for either.
We know there is some black magic that the hitters can turn to and hit well. Usually, and unfortunately, it’s mostly against lousy pitching. But the starters are *desperate* this very minute. The boat sinks if that hole isn’t plugged.
As for Tylor Megill being the savior. Wait…wasn’t that Peterson…this year guy has something like 5 innings above AA before making the show. Maybe it’s a bit much to say he’s a done deal MLB-level starter.
I don’t think Kris Bryant is enough of an upgrade to warrant the potential cost. I can live with the offense as it stands, especially if Conforto can return to anything close to what he has been. Dom also has to join in to support Pete in the middle.
Pete is still blossoming as a hitter
JD can still have a breakout half-season.
Nimmo clearly the best he’s ever been.
Villar has to avoid a slump… is Lindor that much better?
Guillorme is proving he’s legit, contact hitter.
I’ve stopped counting on McNeil offensively…
McCann is all bonus.
Pillar a great 4th OF for this team… clutch guy.
All in all, I like the offense… especially if we get the long ball as consistently.
Get pitching if you want post-season success.
I agree with your first and last paragraphs. As for the middle I differ on a few points. Nimmo is basically doing exactly what he’s always done albeit with a bit less power. Yes, Lindor is much better than Villar. And don’t give up on McNeil. He’s not having a good year but he’s been an outstanding offensive player throughout his career. I know you wanted to replace him with Perazza at one point but they are not close.
1. starting pitcher
2. reliever
3. versatile everyday player
Aside from concern about the guys on the IL, I don’t trust Walker (not known for his durability and looks shaky in last two starts) or Stroman (didn’t pitch last year) to remain healthy all season. The Mets absolutely need a starting pitcher. With Stroman and Syndergaard coming up on free agency, I’d love to get a guy like Berrios or Hendricks, but we at least need a reliable back of the rotation guy. With all the long stretches without a day off and double headers, it makes sense to move to a 6-man rotation at least for a while. If we have 6 or 7 healthy starters at some point, we can always move one to the pen. No more bullpen games and please, no more Jerad Eickhoff starts. May as well forfeit or put a pitching machine on the mound.
Pitching.
Berrios for Mauricio. The Twins are looking for a top 100 prospect and a shortstop and a second tier prospect. Berrios had 1.33 years of team control. They can offer him an qualifying offer in 2022 and get a draft choice if he refuses the QO . He would be insurance in case Syndergaard and/ or Stroman don’t sign this winter. Mauricio is blocked by Lindor. This trade makes sense.