As the season has reached about 100 games, the Mets are leading the division by four games. To date, the Mets have been led by outstanding pitching from Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman, Francisco Lindor’s defense, and a group of replacement players playing like average players. They have also just been hammered by the injury monster, with deGrom being shut down for forearm tightness, David Peterson moving from an oblique injury to breaking his foot walking last week, Lindor picking up an oblique strain, and so on.
According to Sportrac, the Mets, to date, have had the most players on the IL, the fifth most total days missed, and at the third most salary spent on IL players. As Peterson went on the IL, the news regarding Carlos Carrasco improved. He appears to be close to joining the Mets. With Lindor not on a timetable to return yet, and Noah Syndergaard not expected until September, the Mets will need considerable good fortune the next 66 games.
The best news coming out of the All-Star break is Pete Alonso winning the Home Run hitting contest, and seemingly finding his stroke, posting 1.300 OPS since the season re-started. The Mets are scoring 5.7 runs per game, up significantly since the first half of the season. Ok, the runs allowed is also up over five runs.
The Mets picked up Rich Hill to throw innings, and they will need it. Pre-season the Mets rotation was going to be deGrom, Stroman, Walker, Peterson and Carrasco. This week it will be Stroman, TBD, TBD, Tylor Megill, Walker, Hill. The offense is going to have to carry a tremendous load, or the Mets will need to be surprised by the pitching.
The Mets offense isn’t without hope, but Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeill will need to perform at their normal levels, rather than well below average. Regressing to the mean in this instance would be an improvement. Is there a trade to be made? Putting too much faith in the role players’ performances thus far would be a mistake, so the bats will have to come alive to make up for the defensive shortcomings behind a pitching staff with no aces.
The outlook may not be all that bad. The Mets playoff odds are still strong. The chances have been strong all season, and the Mets have gotten to first place while playing most games on the road. This was noted early when the season was in turmoil with rainouts and COVID postponements, and now the Mets have a 36-30 home-game advantage. Baseball Reference’s playoff odds are not as favorable but is calculated in a different manner. It is tough to tell which way better incorporates the Mets injury woes. Nonetheless, even with the lower playoff odds, the Mets are still the National League East favorites.
It is not definitive, but the Mets are also favored on Fanduel, as well as being in a strong position for the World Series. Betting lines are not everything and will change if the Mets replacement team cannot keep up.
The next five games are against Atlanta, while the Phillies square off against the Nationals. The Braves have their own injury problems, so this series could move the needle, and buy time for the Mets injury list. One positive outlook for the prognosticators: getting well-rested pitchers for the August-September stretch is a definite plus. If Carrasco and deGrom can get back on the mound in early August and the struggling Mets can just perform to their norm, the Mets can make it to 90 wins, and make the playoffs.
Many good points made, Chris.
We also shouldn’t overlook how important Brandon Nimmo’s contribution has been at leadoff and in CF: .304/.427/.422/138 OPS+/1.4 oWar/0.4 dWar.
Nimmo has been fielding better, but anytime the sample size is that small, it doesn’t mean so much, but those are good plays in the bank.
Mets are clearly the favorite in the NLEast. Having built the lead with largely bench players, they should see enough run production to counter whatever adjustments their pitching encounters.
Nimmo is playing his best baseball, period. There’s a chance his 1 for 20 cold streak demon is lurking, but he seems more confident at the plate, and is hitting left-handers.
Pete is just a beast… really finding himself.
Dom, I believe will finish strong.
JD can have a monster second half.
Please don’t overestimate Lindor’s contribution. This is a down year by every estimation. He damn well better do far better in the future.
I’ll take it, first place,four game lead, probably reinforcements coming,Braves and Phil’s don’t look too good. But 13 games against Dodgers and Giants coming up.
Yes, it is surprising, to me, to see Fangraphs still giving the Mets such a big percentage, in spite of their remaining games difficulty, but perhaps that is more than offset by the home field advantage.
I didn’t find this info before I finished, but the Mets have already used 55 players, and *16* starting pitchers. 16!