Thinking short-term and long-term at the same time with the Mets

One of the biggest challenges for managers, GMs and, yes, even fans is to think both short-term and long-term at the same time. We’re at one of those critical times now with the trade deadline. It’s very appealing to think about adding a big starting pitcher or a late-inning reliever or a righty bat with some thump. But none of those guys are going to come cheap and is this the right time to push all of your trade chits into the middle?

The Mets have navigated an unbelievable number of injuries, both to their hitters and pitchers, yet still sit in first place. But seven of their eight hitters are back and it looks like with the trade for Rich Hill and the imminent activation of Carlos Carrasco, to go along with just one remaining doubleheader on 9/4, that the days of TBA as the next day’s starting pitcher are over.

Any trade the Mets make between now and the trade deadline has to be looked at in two different ways. The first is: How likely is the acquisition going to make the difference in making it to the playoffs? And the second is: How likely is the acquisition going to make the difference in advancing in the playoffs?

It’s very likely that the Mets are going to have to win the East to make the playoffs. Currently, they have a four-game lead over the second-place Phillies. The Mets likely have a tougher schedule, with 14 games left to play against the Dodgers and Giants. But the Mets will also get to play those games much closer to full strength than if they had played those clubs in May. And unlike earlier in the year, the Mets are now hitting much more like we thought they would be entering the season.

After spending three months at the bottom of the league in terms of OPS, the Mets are tied with the Dodgers for first place with a .793 OPS in July. So, yeah, you could trade for someone like Kris Bryant and possibly be a more-productive offense – but is it worth it at the cost of one of your top prospects? The Mets have five prospects who can match just about any other club’s top five. But after that it drops off considerably. Do you want to trade one of those five to get a hitter who’s going to provide just a marginal improvement to a team that’s finally hitting up to expectations?

Moving on to pitching, Tylor Megill gave another solid outing yesterday, with great results, if not the length you’d hope to get. With Carrasco coming back, Megill is your fourth starter. When Jacob deGrom returns, Megill becomes your fifth starter. In the playoffs, most teams shorten their rotation and only use four starters. While it’s tempting to add a frontline pitcher like Jose Berrios – are you willing to bump either Taijuan Walker or Marcus Stroman to the bullpen to make room for him?

It’s easy to sit on your couch and answer that question. It’s another thing to talk for months about culture and then say “tough break” to either an All-Star or a guy who’s an impending free agent and move them to an unfamiliar position at the most crucial time of the year. At least with Megill, you can say he’s not a guy who’s been here all year and he’s a rookie being dislodged for a veteran with a much-better track record. Stroman and Walker have both been in the majors long enough to reach free agency.

Which leads us to the bullpen. It would be fun to add shut-down closer Craig Kimbrel to the team and you can argue he’s the one guy who would be worth the prospect cost. But what happens to Edwin Diaz, who’s rebounded nicely from his rough patch to post four consecutive saves? Is he mentally strong enough to handle losing the closer’s job? Maybe he is; maybe this is an okay spot to say “tough break,” and deal with the consequences.

But the bullpen is the one area that’s been a strength all year long. There’s also the possibility that the pen will include Hill, Megill and Noah Syndergaard in the playoffs. Do you need to fortify that group?

My assumption is that the team doesn’t need a major trade acquisition – defined as someone they’d have to give up one of their top five prospects – to make the playoffs. And it’s hard for me to say that one of these guys would be the difference in advancing in the playoffs, either.

Now, that doesn’t mean that the Mets can’t focus on a lower-tier player to help them get to the playoffs. Up until now, the bullpen has been overworked because of the injuries to the rotation. It might make sense to add a second-division team’s closer and make him a set-up guy for the final two months of the year. The Pirates’ Rich Rodriguez, who has a 2.82 ERA and a 0.835 WHIP, is an example of this type of pitcher. He wouldn’t usurp Diaz but he’d be a guy to add to the late-inning mix. Of course, it all depends on what the Pirates would want in return.

Up until now, the focus here has been on trade additions. But in this short-term/long-term idea, the Mets are going to have to consider what their roster is going to look like once they make the playoffs. What’s going to be the ideal pitcher/hitter mix? If he keeps up his current hitting, it’s going to be hard to keep Brandon Drury off the roster, regardless of how many hitters they take.