Tylor Megill impresses in his first 11 MLB starts

Tylor Megill has been a bright spot in an otherwise depressing year of pitching stories surrounding the Mets. Not really considered an option to even make the majors this season, Megill has made 11 starts and is a fixture in the rotation at this point. And while his record is just 1-2, the Mets are 7-4 in games he starts. Yesterday, he allowed 1 ER in 6 IP and played a role in the Mets snapping their five-game losing streak, even though he didn’t factor into the decision.

The first thing you notice about Megill is his size, as he’s listed at 6’7, 230 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he weighed more than that. The announcers talk a lot about his calmness on the mound, how he doesn’t get flustered if things don’t go his way. It’s reminiscent of how people described David Peterson a season ago, with the word thrown around then being “poised.”

Of course, Peterson didn’t follow up his strong rookie season with a solid showing this year. Now, Peterson is on the IL and his future seems murky. Will Steve Cohen and the Mets be content with a guy like Peterson as one of their five starters next season? And you can wonder the same thing about Megill, too. Let’s compare 2020 Peterson and 2021 Megill:

DP – 49.2 IP, 3.44 ERA, 126 ERA+, 1.208 WHIP, .644 OPS allowed, .233 BABIP
TM – 56 IP, 3.21 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.161 WHIP, .663 OPS allowed, .293 BABIP

There numbers seem eerily similar, at least until you get to the final one. Peterson had the hit gods smiling upon him last year while Megill was able to put his numbers up with an average BABIP. It’s one of the main reasons that Megill’s FIP is nearly a full run better than Peterson’s was in 2020. While many people were seduced by Peterson’s shiny ERA, he had a 4.52 FIP in 2020. Megill has a 3.56 FIP so far this season.

Essentially a three-pitch hurler, Megill’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and he also throws a slider and a change. He’s dominant against RHB, limiting them to a .493 OPS. Teams have been stacking their lineups with LHB against him, as he has nearly as many PA against lefties (109) as he does righties (123.) And teams are doing that for good reason, as LHB have hit him to the tune of .286/.358/.500 so far in 2021.

It’s a little surprising that LHB are faring so well against Megill. Typically, pitchers use their change to attack batters when they don’t have the platoon advantage and according to FanGraphs’ Pitch Values, the change has been Megill’s best pitch. But sometimes he doesn’t have the best location with it.

All three of these balls were flat and in the middle of the zone. Megill seems to be succeeding with speed difference, rather than movement, with his change. Perhaps that’s something that he can work on in the offseason.

Let’s finish with another comparison, this time to a pitcher more successful than Peterson. We’ll use the same numbers as above, subbing Game Score for ERA+, and compare them to Jacob deGrom in his first 11 starts in the majors:

TM –- 56.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, .663 OPS allowed, .293 BABIP, GSc 55
JdG – 66.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, .712 OPS allowed, .328 BABIP, GSc 54

In a harbinger of things to come, the Mets were just 3-8 in deGrom’s first 11 games. Of course, this wasn’t what we’ve come to expect from deGrom but it was still a very strong debut, much like with Megill. Let’s throw one more number out there. Megill has a 3.56 FIP and deGrom had a 3.40 FIP in his first 11 games.

It’s really not fair to compare any pitcher to deGrom. It’s just that if you’re going to be negative and compare Megill to Peterson, you could just as easily go in the opposite direction.

There’s a lot to like with Megill, beyond the fact that he’s been able to give the Mets a reliable SP at a time they desperately needed one. He throws strikes and it looks like his stuff plays at this level. And with a little refinement with his change, you can even see a path for him to improve upon what he’s already done in the majors his rookie season.