As the Mets seemingly face their worst month of August since 1982, the announcers are looking to anything that can seem even a little positive. So, we get daily updates about the infield practice that Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor take before games. Baez isn’t yet eligible to return from the IL but Lindor can be activated whenever he’s deemed ready. So, what do the Mets do when they return?
Baez was lousy in his brief stint with the Mets but from 2019-2021, he’s been exactly a league-average hitter, with a 100 OPS+ in 1,194 PA. Unfortunately, that’s enough right now to consider him as a starter for the Mets, even though we all know he’s going to start because of what the Mets gave up to get him. Lindor was finally starting to hit when he got injured so we know he’s the everyday shortstop when he returns.
The two injured guys will likely replace Jeff McNeil and Jonathan Villar in the starting lineup.
Incredibly, exactly like Baez, Villar has a 100 OPS+ over the 2019-2021 period, in 1,269 PA. McNeil has been significantly better, with a 125 OPS+ over the last three seasons. The problem is that his trajectory has been awful. Starting in 2019, he’s gone from a 142 to a 129 to a 90 OPS+. Outside of his brief hot stretch, when he put together a double-digit hitting streak, McNeil has not been good this year at all.
Still, the announcers talked about McNeil becoming the Mets’ Ben Zobrist, playing all over the place, including the outfield corners. But hardly any mention of what’s going to happen to Villar. Now, my belief is that McNeil is a better player. But right now, it’s hard to argue that in the immediate short-term view of things, that McNeil gives the Mets a better chance to win.
There’s an old proverb that says: In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. Among a group of inadequate options, one needs only be slightly less inadequate to rise above the group. In a selection of terrible choices, the least terrible is by default the best. Here’s who Villar is competing against to stay in the lineup the last five weeks or so of the 2021 season:
Michael Conforto – .701 OPS
McNeil – .688 OPS
Dominic Smith – .676 OPS
Villar has a .745 OPS so far this year. Now, Conforto has been swinging a much better bat here lately. In his last 60 PA, he has a .315/.383/.519 line. But McNeil has a .425 OPS in the same time frame, while Smith has a .463 mark. McNeil and Smith have both been disappointing through most of the season and they’re stinking up the joint the last fortnight.
With its 162-game season, baseball encourages us to take the long-term view. But with only 41 games remaining and a shot at making the playoffs slipping away, the Mets have to do whatever they can to maximize their chances of winning right now. And as a fan of both our starting 2B and LFer – as well as someone who thinks that Villar has been overhyped this year – it gives me no pleasure to say that when Baez and Lindor return, the guys to lose the most playing time should be McNeil and Smith.
So, when the announcers give their daily Baez and Lindor update, maybe they can tell us that Villar has been shagging balls in left field. In the majors, Villar has played 10 games in CF and five in LF. It won’t be completely foreign to him but he should start practicing now. And from the “Things I thought I’d never say” department, they can bring in Smith as a defensive replacement in the late innings.
I am a big McNeil fan, so I may be a bit biased towards him, but I would much rather see him in the lineup than Baez or Villar. McNeil has has a lousy year, and I’m not sure why that is. Some may be playing through injury, but I still think he can be a key piece in the future. I’m hopeful that this year is an anomaly for him.
I hated the Baez trade the day it was made, and hate it just as much now. I’d be surprised if he’s back next year, and frankly don’t want him. He’s an excellent defender but as Brian pointed out, he’s essentially a league average hitter, who gets to league average through high SLG and low OBP. As some on this site have pointed out, I think this was a trade to make a trade and satisfy the fan base.
Villar is another who is basically league average, and his production also comes through power, but it seems as if most of his HRs come late in games that are already decided. He also gets picked off more than anyone I’ve ever seen (who gets picked off 3rd?).
I think a legit question is whether McNeil’s star has burned out. People with true bat skills dont just lose them. Maybe he rode the lucky star and burned out. One thing for sure is that his BABIP has dropped 50+ points this year, In his previous 3 years he’s had an avg in .340, or well above expectation – dare I say into the “lucky” zone (a conclusion I hate BTW). This year he is at about .280, so below MLB avg of .300. If you believe any of this, then one would conclude he’s a better hitter that we are witnessing now, but he is not anything like the extraordinary BABIP years. That should be cause for concern. Add to this, that while 2B is his best spot on the diamond (OF? No thank you), he isnt doing that much to say hes special. Those shiny 130-140 OPS+ numbers could offset any defense, but if hes a 100 OPS+ the glove isnt reason to hold him.
Like may of our players, he should be open for moving.
Worth noting the same is true for Smith. Whose high OPS+ years (19, 20) were propped up by BABIPS of .320 and .370
Unlike McNeil, Smith is sporting about a .300 BABIP this season so, perhaps this is more “the real thing”, which would be disappointing. Even if a long term normal was a bit above, the OPS+ is not headed for the audacious numbers of last year.
Test
The Mets need to score more runs. A healthy Lindor should improve in the lineup. The way Baez played as a Met make me feel that Villar is the better offensive player at this point but the reality is that Baez will play 2B and Villar will sit. McNeil and Smith will share LF. Rojas should leave JD alone at 3B because they need his offense . With the time dwindling, I would prefer Baez, McNeil, Smith and Villar split the time and if one of them has a hot hand then ride him like they are riding Confort. Let them earn their at bats.
Baez, McNeil and Smith are a disappointment. Villar is a good bench player. JD is playing as well 2019 and has offensively produce well.