The minor league glass is half empty

The Mets of 2021 no longer appear to be a playoff team. Those hopes of getting healthy and on a roll in time for a playoff run appear to be for naught and the minor leagues are currently without two players previously ranked in the Top 10.

The Mets Minors column at Mets360 is usually pretty “Glass Half Full”. There is always hope coming from the minors and reasons for optimism. While the Mets do still have some quality prospects in their system. The trade of Pete Crow-Armstrong and the refusal to sign Kumar Rocker (even with the 2022 11th overall pick) leave the farm system looking to be about as weak as recent memory serves.

Add to this that the Mets spent meagerly on the international market and built their entire draft around signing Rocker and perhaps you start to realize the reason for all of these storm clouds.

The Trade:

Pete Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez

On paper the Mets felt that they were bringing on a player who could stabilize the offense in the absence of Francisco Lindor and get the often injured club into the playoffs where, hopefully, their injured team would all be healthy. Instead, the Mets have already placed Baez on the IL and have gone on a colossal losing streak. Baez came back and powered the Mets last win but is it all too little and too late?

Nobody imagines that Crow-Armstrong was the next Mike Trout or that he would single-handedly save the future of the franchise but when discussing the potential for an offseason trade this blog elucidated the reasons that trading him would be a mistake. Chiefly among them, he was the top center field prospect in a team that perpetually lacks a true position player worth starting there. He was a contact hitter with speed and developing power who could someday prove to be a .300 hitter with 30+ stolen bases and 15 or more homeruns. He had been ranked 8th overall, in large part because he had been injured this season and would likely have joined into the discussion for Top Prospect once he returned.

Looking back at Javier Baez some fans are likely under the misapprehension that the Mets can issue the shortstop a qualifying offer. Because he was traded mid-season the Mets do not have this option and Baez ends this season as an unrestricted free agent. Even then, it makes little sense for the Mets to make an offer to Baez as they have Jeff McNeil at second base and several prospects (Vientos, Baty and Mauricio) waiting in the wings behind J.D. Davis at third.

The Pick:

Not Signing Kumar Rocker

The Mets chose not to sign Rocker. They had an agreement and changed their minds and one wonders what they could have seen so late in the process to make them do so. The Mets had not expected Rocker to last to the 10th overall pick and many fans felt extremely excited for the team seeming to snag someone who was in consideration as #1 overall. Obviously the Mets saw something they were concerned by and decided that next year’s 11th overall pick was more valuable to them but one wonders if the team did not really do their homework.

Clearly nine other teams were willing to pass on Rocker before the Mets made their selection and while the Mets may not have projected him to fall to them, they had to have done some research. Clearly whatever information they had on draft day was not complete as the team changed direction.

It seems pretty obvious that a different strategy on draft day would have left the Mets in a better position today. For instance, their second round pick was a relatively unknown player (Ziegler) and was selected in place of more talented options still on the board.

Regardless of planning, the Mets are now without two of their Top 10 names from last month and Tylor Megill is graduating off of the prospect list. This means you’ll see a lot of un-earned upward momentum that is not the sign of a healthy farm system.

Updated June Top 20 Prospects

1. Francisco Alvarez, C: (Up 1)

It’s a week by week basis at this point between Baty and Alvarez sitting at #1 overall.  If you like ceiling more than floor, you’ll lean to Alvarez who looks like he could turn into a superstar catcher. If you prefer floor, you’ll like Baty who is already in AA. Alvarez scuffled a bit in the month of July but has turned things back on in August and, in particular, his slugging percentage should get people excited.

2. Brett Baty, 3B/LF: (Down 1)

For those concerned by Baty’s transition to AA, fear no more. Baty is off and running with Binghamton seeing his batting average and slugging percentage rise. The injury to Vientos, while bad for the Mets, has also meant that Baty is getting more time at third base than left field. The Mets might be considering if their top third base prospect could be an impact prospect as part of their 2022 campaign.

3. Ronny Mauricio, SS: (Even)

While the top two prospects have flourished in the month of August the former top prospect has seen his own stock take a serious hit. His batting average is dipping and he’s not managing much consistency with power or stealing bases to make up for that. This year has been disappointing for Mauricio and if the Mets system hadn’t been decimated by injuries and management decisions he’d probably be out of the Top Three.

4. Mark Vientos, 3B/LF: (Up 1)

This year was exactly the type of breakout that many fans were hoping for. Though he’d been injured for much of August, Met fans have to be optimistic about the future of Vientos, considering his 2021 campaign. The Mets will need to evaluate him and Baty with regards to a potential outfield shift but that is something they can work on this Spring if he doesn’t come back before the end of the year.

5. J.T. Ginn, RHP: (Up 1)

Going up to fifth in the organization is only going to happen if you are either playing really well or the team has lost two players ranked above you. Ginn has not been good in Brooklyn since being promoted and while that doesn’t suggest much in his long term development it should be noted that he’d done little to “earn” his Top Five ranking.

6. Matt Allan, RHP: (Up 1)

Matt Allan has been injured all season and may not even play any baseball in 2022. His status as the #6 overall prospect is only helped by a lack of qualified players to compete with even an inactive pitcher. Allan still has a ceiling as a #2 pitcher and the Mets will accelerate him after he returns to make up for lost time.

7. Alex Ramirez, OF: (Up 3)

One player who has earned his way up a few rankings is Ramirez. He has begun to shine as a prospect with St. Lucie. His August batting line is .259/.310/.481 and he’s ending the 2021 season on a nice strong note. It would not be impossible to see Ramirez earning a promotion to Brooklyn.

8. Khalil Lee, CF: (Up 5)

With the trade of Pete Crow-Armstrong Khalil Lee gets a bump from being a solid wild card outfielder with starting caliber potential to Top Outfield Prospect. His complete inability to hit in the majors aside, his season in AAA has been good but the Mets would be in a better spot if they didn’t need to think of Lee as an integral part of their future. (Not a strong statement to make about a Top Ten prospect.)

9. Thomas Szapucki, LHP: (Up 2)

Out for the season and up two spots? Without anyone to earn their way ahead of him and with two higher ranked players departing, it looks like Szapucki is back in the Top Ten. Mets360 has been high on Szapucki for years now but his injury track record is too recent and glaring to ignore.

10. Carlos Cortes, 2B/OF (Up 5)

Should Cortes be in the Top Ten regardless of the players lost this year? One could make an argument that the Mets Utility prospect has shown the hitting ability and versatility to  qualify, having had a splendid season for himself in AA. The issue here isn’t Cortes having an MLB future (which he does have), it’s that his future is likely not as a starting everyday player. He’s an extremely useful prospect but not someone who belongs in a team’s Top Ten.

11. Jaylen Palmer, Util: (Up 3)

While Palmer has potential, he’s yet another name who is sitting 3-5 spots too high on a minor league ranking for a healthy system. He played well enough in Port St. Lucie to earn a promotion to Brooklyn and is beginning to find his way at that level but he only looks like a mediocre hitter with a reasonably good eye right now.

12. Franklyn Kilome, RHP: (Even)

With the Mets 2021 hopes circling the drain the team needs to put Kilome onto the major league roster again soon. He’s been pretty good in relief for Syracuse since returning from injury but he’s going to be leaving the organization if the Mets don’t make room for him on their 2022 major league roster. This is the time for that audition.

13. Wagner Lagrange, OF: (Up 4)

Now playing for AAA Lagrange continues to work his way up through the minors towards his future as a major league depth outfielder. The dreamer in me looks at his 2021 and hopes for a major league starting caliber outfielder who can play all three outfield positions and provide consistent offense but the realist sees Lagrange as a fifth outfielder on a winning ballclub.

14. Dominic Hamel, RHP (Up 4)

The Mets drafted Hamel with their third round selection, taking him around where he was expected to be drafted. Hamel is a solid pitcher with a projectable frame and four pitches. There isn’t a lot of “Wow Factor” to Hamel but thanks to issues discussed above, he’s the best new prospect in the Mets system.

15. Harol Gonzalez, RHP (Up 1)

There isn’t a source for a lot of news on Gonzalez but based upon him missing the entirety of the 2021 season so far, it seems likely that the unspecified injury will keep him away from baseball for an entire year. The former minor league workhorse would have been a boon to the oft-injured Mets this season and will hopefully still be around in 2022.

16. Jose Butto, RHP (Up 5)

Butto was on the radar before 2021 but he’s legitimately established himself as a Top Twenty talent with his performance in Brooklyn and Binghamton. His power pitching numbers (generally judged by a pitcher’s K/9) suggest that his ceiling may be as high as a #3 starter and his control of the game (judged by a pitcher’s WHIP) could suggest even more. His pedigree as a prospect is all that keeps him from ranking higher. At the end of the day, performance trumps pedigree. Just ask Jacob deGrom.

17. Robert Dominguez, RHP (Up 2)

Make no mistake, Robert Dominguez belongs in the Top Twenty because of his stuff alone. His moving up in the rankings is purely because of other players falling by the wayside. The 1.55 WHIP and low K/9 do little to improve his stock.

18. Hayden Senger, C: (Up 8)

Senger has come back down to earth but his season was pretty phenomenal up until August and justified a Top Twenty appearance. The catcher swings very hard and generates good power when he is on. Another confusing element to his game is how he struggles against lefty pitching. As a righty bat this is not something you’d anticipate.

19. Calvin Ziegler, RHP: (Up 5)

The Top Canadian player in the draft the Mets took him in the second round to help themselves pay for Kumar Rocker… enough said. He’s a pretty standard collegiate pitcher and has a ceiling of a #4 pitcher if things break right for him. Certainly not a player you enjoy seeing in your team’s Top Twenty.

20. Tony Dibrell, RHP: (Up 3)

The season wasn’t going badly for Dibrell before the injury but it could have been going better. Dibrell is yet another player who is riding the loss of several names to move up the rankings.

Notable Movement:

• Justin Lasko, RHP: Having earned a promotion to Binghamton after a solid year in Brooklyn it looks like scouts may have slept a bit on Lasko. The live scouting on Lasko shows a bit too many walks but the results have been on his side.
• Josh Walker, RHP: He’s 26 years old but pitching for AAA and should be in the running to be injury replacement material for 2022. That being said, he’s still one of the few players who moved up the rankings on his own accord.
• Adrian Hernandez, OF: The season could not have gone worse for Hernandez who may drop from the Top Twenty out of the Top Fifty.