Jack Nicklaus was once asked, as he got older, when he was playing a round of golf, when he realized he wasn’t going to shoot par. He replied, “When I hit my 72nd shot.” When assessing the Mets chances of making the playoffs or winning the National League East (around 88 wins), the question boils down to whether they control their own destiny, or if there is some current imbalance that adds to their chances. Until they lose their 75th game, they are still in the hunt.
Today the Mets are seven games back with 39 games remaining in the season. Ideally, as they trail Atlanta, they would have seven or more games with Atlanta to control their own destiny. They do not. They have three games left with Atlanta and they are the last three games of the season. There are recent years where being up seven games with as few as 17 games left to play was not a big enough lead.
With a quarter of the season left, Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor would have to play out of their heads to make up half of the WAR the Mets have lost to the injured list this season. The Mets are ~15 WAR underwater from time missed to the IL from their myriad of players. That’s the most in the majors. This is because the Mets have not just had players injured, but their best players. Jacob deGrom’s injury alone basically cost the Mets five wins this season. Lindor’s missed time is another two or three WAR. This sets aside player under-performance. The offense is languishing at just under four runs per game, so even a slight improvement can mean a significant change in winning. Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto appear to be on the road to regression, and their return to career norms would change the run-scoring from under four runs per game to well over.
The last two weeks against the best two teams in the league resulted in a 2-8 record in those games, with three to play against San Francisco. There are “less disheartening” takeaways from that trip – five of those losses were by a single run, and the Mets had plenty of opportunities to win those games with at bats with runners in scoring position. Any sabermetrician worth their weight will tell you that the luck on those chances will even out…given enough trials.
The pitching has held up even without deGrom. There are rough waters ahead, as Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker have turned into pumpkins. Tylor Megill and Marcus Stroman have been strong since the All-Star Game. Rich Hill, acquired from Tampa, has been adequate. That may seem a little positive, but those three have started 21 of the 38 games and have allowed around 3.6 runs per game. Even without deGrom, the pitching is “okay”, and with Noah Syndergaard a possibility, the burden will fall on the offensive players (and their ability to prevent runs).
Just getting Lindor and Baez playing should improve both the offense and the defense. Will it be enough?
This is where the schedule comes in. Getting Lindor and Baez back just as the Mets move into 23 of 39 games at home, where they sport a .600+ winning percentage and facing the Nationals and the Marlins in 17 of those games sets the Mets up for a strong run. Starting Friday, the Mets have 14 straight games against those two teams, games the Phillies and Braves have already put in the ledger.
The Mets have the chance to get well in a stretch against two of the four-worst teams. The Braves will be doing a West Coast swing at the same time. The Phillies however could be a bigger problem as they will be playing the weaker teams as well. Philadelphia still has 23 games against the worst teams in baseball, including the Orioles and the Pirates.
Sitting seven games back with 39 to play isn’t good, but the schedule is favorable, players are getting healthy, and the season-long struggling Mets hitters should be regressing to their means. The Mets must close the gap the next two weeks.
Richard Wagner’s Brünhilde is warming up.
On Aug 1 my thinking was the Mets just needed to tread water til the cavalry came back. Instead we’ve s**t the bed while the Bravos got hot. And with deGrom getting pushed back and Syndergaard moved to the pen (at best), the cavalry looks less formidable. Lindor should help the lineup, as will a few secondary players like Peraza and Guillorme, and we’ll get some pitching depth back if any of Gsellman, Peterson, Oswalt return. The easier schedule helps too. But really, to sniff the playoffs, we’ll have to win 3/4 of our remaining games. Anyone see that happening? Is Lindor coming back going to help Conforto, McNeil and Smith hit like they’re supposed to?
The Mets went 17-9 in April. That’s achievable. And then they need to go 10-3 against the Nats/Fish.
Is it difficult? Yes. Is it impossible? Not at all.
It will rely on a good bit of luck.
When I first read this, I thought it said “Jack Nicholson” and I thought it was odd they were asking him a golf question.
As for the Mets, they just need to win the game in front of them. Day off today and tomorrow they go up against Sammy Long, who has a 5.72 ERA. They’ve got to win all of the games against unimpressive rookies and bullpen games and 5th starters.
If you go with 88 Wins to take he division, the Mets need to take 27 of 38 games, which is a .710 winning percentage.
For a team thats been behind in run differential for ages and lost their best pitcher, that somehow seems a lot to ask.
By the way, I dont care how lousy the Marlins are, even this year the record against them is presently 3-6.
All is not lost but we are close to the end. Making up now only 6.5 games thanks to the red hot Yankees, is just not something we will be able to do this season. The Braves rarely, if ever collapse, or even falter. A split against the west coast leaders would have left us a little more in striking range but it didn’t happen. Our inability to score RISP really summarizes our season even the time that we occupied first place for 90 days. We had many chances to distance ourselves from the rest of the division but we did not make that happen. The Phillies and Braves hung in there until they could retool and start their climb. A little early to start thinking about next season but not by much. Back to Cohen’s 3-5 year plan to make us a regular challenger each year and not once in a while. Didn’t mind the tease this year at all.
In theory, RISP in a given season is “luck”, in that players don’t control it. So that changing “instantly” is in the realm of reasonable assertion. Those players *should* hit like their career averages in those situations.
It isn’t a great situation, but as you say “all isn’t lost”, and yes, this year has been exciting.
Can’t see how a returning Lindor would do more than a healthy one did for the first half of the season. Baez also would have to suddenly develop plate discipline and give a s**t. Unlikely. Overall, pitching has exceeded expectations. Hitters needed. I keep Alonso, Lindor (no choice), Nimmo, McCann (no choice), JD (as DH). I won’t miss McNeil, Conforto, Dom.
Front office whiffed on numerous opportunities… Duvall and Charlie Morton come to mind. I dunno… mediocre is hard to live with… but we are all used to it.
Lindor has a “true talent” level, and he underperformed that in the first half, so he should likely return at his career norms.
I noted pre-season we needed to move some of this younger “near talent” for a higher level talent. We haven’t/didn’t, but part of that was due to injury. If Nimmo/Davis hadn’t been injured we may have seen someone else get traded.
The Mets are a below .500 team because the their poor offense and their ability to drive in runs has failed them. They need the score more runs to support the pitching and defense. The all stars, Alsonso, Baez, Lindor, McNeil, Conforto and McCann have disappointed. They need to step up now. They have an opportunity with the 18/37 games remaining (one has been suspended) with the Nationals and the Marlins. They need to win each series in order to win 12-13 games and even that won’t be enough. They need to have a great winning September. I’m skeptical but hopeful.
Yes, it’s a significant hill, but going 27-12 can be done given the opponents. If we were in the same situation but had to face LA/SF/SD (like the Braves do now), I wouldn’t be as optimistic.
Maybe,maybe not. When Wilmer is outhitting McNeil,Conforto and Smith you get a idea of how bad the Mets are. And Flores isn’t having that good a year.