It’s a good time to be a Giants fan. They’re in first place because they lead the league in HR, are fifth in OPS with RISP and fourth in OPS with the bases loaded. It’s the type of offense we expected the Mets to have this season. Instead, New York is 12th in HR, 14th in OPS with RISP and 13th in OPS with the bases loaded.
We all want to know why things are this bleak for a team that on paper certainly looked capable of having a great offensive season. Let’s look at a chart comparing what the top 10 hitters in PA for the 2021 Mets have done, both this year and in 2019, the last full season we have:
| Player | 2021 ISO | 2021 wRC+ | 2019 ISO | 2019 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | .243 | 128 | .323 | 143 |
| Dominic Smith | .121 | 86 | .243 | 132 |
| Francisco Lindor | .145 | 94 | .234 | 115 |
| Jonathan Villar | .171 | 105 | .179 | 109 |
| Michael Conforto | .138 | 100 | .237 | 126 |
| James McCann | .117 | 85 | .187 | 108 |
| Jeff McNeil | .112 | 92 | .214 | 143 |
| Brandon Nimmo | .112 | 132 | .186 | 113 |
| Kevin Pillar | .159 | 67 | .173 | 84 |
| J.D. Davis | .170 | 136 | .220 | 136 |
Nine of the 10 players have a lower ISO in 2021 than they did in 2019. And it’s not the case of older guys aging out of their primes. These are all guys that should be doing better, or within a few points of what they did in 2019. Instead, we see that they’ve fallen by at least 14 points, while seven of the nine have dropped by at least 50 points of ISO, with three of those dropping by 99 points or more.
Meanwhile, the NL ISO for 2019 was .180 compared to .162 so far here in 2021.
The ball was deadened prior to the start of this season, which may explain some of the differences – at least on a league basis – why ISO is down this year. Maybe that’s why it’s down for the Mets, too.
The other stat in the chart above –- wRC+ — was chosen because it scales everything to league average while controlling for park effects. So, slugging may be down compared to 2019 but on a league/park neutral basis, we see the individual Mets still largely struggling. Villar and Davis are essentially performing as well offensively as they did in 2019, while Nimmo is exceeding what he did in his injury-shortened 2019. But the rest are all down by a significant margin.
The remaining seven hitters are all down at least 15 points. That means their offense is down at least 15% from what it was in 2019, which is significant. McNeil is down a whopping 51% from what he accomplished in 2019.
Anecdotally, it seems that pitchers have changed how they attack the Mets’ hitters and those same hitters have (seemingly) made zero attempt to counter. How many times have we seen Alonso and Smith – and to a lesser degree, Davis – flail helplessly at fastballs at the top or outside of the zone? How many times have we seen Alonso and McNeil – and to a lesser degree, Nimmo – decide they’re swinging at the first pitch if it’s anywhere close to the strike zone?
When Sandy Alderson first joined the Mets, we were told he valued power and patience. He certainly values the former but it’s been lip service, or nothing, for the latter. It’s maddening to see the swings and misses on clear balls and borderline pitches. At this point I want to see Luis Rojas give the hitters a take sign on the first pitch in any RISP opportunity.
Does any team have a “Kangaroo Court” anymore? For those who may be unfamiliar with the term, it was something done by the players, usually the longest-tenured player or the one that teammates wouldn’t dare argue with, where they handed out small fines for not doing things the way they were supposed to be done. The image at the top of this article was of Frank Robinson, with a mop on his head, acting as the supreme judge of the Orioles’ Kangaroo Court.
If he wasn’t the biggest offender, Alonso could start a Kangaroo Court and hand out fines for, among other things, anyone who swung and missed at a fastball at the letters or higher. Right now, the Mets could sure use Robinson, both for his ability in the batter’s box and his ability to run the Kangaroo Court in the clubhouse.