Jeurys Familia has a 51-save season under his belt and this year he’s 9-3 with a 3.51 ERA and an 11.28 K/9. Yet anyone in his right mind wouldn’t use him in a clutch situation unless it was absolutely necessary. The hope is that Brad Hand can come in and be effective, pushing Familia down to the seventh reliever in the pen. A return of Drew Smith would be welcome, and would push him further down in the pecking order.
The one thing that Familia has unquestionably been good at this year is coming in and vulturing the win. His nine wins is tied for seventh-best all time by a Mets reliever in a single season. Ahead of him on that list are some of the best relievers in Mets’ history – Roger McDowell (14), Jesse Orosco (13), Tug McGraw (11) and Skip Lockwood (10). But all of those guys were closers or co-closers. And they also carried a heavier usage than 2021 Familia. Lockwood threw 94.1 IP and the other three guys were over 100 IP. Familia checks in with 48.2 IP.
Three times this year, Familia has been credited with the win in a game where he also earned a blown save. Then there was the game on Tuesday, where he pitched the ninth inning when the Mets were down, 5-1, and picked up the win when they scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth. And who can forger when Familia came on in the fourth inning, recorded one out and got the win against the Pirates right before the All-Star break?
No doubt we could nitpick some of the other top relievers in Mets’ history and how they got their high-win totals. But one thing that’s not nitpicking is seeing how Familia has done in a game-by-game basis this season. For all of the fancy numbers listed in the first paragraph, Familia has just a 0.03 WPA. That’s a mark that has him down with Corey Oswalt and Anthony Banda, rather than up there with Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo and Aaron Loup.
Furthermore, there’s how he’s pitched in big situations. Baseball-Reference’s Leverage Index has him doing his best in low-leverage situations, where he has limited batters to a .718 OPS. If that doesn’t seem great to you – you’re right. B-R has Familia as being exactly league-average in those situations. Meanwhile, in tie games opponents post a .923 OPS against him and games that are within one run either way, hitters have a .918 OPS.
So, when the game is tight, Familia turns the average hitter into Joey Votto. That’s not good.
And its not like Familia got off to a rough start and has been pitching better here lately. Instead, he’s given up runs in six of his last 16 games. So, how would a good manager utilize Familia? A good manager would use him early in the game or in blowouts whenever possible, in an effort to minimize the damage. Here’s how Luis Rojas has used Familia here recently:
7/29 – 8th inning down by two runs. Familia made the deficit three runs.
7/31 – 7th inning down by a run. He pitched a scoreless inning.
8/2 – 7th inning down by two runs. Familia pitched a scoreless inning.
8/4 – 6th inning with a one-run lead. He allowed a run.
8/5 – 8th inning in a tie game. Familia allowed three runs and took the loss.
8/8 – 7th inning down by three runs. He pitched a scoreless inning.
8/10 – 5th inning down by two runs. Allows an inherited runner to score.
8/12 – Comes on in the final inning up three with the bases loaded. Allows all three inherited runners to score.
8/13 – 10th inning in a tie game. He allows two runs and took the loss.
8/16 – 6th inning down by a run. Gives up two hits and is pulled.
8/18 – 11th inning up by a run. Allows tying run to score.
8/21 – 6th inning down three runs with the bases loaded. Familia strands all three runners.
8/22 – 7th inning up three runs. He pitched a scoreless inning.
8/27 – 8th inning down by a run. Familia pitches a scoreless inning.
8/29 – 8th inning up four runs. He gives up a run.
8/31 – 9th inning down four runs. Familia pitches a scoreless inning.
9/2 – 7th inning tie game. He pitches a scoreless inning.
Rojas uses him in just about every situation imaginable. Some of that is circumstance. No doubt he didn’t want to use Familia in a tie game on 8/13 but Rojas was out of options. But the manager has to take at least some of the blame for being so eager to go to his pen at the first available choice, night after night after night.
Six times here recently, Familia entered the game where the margin either way was three or four runs. That seems to be ideal. But when you’re consistently playing one-run games, that’s not so easy to do. But it shows some recognition that Familia doesn’t need to be used in high-leverage situations.
So, hurry up and get here, Hand and Smith. You’ll make Rojas’ decisions with Familia that much easier.